May 2019 Discussion

[78Blizzard]

Just took the trash out and was surprised to see ice pellets mixed in with the rain here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I jackpot on the qpf. 

Of course, ORH is north of the Pike. 

Oh' I know, it just seems to getting in on the qpf goods whenever we are talking Pike South or Pike North specials. 

We hovered around 44F all day with occasional drizzle after a few hours of -RA this morning.

[OceanStWx]

We increase snow totals. Now the chickens and even Ekster have some accumulating snow.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We increase snow totals. Now the chickens and even Ekster have some accumulating snow.

Let’s get a collapser.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get a collapser.

They increase to less than 1” for 95% of those living in AFD

Dunno if anyone has a condo above 2K in NH, maybe a homeless hippy will have a tent trouncer high atop the kanc 

[HoarfrostHubb]

One of the more entertaining AFDs of the season...

 

*/ Discussion ...

Miller B-type Nor`Easter impacting New England. N Atlantic traffic
permitting slower, maturing storm development across the NE CONUS.
Great Lakes closing low, initial Ohio Valley surface low transfers
to the near-coast, strengthening beneath H5 negative-tilting, under-
going occlusion while taking on a comma-shape look with time prior
to exiting Tuesday night.

Today seemingly a precursor to potential wintry weather centered in
and around Monday evening. Initial isentropic over-running along the
290-300K surfaces around H9-7 during the mature phase of Nor`Easter
development across the 40N/70W benchmark. Column cooling proceeding
per wet-bulbing and storm manifesting its own cold downward as we
begin to see cyclonic trowaling emerging into Tuesday.

Watching closely H95-85 temperatures, forecast to fall at or below
freezing Monday evening into Tuesday, likely to aid with developing
snow across the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Deformation along
the N/NW quadrant of cyclonic trowaling, indications of tapping into
higher thetaE offshore, mid-level moisture convergence up against
high terrain with cold air advection proceeding above H85-7 that`ll
steepen lapse rates, perhaps allow for potential instability. This
will be a very interesting event and feel there will be significant
snowfall accumulations at or above 1.5-2.0 kft agl. Dependent as to
the track and trowal, where better snow-banding can emerge on the
backside of anticipated comma-head low as we go into Tuesday. Still
some details to iron out, but preference to EC/NAM, the former more
so as it has backed the surface low beneath the mid-upper level low
which is climatologically favored. One immense challenge with be the
accompanying dry-slot to the comma-head low, as to where any precip-
banding will setup. Entirely possible it could be further W.

GEFS / SREF signaling quite an anomalous system and CIPS analogs
can`t ping on a similar storm. For mid-May, winter implications are
to be expected, and that being said, expect the unexpected. Also we
are well into the growing season, so with any snow there is a threat
to tender vegetation

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Great AFD , real weather weenie ...who is that 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One of the more entertaining AFDs of the season...

 

*/ Discussion ...

Miller B-type Nor`Easter impacting New England. N Atlantic traffic
permitting slower, maturing storm development across the NE CONUS.
Great Lakes closing low, initial Ohio Valley surface low transfers
to the near-coast, strengthening beneath H5 negative-tilting, under-
going occlusion while taking on a comma-shape look with time prior
to exiting Tuesday night.

Today seemingly a precursor to potential wintry weather centered in
and around Monday evening. Initial isentropic over-running along the
290-300K surfaces around H9-7 during the mature phase of Nor`Easter
development across the 40N/70W benchmark. Column cooling proceeding
per wet-bulbing and storm manifesting its own cold downward as we
begin to see cyclonic trowaling emerging into Tuesday.

