May 2019 Discussion

[powderfreak]

Some decent Cocorahs snow reports for mid-May.  

Greensboro (Hill Farmsted Brewery) and Cabot, VT did well up this way.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

No idea where that link is on their shitty formatted web page.  I do a search for NOW and it finds sNOW.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

And then select "NOWdata" on the tabs...its the furthest one to the right

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

And then select "NOWdata" on the tabs...its the furthest one to the right

Thank you

And with that, I can officially stop using Wunderground.

[wxeyeNH]

I turned to snow for a couple of hours before dawn.  Just enough to barely coat the grass.  Low was 32.4F.  Precip total .57".   Looking at the hills real accumulations started at 1500.  At 2000 trees were totally coated.  So I guess in this area models did pretty good once the backed of on the larger totals 2 days before the event.

[Typhoon Tip]

If this site's undisclosed enterprise really wants to make money ... maybe it should appeal to the 99.9999 % some times. 

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If this site's undisclosed enterprise really wants to make money ... maybe it should appeal to the 99.9999 % some times. 

What does this even mean? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

What does this even mean? 

He's saying that we should focus on weather that normal people like. 

The one problem with that is that normal people don't spend time discussing weather models or forecasts. The people who are interested in meteorology are mostly sick like us...they want snow, or severe weather, or epic flooding, etc...they don't want San Diego weather. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's saying that we should focus on weather that normal people like. 

The one problem with that is that normal people don't spend time discussing weather models or forecasts. The people who are interested in meteorology are mostly sick like us...they want snow, or severe weather, or epic flooding, etc...they don't want San Diego weather. 

Yeah I mean I commented on it but yesterday had probably the most traffic in the thread that you'll ever see in May, outside some high end severe outbreak, maybe?  Hell the fact that you are even posting is telling, there was something mildly interesting happening.  

There were like 35 people in here last night when a normal May sunny day its like 3 at a time.  This thread grew more in 3 days than it did the other 11 days of the month combined.  

You can't ignore it these things...if you want to make money, talk about exciting weather.

[Damage In Tolland]

Damage sells 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Everyone is talking about snow in nne and cold rain in sne and yet Wiz finds a way, again, to bring up severe.....30sec of hail he missed after a night out drinking heavily with his weather frat brothers. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So where’s our heat next week ....sell?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage sells 

And you do a fine job of it, my little prince salesman. 

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage sells 

...no weather page or social handle ever made it big by discussing the model differences between +13C or +16C H85 temps at Day 3 and the possible implications high cirrus might have on those temps.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And you do a fine job of it, my little prince salesman. 

ROFL

[klw]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage sells 

My daffodils got knocked down last night.  I also lost a flower off a rhododendron.  Does that count?

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's saying that we should focus on weather that normal people like. 

The one problem with that is that normal people don't spend time discussing weather models or forecasts. The people who are interested in meteorology are mostly sick like us...they want snow, or severe weather, or epic flooding, etc...they don't want San Diego weather. 

Sort of... I mean, this site would do better in succeeding that enterprise if it had mass- appeal   ...   I'm not here to say "should" anything ... Folks should do what they want. 

I mean the snow in the elevation ... I find it to be not that unusual to be blunt.  Yeah it extended down in elevation below climo by a thou'  ... but, all this system's merit really was in my mind was another stolen period away from a warm month.  I disagree a little that meteorologist have to be sick - ... tongue in cheek or not, there is a bit of a concentration of one particular ilk of those tended to pre-occupation with one particular facet in this particular corner of social media... 

I for one have not heard much Meteorological discussion about the synoptic leading this, nor the wonder/awe of it how bad this is given the calendar ...  Evidentiary, the awareness and focus has been almost entirely lusting, with a coherent yet evasive 'hope' for seeing snow in one's backyard.  Sorry...that's not "meteorological" ... It might be a sickness, okay - but it's not very "sciency"

heh, whatever -

[MarkO]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

West Virginia? Or Waterville 

Waterville. Sorry for the abbreviation, was half awake and on my phone. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of... I mean, this site would do better in succeeding that enterprise if it had mass- appeal   ...   I'm not here to say "should" anything ... Folks should do what they want. 

