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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can extend that into ORH county elevations too for the SNE peeps....that's one reason I basically always forecasted based on temps in that 900-950mb range rather than below that. If NAM was anything below 0C at 925mb and we were going to be getting meaningful precip/lift, I don't think I've ever forecasted straight rain there. Regardless of what model sfc (or near-sfc) temps were trying to do.

Ive always wondered why it typically verifies colder along that swath than model guidance says...prob a combo of the terrain enhancement being subtle (models don't really see it well like larger terrain) and proximity to marine taint...no real hills to the east and it's closer to the ocean than other interior elevated areas, so models seem to smear the marine BL into them more than reality. Who knows though...might be some other reasons I'm not thinking of. 

Model grid spacing probably has a lot to do with it. Averaging out the higher elevations, and when you have boundary layer mixing like the GFS every 100 ft matters.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He loves to hear himself talk. He also loves talking about sweeping cold fronts. Every cold front is “sweeping”. Makes zero sense and makes him look silky 

I feel like on-camera mets use that a lot... "cold front sweeping through" but usually along with a graphic showing a cold front moving through.

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If we can get some flakes down to the surface and relatively pound, I think we’ll have a good shot to go near isothermal here for a bit. I mean we did it with no problem 5/25/13 when we got almost 1/2” on the rhododendron flowers. We went from like 40° to 32° in a little over an hour and stayed in that 33-34° range until the precip moved out. A little latent cooling from melting in an otherwise cold column will help. It’s damn close though. We could easily be stuck at a 36F rain with an occasional cat paw.

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Any measurable at CON will make that the latest on record. Current is 0.5” on 5/13/1914, but hey had 5” 5/10-11/1945.

I had an inch in MHT on 5/19/02 so I’m surprised they had nothing there for that. 

We had snow here in the valley in 02

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Seems to me reminiscent of that event in April or March where Gene was waiting for best lift to back in but that stayed east of 93 and lower elevations N of Downtown Portland Cashed in And otherwise you had to go to exit 33 to see snow on 93 . Could see that happening as it seems that first band of lift swings thru 8-9pm until 1-3am and snow with that will be confined to 1500’ or higher and be mostly west of Maine  then dry slot  then areas in whites have a longer period Tuesday of some poundage and areas n of Portland see more developed mid level banding flashing over potentially Rush hour as that area of life reaches Portland as storm closes off .

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lol...3z and already snowing up here down to H95.

Date: 27 hour NAM valid 3Z TUE 14 MAY 19
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1000   112   3.7                       65  10 276.9                        
  1  950   526   0.4   0.2  98  0.2   0.3  71  24 277.6 278.3 276.0 288.8  4.07
  2  900   959  -1.7  -2.1  97  0.4  -1.9  89  37 279.8 280.4 276.6 289.9  3.63
  3  850  1412  -3.0  -3.7  95  0.7  -3.3  87  35 283.0 283.6 278.0 292.7  3.42
  4  800  1892  -3.6  -4.3  95  0.7  -3.9  96  31 287.3 287.9 280.1 297.3  3.47
  5  750  2404  -1.0  -1.3  98  0.3  -1.2 123  24 295.5 296.4 285.0 309.2  4.63
  6  700  2954  -3.3  -4.0  95  0.7  -3.6 148  23 298.8 299.6 285.7 311.0  4.06
  7  650  3538  -5.5  -6.3  94  0.9  -5.8 158  25 302.8 303.5 286.8 314.0  3.67
  8  600  4162  -8.5  -9.8  91  1.2  -9.0 169  24 306.2 306.8 287.3 315.7  3.03
  9  550  4832 -12.4 -14.0  88  1.6 -12.9 177  25 309.4 309.8 287.7 316.9  2.36
 10  500  5554 -16.8 -18.7  85  2.0 -17.3 177  27 312.6 312.9 288.2 318.4  1.74
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We winter

Date: 36 hour NAM valid 12Z TUE 14 MAY 19
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    84                                                                 
SFC  976   279   0.8   0.2  96  0.5   0.5  21   7 275.8 276.5 274.9 286.7  3.98
  2  950   496  -0.6  -0.8  98  0.2  -0.7  34  20 276.6 277.2 275.1 287.0  3.79
  3  900   927  -1.2  -1.5  98  0.2  -1.3  67  36 280.3 280.9 277.1 290.9  3.82
  4  850  1383  -1.2  -1.5  97  0.4  -1.3  91  27 284.9 285.6 279.7 296.3  4.01
  5  800  1866  -2.5  -2.8  98  0.3  -2.6 106  21 288.5 289.2 281.2 299.7  3.89
  6  750  2377  -3.9  -4.3  98  0.3  -4.1 122   7 292.3 292.9 282.7 303.2  3.71
  7  700  2919  -6.0  -6.9  93  0.9  -6.4 152   8 295.8 296.4 283.6 305.6  3.25
  8  650  3498  -7.9 -10.8  80  2.9  -8.9 166  19 300.1 300.5 284.6 308.0  2.59
  9  600  4115 -12.4 -16.8  69  4.4 -13.6 176  20 301.8 302.1 284.2 307.2  1.71
 10  550  4773 -17.4 -23.2  61  5.7 -18.7 196  22 303.4 303.6 284.1 306.9  1.08
 11  500  5479 -22.7 -28.0  62  5.3 -23.7 201  28 305.4 305.5 284.5 307.9  0.77
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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Regarding the commonality of snow , last time ORH saw a trace of snow in May was 1994

And to think I thought last years mid April backdoor was impressive.  This is just insanity. Personally I won’t be seeing snow down here no matter what so I can’t wait for this sh*t to leave on Wednesday.  Gotta imagine this is the last of any resemblance of winter.  But for those up north I’ll be following and curious to see how much snow people actually get. 

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