Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Boy models are really struggling with the BL. Could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Trough of warm air alofting Here we come a’trowaling among the leaves so green 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Boy models are really struggling with the BL. Could go either way. Diane wants to know how the girl models are doing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can extend that into ORH county elevations too for the SNE peeps....that's one reason I basically always forecasted based on temps in that 900-950mb range rather than below that. If NAM was anything below 0C at 925mb and we were going to be getting meaningful precip/lift, I don't think I've ever forecasted straight rain there. Regardless of what model sfc (or near-sfc) temps were trying to do. Ive always wondered why it typically verifies colder along that swath than model guidance says...prob a combo of the terrain enhancement being subtle (models don't really see it well like larger terrain) and proximity to marine taint...no real hills to the east and it's closer to the ocean than other interior elevated areas, so models seem to smear the marine BL into them more than reality. Who knows though...might be some other reasons I'm not thinking of. Model grid spacing probably has a lot to do with it. Averaging out the higher elevations, and when you have boundary layer mixing like the GFS every 100 ft matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Whenever I see “trowaling”, like it’s a verb, I know it’s Sipprell. I hope he knows TROWAL is an acronym. He loves to hear himself talk. He also loves talking about sweeping cold fronts. Every cold front is “sweeping”. Makes zero sense and makes him look silky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: He loves to hear himself talk. He also loves talking about sweeping cold fronts. Every cold front is “sweeping”. Makes zero sense and makes him look silky I feel like on-camera mets use that a lot... "cold front sweeping through" but usually along with a graphic showing a cold front moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 If we can get some flakes down to the surface and relatively pound, I think we’ll have a good shot to go near isothermal here for a bit. I mean we did it with no problem 5/25/13 when we got almost 1/2” on the rhododendron flowers. We went from like 40° to 32° in a little over an hour and stayed in that 33-34° range until the precip moved out. A little latent cooling from melting in an otherwise cold column will help. It’s damn close though. We could easily be stuck at a 36F rain with an occasional cat paw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Any measurable at CON will make that the latest on record. Current is 0.5” on 5/13/1914, but hey had 5” 5/10-11/1945. I had an inch in MHT on 5/19/02 so I’m surprised they had nothing there for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Any measurable at CON will make that the latest on record. Current is 0.5” on 5/13/1914, but hey had 5” 5/10-11/1945. I had an inch in MHT on 5/19/02 so I’m surprised they had nothing there for that. We had snow here in the valley in 02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Seems to me reminiscent of that event in April or March where Gene was waiting for best lift to back in but that stayed east of 93 and lower elevations N of Downtown Portland Cashed in And otherwise you had to go to exit 33 to see snow on 93 . Could see that happening as it seems that first band of lift swings thru 8-9pm until 1-3am and snow with that will be confined to 1500’ or higher and be mostly west of Maine then dry slot then areas in whites have a longer period Tuesday of some poundage and areas n of Portland see more developed mid level banding flashing over potentially Rush hour as that area of life reaches Portland as storm closes off . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, dendrite said: Current is 0.5” on 5/13/1914, but hey had 5” 5/10-11/1945. Slow current but hey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Oh NAMMY that's even catpaws here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Diane wants to know how the girl models are doing. He said she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: He loves to hear himself talk. He also loves talking about sweeping cold fronts. Makes zero sense and makes him look silky Silky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 NAM gone wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 lol...3z and already snowing up here down to H95. Date: 27 hour NAM valid 3Z TUE 14 MAY 19 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1000 112 3.7 65 10 276.9 1 950 526 0.4 0.2 98 0.2 0.3 71 24 277.6 278.3 276.0 288.8 4.07 2 900 959 -1.7 -2.1 97 0.4 -1.9 89 37 279.8 280.4 276.6 289.9 3.63 3 850 1412 -3.0 -3.7 95 0.7 -3.3 87 35 283.0 283.6 278.0 292.7 3.42 4 800 1892 -3.6 -4.3 95 0.7 -3.9 96 31 287.3 287.9 280.1 297.3 3.47 5 750 2404 -1.0 -1.3 98 0.3 -1.2 123 24 295.5 296.4 285.0 309.2 4.63 6 700 2954 -3.3 -4.0 95 0.7 -3.6 148 23 298.8 299.6 285.7 311.0 4.06 7 650 3538 -5.5 -6.3 94 0.9 -5.8 158 25 302.8 303.5 286.8 314.0 3.67 8 600 4162 -8.5 -9.8 91 1.2 -9.0 169 24 306.2 306.8 287.3 315.7 3.03 9 550 4832 -12.4 -14.0 88 1.6 -12.9 177 25 309.4 309.8 287.7 316.9 2.36 10 500 5554 -16.8 -18.7 85 2.0 -17.3 177 27 312.6 312.9 288.2 318.4 1.74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 We winter Date: 36 hour NAM valid 12Z TUE 14 MAY 19 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 84 SFC 976 279 0.8 0.2 96 0.5 0.5 21 7 275.8 276.5 274.9 286.7 3.98 2 950 496 -0.6 -0.8 98 0.2 -0.7 34 20 276.6 277.2 275.1 287.0 3.79 3 900 927 -1.2 -1.5 98 0.2 -1.3 67 36 280.3 280.9 277.1 290.9 3.82 4 850 1383 -1.2 -1.5 97 0.4 -1.3 91 27 284.9 285.6 279.7 296.3 4.01 5 800 1866 -2.5 -2.8 98 0.3 -2.6 106 21 288.5 289.2 281.2 299.7 3.89 6 750 2377 -3.9 -4.3 98 0.3 -4.1 122 7 292.3 292.9 282.7 303.2 3.71 7 700 2919 -6.0 -6.9 93 0.9 -6.4 152 8 295.8 296.4 283.6 305.6 3.25 8 650 3498 -7.9 -10.8 80 2.9 -8.9 166 19 300.1 300.5 284.6 308.0 2.59 9 600 4115 -12.4 -16.8 69 4.4 -13.6 176 20 301.8 302.1 284.2 307.2 1.71 10 550 4773 -17.4 -23.2 61 5.7 -18.7 196 22 303.4 303.6 284.1 306.9 1.08 11 500 5479 -22.7 -28.0 62 5.3 -23.7 201 28 305.4 305.5 284.5 307.9 0.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Chicken preps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Light rain continues here, 1.14" since midnight and it's 41.4F. SWS here for snow above 1'500' tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Regarding the commonality of snow , last time ORH saw a trace of snow in May was 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Regarding the commonality of snow , last time ORH saw a trace of snow in May was 1994 And to think I thought last years mid April backdoor was impressive. This is just insanity. Personally I won’t be seeing snow down here no matter what so I can’t wait for this sh*t to leave on Wednesday. Gotta imagine this is the last of any resemblance of winter. But for those up north I’ll be following and curious to see how much snow people actually get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 13, 2019 Author Share Posted May 13, 2019 Non-stop train of rainers on the 0z gfs. Hope we don't see early tropical impacts this season, too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Regarding the commonality of snow , last time ORH saw a trace of snow in May was 1994 They had it in 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They had it in 2002 does yesterday count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They had it in 2002 That’s what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s what I thought. That was during the era where they had issues of documenting snow properly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 It’s over after this week. Sunny and 70’s next weekend and beyond it looks like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Is the NAM really onto something for tonight into tomorrow? I mean we could be looking at several-plus inches? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Full leaf out stunted and delayed? So many trees still with barely any leaf action at the top of trees and overall not really full on , full leaves yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s over after this week. Sunny and 70’s next weekend and beyond it looks like I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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