May 2019 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Enjoy BN temps and AN precip.

All May right? 

Ok lines drawn in sand 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The funny thing is, a few of us weenies along with a red tagger or two, maybe including you(?) like to joke about the -NAO showing up in April after it was a no-show all winter but I feel like we have done this dance a few times in the past 10-15 years.   We have a winter pattern that would be naked back flips "if only that blocking had been in place" and then it shows up 60 days too late to give anyone in NE that HECS but just in time to throw April and May into the weenie purgatory of clouds and 50F.

Yeah ... I actually am not entirely sure what the annual NAO has been ... speaking to the last 10 years . 

However, I do tend to agree that we've seen an "unfair" repetition of springs that slipped backward into cool and/or "wet seemingly cool by force of misery alone" ... perhaps even exceeding climo by a little ( or a lot ).  Even to the extent of stymied green up in some years - ...others have already noted the bud-to-leaf unfurling has slowed even this year in recent week(s). 

Something's causing that tendency to play-out.  I think it's seven of the last ten years have had either  below normal AMJ's ...or, the result took place as though deviously plotted to make neutral-above 'seem' negative to the senses...  In the purely commiserative sense... when that happens it does feel deliberate.  

I almost wonder ... it's like a hemisphere that loses winter gradient and suddenly ...these neggie fields were always there but are no longer being muted. Allowed to emerge, because the primary influence yields to the secondary ...tertiary factors and so on. 

The atmosphere does that ... For those of us who may have learned about 'scaling equations', that process assesses orders of magnitude influence (theoretical if not observed ) on an x-y matrix ...Then derives a kind of polynomial expression with the most dominant factors closest to the x-y cross hair.  Increasingly weaker influences farther down the x axis.  'Look something like this ...   

X = exp1   + exp2   + exp3  + exp4 + .... expn     

Where each expn could be some fantastically complex geophysical variable derivative ..or relatively simple one, in their own rites. Their position in the polynomial result is not based upon their complexity, ...just literally on relative ability to motivate a system. 

If you can imagine that ( if not know what I'm talking about...) ...I'd put the scream gradient saturation issue I've seen over recent years near the dominant side ... or 'exp1' in that pseudo example. And maybe the -NAO around exp3 or even 4... The EPO may be exp2... which makes intuitive sense, because the Pacific Basin is a ginormous force in the general circulation ambiance of the planet, and since the EPO is essentially a dumpster for whatever is exhausting (wave dispersion) out of the pacific-atmospheric coupled environment, it's influence should be set as more dominant than the NAO, in general.  

But, now that we've relaxed the screaming gradient saturation ... exp1 goes away... Or perhaps it's relative magnitude shifts much further to the right... Thus, exp2 becomes exp1, and 3 pops to 2 and they all shift.  These are also moving parts ... they don't shift in order either... they can all be changing in significance by multiple expression positions ...some staying the same while others move around them... and on and so forth...  It's actually a fascinating technique to bring the initial observation --> hypothesis phase of the scientific process and have it be more than merely guess.  Believe it or not... natural postulators, or those that are good at synthesizing ideas from available data, may do a good bit of that innately in the abstraction of the mind.  

I'm babbling... Simply put, as the gradient of winter has relaxed, the under-lying 'tendency' for -NAO (-EPO) may be surfacing/taking over...  I tend to agree with Weatherwiz there that climo and jet destruction/migration, concomitant with warm season onset ... proobably moves -NAO's off exp1 at some point too.  And who knows what the scaled equation of the summer looks like...   By the way, the AMO is supposedly flipping negative in the multi-decade oscillatory trend analysis... and usually, the tripolar SST distribution correlates with the -NAO... so if it helps, that could be why there is an underpin -

I tell you... speak of the devil, massive changes on the 00z Euro...  It's one run, but the 850 mb temperature complexion is much, much warmer everywhere from Montana to NF along the 45th parallel, with a general vibe of the -NAO tendency to be less dominating...     

[Spanks45]

28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mon Tuesday next week look pretty sweet. EPS looks like we get into a BN yet sunny dry pattern starting in a week or so.  COC season can begin at anytime please. Last night at my wifes game it was pretty chilly. 47 degrees here now. Wish I lived near DXR today

Hoping we get into some sun today....4 out of 6 days the heat has kicked on while its in the 80s sw of here in PA.

