dryslot Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: GFS says severe threat this weekend! You have the talking version? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thanks Will , my only concern with a 9pm drive is being in such a remote area (western monads) where there will certainly not be plows out and if this did go to town down to 1500’ ...I’d be stuck ..huddling by the side of the road next to Jebediah Springfield’s house dodging falling branches and moon-shiners...But we shall see . I’m looking for roads in around 2K . What a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 12z GFS didn't look quiet as good...kept most of the best lift off-shore and it shows in the QPF fields. The coastal low looked to escape east more rather than northeast. I think you really want to see some 1/2" QPF in 6-hr type rates to drive snow levels lower. 0.25-.33" every 6 hours may not cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: You have the talking version? Lol called me directly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS didn't look quiet as good...kept most of the best lift off-shore and it shows in the QPF fields. The coastal low looked to escape east more rather than northeast. I think you really want to see some 1/2" QPF in 6-hr type rates to drive snow levels lower. 0.25-.33" every 6 hours may not cut it. Gfs would do that lol ukmet went east as well lol about 75 miles easy f’n Lucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs would do that lol ukmet went east as well lol f’n Lucy You can't fight 2019's blueprint not to snow outside of NNE! stick with the MESO models at this point anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: You can't fight 2019's blueprint not to snow outside of NNE! stick with the MESO models at this point anyway? It cut back in nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: GFS says severe threat this weekend! I realize you and I are probably a rarer bird in this particular social -media's returning user ship .... so speaking just to you - It's dicey ... deterministic t-storm days (kind of an oxymoron, heh) will obviously come down to handling set-ups correctly. That's difficult in the best modeling times - now is not one of those times tho. Current uncertainties may be because we're entering a pattern change ... where circa Thursday through next week is just sort of growing pains in the models.. As is typically the case ... erratic behavior in the models when patterns start breaking down. They'll go full on into a whiplash mass-field regime change... at others, collapse and regress way back like there is no change. I think the continuity change happening at all, while at the same time, ...more than less preserving the SE height rises may be the take away. The dailies? Mm thunderstorms are the first thing the models will artificially trigger based upon rudimentary physical handling. Unfortunately, the lower dependability of any facet. Or it could all be a false/red-herring for said change...and it's just the baseline look in between -NAO/blocking reload. I'm not convinced of either. There is no doubt that the models are flirting with a warmer pattern though. It's just a matter of the veracity ...therein, extent of it. If I could have my druthers... I'd love to see that D 10/11 Euro extrapolation pan out that way... seeing 20 to 21 C 850 mb plume on deep layer well mixed WSW would be something to behold after this particular week. Just for morbid fascination - ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Pretty nice day in the valley, 55° and a bright cloud deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 let me know we see something like this again (5/77 500 mb): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Biggest Euro run of the winter coming up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I realize you and I are probably a rarer bird in this particular social -media's returning user ship .... so speaking just to you - It's dicey ... It may come down to this just entering a pattern change ... where circa Thursday through next week is just sort of growing pains in the models.. As is typically the case ... erratic behavior in the models when patterns start breaking down. They'll go full on into a whiplash mass-field regime change... at others, collapse and regress way back like there is no change. I think the continuity changes, while at the same time, ...more than less preserving the SE height rises may be the take away. The dailies? Mm thunderstorms are the first thing the models were artificially trigger based upon rudimentary physical handling. Unfortunately, the lowest dependable facet. Or it could all be a false/red-herring for said change...and it's just the baseline look in between -NAO/blocking reload. I'm not convinced of either. There is no doubt that the models are flirting with a warmer pattern though. It's just a matter of the veracity ...therein, extent of it. This is a fantastic point and one that I didn't even think about...moreso b/c it's something I would think about more in the fall months. This extreme chaos and flopping of the models may very well be hints at a pattern change...or the models just don't have a handle on the pattern lol. Anyways...eventually climo will take over and heights will take on a more characteristic appearance and the pattern will relax. When I saw the setup for this weekend too I instantly thought EML potential...was disappointed to see that wasn't the case. As long as we are in this regime though we'll sneak in some threats (and maybe higher end type threats too)...perhaps not into our area but certainly PA/NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 High temp was 54F. Heading down now. A 37F dewpoint doesn't give me a good feel for accumulation tonight. Now let's see if Euro holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Gonna be a yawner Rainer for 95% of the region. Trends have been bad even up north . Focus on installs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Heading to Taiwan Sunday, it's going to feel like an inferno there with highs in the mid 80's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Euro looks a bit less impressive too. I agree with PF on the 6 hourly rates. You want to see higher than what is showing for more than a coating in the 500-1500 foot range. The highest spots would still get some snows..like Mitch and other spots down to maybe 1200-1500 feet, but if we want to see 6"+ totals down to 1500 feet and accumulations of any kind below 1000 feet, then what the 12z runs show isn't really gonna cut it. That doesn't mean they are right...still wanna nowcast this given yesterday's overperformer, but it's probably good to view this with a skeptical eye...esp outside of NNE above 1500 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro looks a bit less impressive too. I agree with PF on the 6 hourly rates. You want to see higher than what is showing for more than a coating in the 500-1500 foot range. The highest spots would still get some snows..like Mitch and other spots down to maybe 1200-1500 feet, but if we want to see 6"+ totals down to 1500 feet and accumulations of any kind below 1000 feet, then what the 12z runs show isn't really gonna cut it. That doesn't mean they are right...still wanna nowcast this given yesterday's overperformer, but it's probably good to view this with a skeptical eye...esp outside of NNE above 1500 feet. Just looking at the Euro seems like Vermont has heavier precip late evening and as cold as last run. It seems to be a bit less impressive for the whites. As you are saying this is really snow for the high terrain over 1500 feet. I now look safe from any power/tree problems. Maybe I'll fly my drone and bring down some snow from 500 feet above my fanny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Regarding the commonality of snow , last time ORH saw a trace of snow in May was 1994 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: They had it in 2002 8 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s what I thought. 