I mean the snow in the elevation ... I find it to be not that unusual to be blunt.  Yeah it extended down in elevation below climo by a thou'  ... but, all this system's merit really was in my mind was another stolen period away from a warm month.  I disagree a little that meteorologist have to be sick - ... tongue in cheek or not, there is a bit of a concentration of one particular ilk of those tended to pre-occupation with one particular facet in this particular corner of social media... 

I for one have not heard much Meteorological discussion about the synoptic leading this, nor the wonder/awe of it how bad this is given the calendar ...  Evidentiary, the awareness and focus has been almost entirely lusting, with a coherent yet evasive 'hope' for seeing snow in one's backyard.  Sorry...that's not "meteorological" ... It might be a sickness, okay - but it's not very "sciency"

heh, whatever -

I agree with this...this is what drives me nuts with social media (although to be fair that's not the point of social media...but I believe there are adverse impacts to the field). Everything nowadays is "cheap" forecasting...snow maps, QPF maps, more snow maps, and so forth. It would be great to just sit there and read detailed analysis of like 500mb and all the pieces potentially involved and how each feature can influence the outcome. That discussion still exists here but nothing compared to the degree it once was. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This place is ‘sciency’ but also fun. If it were all just science, we wouldn’t get the traffic nor would I, personally, spend as much time here...which, would be a good thing I suppose. 

[dendrite]

Extremes drive ratings...just look at politics.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, klw said:

My daffodils got knocked down last night.  I also lost a flower off a rhododendron.  Does that count?

Absolutely. That’s damage and everyone likes damage because it’s exciting. No matter how much they pretend they don’t on here. They do and everyone knows they do.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This place is ‘sciency’ but also fun. If it were all just science, we wouldn’t get the traffic nor would I, personally, spend as much time here...which, would be a good thing I suppose. 

the fun is a great part of it too. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It would be great to just sit there and read detailed analysis of like 500mb and all the pieces potentially involved and how each feature can influence the outcome. That discussion still exists here but nothing compared to the degree it once was. 

No offense Wiz, but you are a degreed Met now.  Offer up some of that discussion you want to hear!  It was there at times, but there's only so many times you can say the ULL is over upstate NY and the energy is sneaking too far ahead of the trough and letting a bigger impact storm slip east and never letting good conveyor belts develop, etc.

It seems a little disingenuous to say the discussion has gone downhill while your giving stories about missing a hail storm because you were drinking while sitting in a hot tub on a Saturday afternoon or something.  You're a meteorologist (huge congrats still on reaching that goal), share that knowledge.  Those stories are hilarious and great and that's what makes this a community, though.  We wouldn't want everyone to take the personality out of the forums, most of us have known each other online for over a decade and have met a variety of people in person too.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, powderfreak said:

No offense Wiz, but you are a degreed Met now.  Offer up some of that discussion you want to hear!  It was there at times, but there's only so many times you can say the ULL is over upstate NY and the energy is sneaking too far ahead of the trough and letting a bigger impact storm slip east and never letting good conveyor belts develop, etc.

It seems a little disingenuous to say the discussion has gone downhill while your giving stories about missing a hail storm because you were drinking while sitting in a hot tub on a Saturday afternoon or something.  You're a meteorologist (huge congrats still on reaching that goal), share that knowledge.  Those stories are hilarious and great and that's what makes this a community, though.  We wouldn't want everyone to take the personality out of the forums, most of us have known each other online for over a decade and have met a variety of people in person too.  

It wasn't an entirely serious post haha. When need be the discussion is there. there is a good balance here of science and fun. Maybe sometimes the fun goes a bit overboard but so be it. As long as it's not driving people away or preventing folks from trying to add discussion there's no harm. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If this site's undisclosed enterprise really wants to make money ... maybe it should appeal to the 99.9999 % some times. 