[CoastalWx]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All May right? 

Ok lines drawn in sand 

 Always putting words in the mouth.

[weatherwiz]

I think there is a huge misconception with regards to the NAO (at least from what I've understand regarding it). A negative NAO alone (where you have a prolonged negative phase) is not very good for snow and results in a suppressed and a weaker storm track. The benefit of a -NAO comes from when the NAO is in the transition phase. 

Anyways..and this is something I've wanted to get into researching and perhaps I can begin this soon, but I think as we have become farther along in the time line of life and we are adding to the data set, the NAO doesn't have the "power" as we all have thought...event 10 years ago. First off, there is way more to than just the phase of the NAO...in fact phase alone is extremely minute (IMO). What's more important is the structure and placement of the anomalies and how the wavelengths are behaving in between the Pacific configuration and the configuration leading to the -NAO. 

I know numbers have favored better odds for snow during -NAO vs. +NAO periods, but you can't use that alone to make a true justification. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... coc ...right...

Watch us go right into 90 F plausibility regimes - I love the general assumption if not entitlement to certain types of weather we play around with.  I also love it when those perceptions fail. 

I love that Farside cartoon where Larson's illustration features two hapless, tattered ragged individuals stooped over a brackish water seep up under a single desert palm ... while the sun has clearly been drawn to symbolize blazing away over the scene... Instead of indulging in life, one turns his head to the other and says, " What? No cups!"

I hope this stolen spring ... skips the 'cups' and goes right to a torrid hell -  

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Always putting words in the mouth.

So you think June is shot too?

[HimoorWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So you think June is shot too?

Pretty sure Scott was implying BN temps and well AN precip for all of JJA with two canes likely in August!  Have to learn to read properly between the lines.    

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So you think June is shot too?

The Tarmac season is here. Time to force extremes on the warm side. It does seem like you guys have a window to get warm next week if WF can make it through for a day or so.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The Tarmac season is here. Time to force extremes on the warm side.

I'll go out on a limb and say that he thinks June will be above average as well regardless of pattern.

If ever there was a time to lean BN this first part of May is it.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think there is a huge misconception with regards to the NAO (at least from what I've understand regarding it). A negative NAO alone (where you have a prolonged negative phase) is not very good for snow and results in a suppressed and a weaker storm track. The benefit of a -NAO comes from when the NAO is in the transition phase. 

Anyways..and this is something I've wanted to get into researching and perhaps I can begin this soon, but I think as we have become farther along in the time line of life and we are adding to the data set, the NAO doesn't have the "power" as we all have thought...event 10 years ago. First off, there is way more to than just the phase of the NAO...in fact phase alone is extremely minute (IMO). What's more important is the structure and placement of the anomalies and how the wavelengths are behaving in between the Pacific configuration and the configuration leading to the -NAO. 

I know numbers have favored better odds for snow during -NAO vs. +NAO periods, but you can't use that alone to make a true justification. 

This is true... 

General concept:  Heather Archembault's statistic science/approach really should be extended everywhere on the planet, earth, sea and air.  All teleconnectors that are in the process of changing from some beginning point of erstwhile static consistency, are signaling the mass-field they represent is entering a phase where they are no longer in equilibrium ...

Wind... clouds... cyclones... fronts on synoptic charts, low and highs... hurricanes and tornadoes ...really at all scales...  these are all just the physical manifestation of that. System imbalance finding its way toward a new equilibrium post some forcing passing through.  Blah blah.. 

H.A.'s science was primarily with the PNA ... but, she does explain how there is lesser albeit greater than mere noise, similar correlation between modal changes in the NAO with eastern N/A precipitation events...  and the point presently is, EPO...WPO.... Indian ocean this... SOI that... it's all the same.

And by the way, some of us have been trying to point this out for more than 10 years... and that statically neggie NAOs don't necessarily deserve the pom-pom waving hip clicking leg kicking celebration folks tend to give it.  But we're all just whispers in the din of public vitriol on this/these sort of social-media outlet so ...heh, can't complain.  