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That was during the era where they had issues of documenting snow properly. They had 0.7" on 5/18/02 and they also had a trace of snow on 5/6/96. But yeah, the records during both of those occurrences were suspect...the ASOS snow days outage years. But the archived metar codes show the snow obs even if the historical F6 data doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just looking at the Euro seems like Vermont has heavier precip late evening and as cold as last run. It seems to be a bit less impressive for the whites. As you are saying this is really snow for the high terrain over 1500 feet. I now look safe from any power/tree problems. Maybe I'll fly my drone and bring down some snow from 500 feet above my fanny.... The 6 hourly precip was less over VT too compared to 06z run but I agree they are a pretty good spot overall. I would still think you get snow in the euro scenario, but probably not more than a sloppy inch or two. But again, we'll see. Euro underestimated the qpf yesterday down here by a lot as did many other models. Sometimes this time of the year we can see guidance mishandle the conveyors because of the convection and warmer profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They had 0.7" on 5/18/02 and they also had a trace of snow on 5/6/96. But yeah, the records during both of those occurrences were suspect...the ASOS snow days outage years. But the archived metar codes show the snow obs even if the historical F6 data doesn't. I had an inch in MHT in 2002 and the Salisbury COOP had 1". Yet CON shows only a T. I don't buy zero measurable. KCON 181302Z AUTO 02006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC012 01/01 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0002 KCON 181310Z AUTO 02005KT 2SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC012 01/01 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0004 KCON 181325Z AUTO 01005KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC012 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0006 KCON 181332Z AUTO 36004KT 1SM -SN BR SCT005 OVC012 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0007 KCON 181344Z AUTO 35003KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT003 OVC010 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0010 KCON 181351Z AUTO 35003KT 1SM -SN BR SCT003 OVC010 01/01 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 SLP098 P0011 T00060006 KCON 181408Z AUTO 35003KT 1SM -SN BR FEW003 OVC008 01/01 A2981 RMK AO2 P0001 KCON 181422Z AUTO 33003KT 3/4SM -SN BR FEW003 OVC008 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 P0004 KCON 181451Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 01/01 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP098 P0008 60031 T00060006 55013 KCON 181551Z AUTO 36003KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW003 OVC009 01/01 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP087 P0008 T00060006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 6 hourly precip was less over VT too compared to 06z run but I agree they are a pretty good spot overall. I would still think you get snow in the euro scenario, but probably not more than a sloppy inch or two. But again, we'll see. Euro underestimated the qpf yesterday down here by a lot as did many other models. Sometimes this time of the year we can see guidance mishandle the conveyors because of the convection and warmer profiles. Thanks Will. If anyone looks at my camera's and weather station early tomorrow and see's that they are not updating you will know more fell than 1-2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They had 0.7" on 5/18/02 and they also had a trace of snow on 5/6/96. But yeah, the records during both of those occurrences were suspect...the ASOS snow days outage years. But the archived metar codes show the snow obs even if the historical F6 data doesn't. And then 13 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I had an inch in MHT in 2002 and the Salisbury COOP had 1". Yet CON shows only a T. I don't buy zero measurable. KCON 181302Z AUTO 02006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC012 01/01 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0002 KCON 181310Z AUTO 02005KT 2SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC012 01/01 A2983 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0004 KCON 181325Z AUTO 01005KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC012 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0006 KCON 181332Z AUTO 36004KT 1SM -SN BR SCT005 OVC012 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0007 KCON 181344Z AUTO 35003KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT003 OVC010 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0010 KCON 181351Z AUTO 35003KT 1SM -SN BR SCT003 OVC010 01/01 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 SLP098 P0011 T00060006 KCON 181408Z AUTO 35003KT 1SM -SN BR FEW003 OVC008 01/01 A2981 RMK AO2 P0001 KCON 181422Z AUTO 33003KT 3/4SM -SN BR FEW003 OVC008 01/01 A2982 RMK AO2 P0004 KCON 181451Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 01/01 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP098 P0008 60031 T00060006 55013 KCON 181551Z AUTO 36003KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW003 OVC009 01/01 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP087 P0008 T00060006 Agreed. Those obs dipping below 1 mile at times do it for me. It's almost impossible to have snow at 33-34F for 2+ hours with vis a mile or less and not get measurable. Observer prob waited too long after it was over to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be a yawner Rainer for 95% of the region. Trends have been bad even up north . Focus on sump pump installs True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 As Kevin mentioned, this is probably nothing for a vast majority of people in New England and this forum. Just a curiosity. Probably nothing historically significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: As Kevin mentioned, this is probably nothing for a vast majority of people in New England and this forum. Just a curiosity. Probably nothing historically significant i think most knew that, still fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i think most knew that, still fun. Yup.. Sure beats talking about dewpoints and leafout and caterpillars 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 The kick east in last 12 hours kept this from being very impactful above 1800’ imo. look at echoes well east of NJ moving east while the stuff over NJ NYS W.CT stream NE disjointed looking like a nice 4 hour burst for many w snow above 2K imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Quite the localized outbreak in NC today. This cell is a beast...epic hail producer likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: As Kevin mentioned, this is probably nothing for a vast majority of people in New England and this forum. Just a curiosity. Probably nothing historically significant So you are saying this may be a historically significant snow- I've got a chance! I will post pictures if/when power is restored! Sorry I am on my 5th cup of coffee of the day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now