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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

63 with BINOVC. We take.

don't get used to it... It'll be 54 and 'soothing' nape rain there inside of an hour or two...

or not, but it is on radar and is happening along rt 2. 

Maybe you'll luck out and it stays N of you?  we'll see...

but, this warm front is doing it's overrunning schtick at perfectly the wrong time relative to the diurnal cycle... You can see it on Sat.  interesting... pretty much precisely opposite of yesterday.  that's what it means to live in this shit hole spring climate  - you get a perfect day and get butt-sore for it immediately. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

What are the chances of storms tomorrow? Seems like solid shear and some instability. 

There's a few base-line aspects one can look for ( duh ), which are better ferreted out by various tech and/or SPC dependency ...heh... But, just on the surface, ... fresh warm sector, with DPs in the 60s, along with ( probably ) more sun than the typical contaminated ceiling of the NAM driving surface temperatures into the 80s ... one would think we generate sufficient SB CAPE. 

That's A ...

B ... there is a S/W / mid level wind acceleration and tendency to destablize later in the day...

Those two aspects combined would lead one to think so...yeah.   SPC does place the breadth of New England in marginal assessment ...so, perhaps these rip and read appeals fit -

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I've been watching the models for that Thursday window too -

I mean ...it's certainly not high confidence, but that NW-SE diving wind max and associated 'dent' in the height falls can be interesting when it is a curved trajectory around a heat dome over the Ohio Valley. If you take the deep layer and rotate it some 20 or 30 deg, you have a directional helicity that is less engulfing NY Bite water cooled air mass  in the low levels...  In other words, WSW wind with NNW flow to establish positive shear, as opposed to the more typical SSE with W flow aloft... Given sufficient day-time heating and some theta-e ribbon slipping up ahead of it in quasi-warm sector ... you can get some things to happen.

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Looking at this loop,  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 ... really argues for an abrupt improvement in sky and air condition through the afternoon.  Line from ~ HFD to ALB it smartly clears out and looking at Wunder's layout for temp there a suggestion that whether diabatic or warm frontal ... the temp responds upward when that demarcation succeeds a given location.  

It'll be fascinating watching as/how the atmosphere creatively f's this up and prevents substantive heating east of present :axe:

 

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Interesting... I was thinking that as this mid level stuff peeled away on Sat over this last hour it would begin to expose a lower level good old fashioned pooled strata goop east of the Berk's but that does not appear to be happening...

Looks like we really do have a decent shot of going instantly clear/mostly clear over the next hour to two hours, west to east...

But, not sure this really represents the warm side of the warm front... Using Wunderground's layout of temps/wind/dps ...the front appears to slice SE from eastern NY through western CT this hour... The clearing may in fact take place before the boundary really gets through down to the surface.  

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the true warm frontal axis hasn't lifted through despite the abrupt sun onset...  I mean sometimes as the sun comes during wfrontal passage it demarcates the end of the lifting along that axis/concomitant with deep mixed barotropic region arriving ...  However, as TCU are erupting along an arced axis upstate NY to NW of Albany... that diffusely is where the residual lifting axis is... It'll likely spread through the region over the next several hours.  And I wonder if we may see some convection yet erupt along and N of the Pike or Rt 2

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Severe thunderstorm watch for Western Mass, VT and extreme W NH.  Sun is out and temps rising up here.

No shit .. huh - I just posted some of my own thoughts that it look interesting in that area ... wasnt' shootin for that

 

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