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is true... 

General concept:  Heather Archembault's statistic science/approach really should be extended everywhere on the planet, earth, sea and air.  All teleconnectors that are in the process of changing from some beginning point of erstwhile static consistency, are signaling the mass-field they represent is entering a phase where they are no longer in equilibrium ...

Wind... clouds... cyclones... fronts on synoptic charts, low and highs... hurricanes and tornadoes ...really at all scales...  these are all just the physical manifestation of that. System imbalance finding its way toward a new equilibrium post some forcing passing through.  Blah blah.. 

H.A.'s science was primarily with the PNA ... but, she does explain how there is lesser albeit greater than mere noise, similar correlation between modal changes in the NAO with eastern N/A precipitation events...  and the point presently is, EPO...WPO.... Indian ocean this... SOI that... it's all the same.

And by the way, some of us have been trying to point this out for more than 10 years... and that statically neggie NAOs don't necessarily deserve the pom-pom waving hip clicking leg kicking celebration folks tend to give it.  But we're all just whispers in the din of public vitriol on this/these sort of social-media outlet so ...heh, can't complain.  

Extremely well-written post. This explains it all quite well. 

How I see it is the Pacific teleconnectors hold importance in shaping how active the pattern will be and will deliver us the ingredients we need (shortwave energy, jet energy, etc)...then the evolution of the Atlantic teleconnectors (NAO/AO) will then re-define these goods and will work to influence where the trough axis will become orientated, where it will become defined, and how it evolves. 

The stigma probably evolved from incorrectly interpreting research regarding NAO/NE snow events and just looking at the fact that the NAO happened to have the word negative to the left of it. Very similar to when everyone would go gung-ho over weak La Nina's being epic snow producers b/c of 1995-1996. 

[Brian5671]

Hazy sun here, 56

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hazy sun here, 56

Hi res vis loop does reveal an under-cast of denser strata pushing actively through NE CT toward the SW ... most likely the 10 am thrust of the BD suggested by some recent higher res meso model types. 

It'll work it's way through the state mid day and you should be good and set up proper with eat-shit weather by the end of the work day.   Enjoy

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like diarrhea pattern for the first half of May....back into hibernation now.

 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if we'll see a few marginal severe t'storms across NNJ today...like right along the boundary. Some decent elevated CAPE and modest shear. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hi res vis loop does reveal an under-cast of denser strata pushing actively through NE CT toward the SW ... most likely the 10 am thrust of the BD suggested by some recent higher res meso model types. 

It'll work it's way through the state mid day and you should be good and set up proper with eat-shit weather by the end of the work day.   Enjoy

Yeah, I'd say 5-6pm arrival here.  I'll take the sun in the meantime!   Lunchtime walk, maybe I won't come back...

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll see a few marginal severe t'storms across NNJ today...like right along the boundary. Some decent elevated CAPE and modest shear. 

maybe SW Fairfiled county too

[tamarack]

Drizzle and temps near 40 in Maine, except Aroostook which has some sun.  The 47° recorded last evening will likely be the day's max, 14° BN.  Much prefer yesterday's PC and 54/23.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like diarrhea pattern for the first half of May....back into hibernation now.

 

mm... there is a warmer look next week on the primaries ...  but, it's also a continuity break so we'll see - ..not vote of confidence ... If not?  sure - 86 this pig

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Drizzle and temps near 40 in Maine, except Aroostook which has some sun.  The 47° recorded last evening will likely be the day's max, 14° BN.  Much prefer yesterday's PC and 54/23.

[tamarack]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My place is under the middle blue arrow, Augusta the rightmost one.  Blecchhhh!!

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... looking at the teleconnectors ... the operational 06z GFS/00z Euro blend may be rushing mid latitude height rise and warm lower tropospheric thickness bulging into the OV for mid/late next week.. 

That would be my first guess...buuut, there is one plausible hold out-hope for warm/spring enthusiasts. The wave lengths are shrinking and the gradient is relaxing in these guidances, also ... That characteristic is actually agreeable to climatology for the circulation of the hemisphere as we kick off the book-end warm season month of May... It's happened rather abruptly I must say, too...kind of makes me wonder if a season 'switch' of sorts was tripped and we're running some seasonal version stuff... but whatever.  The Euro sustains a negative NAO with blocking ridge near D. Straight and Greenland, while allowing an MA ridge to take over our days down here in its mid/ext range - a total circumstance you would not like find even as near as a month ago...  