We have TWC to do that. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It wasn't an entirely serious post haha. When need be the discussion is there. there is a good balance here of science and fun. Maybe sometimes the fun goes a bit overboard but so be it. As long as it's not driving people away or preventing folks from trying to add discussion there's no harm. 

Haha yeah it's always evolving.  Smart phones really changed it IMO.  Shorter messages but more frequent posts.  Before you used to have to wait to get home, fire up the Compaq tower computer purchased at Circut City and type out a well thought out dissertation.  Now we just have a running dialog and it's harder to write a Tippy sized novel on an iPhone.  

I always find your stories hilariously comic in a way...like the most stoked severe weather dude ever stuck inside at an ice skating rink (of all places, a cold icy one) in July missing severe storms left and right.  You're a legend for that stuff ha. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of... I mean, this site would do better in succeeding that enterprise if it had mass- appeal   ...   I'm not here to say "should" anything ... Folks should do what they want. 

I mean the snow in the elevation ... I find it to be not that unusual to be blunt.  Yeah it extended down in elevation below climo by a thou'  ... but, all this system's merit really was in my mind was another stolen period away from a warm month.  I disagree a little that meteorologist have to be sick - ... tongue in cheek or not, there is a bit of a concentration of one particular ilk of those tended to pre-occupation with one particular facet in this particular corner of social media... 

I for one have not heard much Meteorological discussion about the synoptic leading this, nor the wonder/awe of it how bad this is given the calendar ...  Evidentiary, the awareness and focus has been almost entirely lusting, with a coherent yet evasive 'hope' for seeing snow in one's backyard.  Sorry...that's not "meteorological" ... It might be a sickness, okay - but it's not very "sciency"

heh, whatever -

Well to be fair...there's really not a lot of "synoptic" meteorology involved in a May snow event...at least in terms of larger scale pattern. Wavelengths are shortened to the point where we aren't looking at a teleconnection to hint at a May snow threat like we do in, say, February. I know you already know this....so what does that leave to discuss? Well, the smaller scale....we did discuss some of the smaller scale synoptic features like how the ULL was a bit too far northwest to really drive a stronger conveyor....that's how we get something bigger like a May '77. This one just couldn't dig down enough to prodce something more significant.

 

While a few flakes in May down to 600 or 800 feet in May isn't historic, it's definitely pretty rare. My guess is we'd have quite a bit of discussion in here too if we were looking to push mid 90s on a heat ridge...granted, probably not quite as much as the snow slop threat, but still a lot more than typical May weather. This one probably had a bit more discussion too because some of the model guidance leading into it was a bit more threatening. If the same result had happened except it was the other way around....models showing little threat of snow at all, and then a few folks did get some flakes...the discussion would have been a lot more muted due to lack of anticipation.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Haha yeah it's always evolving.  Smart phones really changed it IMO.  Shorter messages but more frequent posts.  Before you used to have to wait to get home, fire up the Compaq tower computer purchased at Circut City and type out a well thought out dissertation.  Now we just have a running dialog and it's harder to write a Tippy sized novel on an iPhone.  

I always find your stories hilariously comic in a way...like the most stoked severe weather dude ever stuck inside at an ice skating rink (of all places, a cold icy one) in July missing severe storms left and right.  You're a legend for that stuff ha. 

Phone has completely changed everything...it's pretty wild. Heck...even with sports. I used to find myself doing whatever I could to never miss a game (Red Sox, Pats, Bruins, Celtics) but now it's not that big of a deal...granted too I'm not in high school anymore and have responsibilities lol. 

But there is only so much you can do on an analysis level before you just beat it to death. What makes this place so great is the unique combination of everything. 

[Torch Tiger]

Last call to install on the 12z gfs. Wow

[mostman]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Last call to install on the 12z gfs. Wow

I see days and days of no sunshine and low 60s on the GFS until about 5/26.