So there are changes afoot - how those parlay will be seen.  We could also still get a reprieve Saturday....  I mean, the Euro looks like low cloud light wind 850 of +6 to +9 N to S ...  hell, if we can sneak enough of those days, those of us blaming god himself will have to eat crow - me

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Different graphic than usual...most textbooks have that the exact opposite way...colder air moving up windward slopes and warmer air coming back down on lee side, ha.  

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Drizzle and temps near 40 in Maine, except Aroostook which has some sun.  The 47° recorded last evening will likely be the day's max, 14° BN.  Much prefer yesterday's PC and 54/23.

43/43 here with sheet drizzle.  Lovely day.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My place is under the middle blue arrow, Augusta the rightmost one.  Blecchhhh!!

Haha...tru -

I mean ...those proportions are conceptually correct ...  There is a curl vector/tendency always in situ because our geographic topographic curse.   Lee-side mountain curl/vortices ... but at a large scale, this is always in position; such that as the prevailing wind field moves west to east over top...there is a natural DVM tendency that is physically driven back west at lower levels, at all times.  It's a 'built in vector.'  That's how one should think about it. 

Such that given very least excuse imaginable... BD WILL fill that void in as those more physical vectors are then superimposed over the canvased vector that counter/NE or E.   Throw in that there is a cold ocean with a slab of positive-static stability right next to that lower topospheric counter source, you end up with a three-factored gang-bang on on this region's springs.

This is literally a Terran circumstance ... it's probably a miracle it ever touches 80 before June first around here...yet it does... sometimes get hot. The other forces that can at times counter-man the limitations that places like Detroit/west of the Hudson don't have to deal with as much.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Different graphic than usual...most textbooks have that the exact opposite way...colder air moving up windward slopes and warmer air coming back down on lee side, ha.  

didn't mean the colors to signify warm or cool... heh, but obvious why one might see it that way. 

I just used that to differentiate conceptual restoring fields/wind trajectories more clearly.. 

Ironically, in this case, it probably is a warm overlay and a cool, static stability curl...because the curl is getting an infusion of fresh polar shart from the Labrador anus.  But that cold  idea...that's probably a bias to visualize that as it's cold air/oreographic snow that's sought.   In fact, when the mountain forcing is warm sourced, that would actually be even conducive to the lee-side coastal plain getting screwed because of basic hydrostatic arguments... so I'm glad I drew it red     

When the wind is cold coming over... we CAA instability mix and the opposite happens is what I mean... in fact, the cold air gets warm katabatic some

[Typhoon Tip]

That's a beast of cyclone there in the Indian Ocean...  hm... here's a thought...  infusion of massive latent heat flux may send a signal through the WPO eventually setting up a pattern change... although - with r-wave structures sort of destructing into meanders now, it's hard to imagine a signal transmitting very successfully ... 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

didn't mean the colors to signify warm or cool... heh, but obvious why one might see it that way. 

I just used that to differentiate conceptual restoring fields/wind trajectories more clearly.. 

Ironically, in this case, it probably is a warm overlay and a cool, static stability curl...because the curl is getting an infusion of fresh polar shart from the Labrador anus.  But that cold  idea...that's probably a bias to visualize that as it's cold air/oreographic snow that's sought.   In fact, when the mountain forcing is warm sourced, that would actually be even conducive to the lee-side coastal plain getting screwed because of basic hydrostatic arguments... so I'm glad I drew it red     

When the wind is cold coming over... we CAA instability mix and the opposite happens is what I mean... in fact, the cold air gets warm katabatic some

Heh yeah it certainly makes sense.  I was just commenting on the very basic Intro to Met textbook graphic they always put in there about windward and lee side slopes, ha. 

This time around it seems everyone is getting a good screw job.  Even BTV in the banana valley is 43F with 1.5sm drizzle.  

Can't go west of the Spine to escape it with this one.

[Baroclinic Zone]

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that Mt Tolland?