Watching closely H95-85 temperatures, forecast to fall at or below
freezing Monday evening into Tuesday, likely to aid with developing
snow across the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Deformation along
the N/NW quadrant of cyclonic trowaling, indications of tapping into
higher thetaE offshore, mid-level moisture convergence up against
high terrain with cold air advection proceeding above H85-7 that`ll
steepen lapse rates, perhaps allow for potential instability. This
will be a very interesting event and feel there will be significant
snowfall accumulations at or above 1.5-2.0 kft agl. Dependent as to
the track and trowal, where better snow-banding can emerge on the
backside of anticipated comma-head low as we go into Tuesday. Still
some details to iron out, but preference to EC/NAM, the former more
so as it has backed the surface low beneath the mid-upper level low
which is climatologically favored. One immense challenge with be the
accompanying dry-slot to the comma-head low, as to where any precip-
banding will setup. Entirely possible it could be further W.

GEFS / SREF signaling quite an anomalous system and CIPS analogs
can`t ping on a similar storm. For mid-May, winter implications are
to be expected, and that being said, expect the unexpected. Also we
are well into the growing season, so with any snow there is a threat
to tender vegetation

Fun times in store for Pete.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Fun times in store for Pete.

And maybe hubbdave-to wineminster 

should banding go to town 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

For Non mountain locations i would prolly roll with an area like Randolph NH around 1800’ (grassy lane)

[ORH_wxman]

One slight wrinkle into this event coming up will be how differently the model guidance handles the midlevel circulations and conveyors given the time of year. You don't normally have the thermal gradients like winter...but this storm seems to have more than usual for so late. Pretty warm juicy midlevels to the southeast with thermal packing just offshore or over far SE MA/Cape. 

The event today seemed to be poorly handled by guidance until the last second. It developed more of an intense WAA swath on the north side than guidance had originally indicated. 

If tomorrow night is more intense than forecasted, that's where surprises could really start happening. 

[CoastalWx]

Today reminded me a bit of a SWFE. High thickness and tight cut off as dry/cold air filtered in from 950-850 or so.  Not the classic low level erly flow stratus coming off ocean, so plenty of room to evapo cool. You could tell it was dry as cigs were fairly high. Maybe not the true sense of a SWFE as precip barely made it into NH...but dual pol CC had a wnw-ese component to it. While not accumulating snow, I’ve been mixing for hours with mostly RAPL and some mangled flakes during heavier echoes. To do that in prime aftn May heating? That’s just not common at all. Down to 39 now.

[powderfreak]

The winter band is back together.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The winter band is back together.  

Like a junky lookin’ for a fix. Honestly, pretty cool for something this anomalous. Don’t expect much here, but hopefully orh hills and up north from you to Denny/Gene....:Tamarack and Jeff pull something. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like a junky lookin’ for a fix. Honestly, pretty cool for something this anomalous. Don’t expect much here, but hopefully orh hills and up north from you to Denny/Gene....:Tamarack and Jeff pull something. 

It's really cool that you guys were seeing frozen mix during the day in May.  I mean that's impressive.  

We'll have to watch banding tomorrow evening into Tuesday morning.  That's always how these surprise...We are too far removed from best forcing up this way but I still expect to see it snowing Tuesday morning when I get to work as 1500ft should be good for flakes.  

I really think Gene is in the best spot, but Dendrite too if it can drop another 500ft.  They look to have that crosshair of lift and -3C 850s and 0 to -1C 925 temps.  

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's really cool that you guys were seeing frozen mix during the day in May.  I mean that's impressive.  

We'll have to watch banding tomorrow evening into Tuesday morning.  That's always how these surprise...We are too far removed from best forcing up this way but I still expect to see it snowing Tuesday morning when I get to work as 1500ft should be good for flakes.  

I really think Gene is in the best spot, but Dendrite too if it can drop another 500ft.  They look to have that crosshair of lift and -3C 850s and 0 to -1C 925 temps.  

Agreed.

It's really surface temps that are steering the ship here, which always makes me a little wary. If you're off by 1 degree that means someone is either getting a bunch more snow or none at all.

[wxeyeNH]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Agreed.

It's really surface temps that are steering the ship here, which always makes me a little wary. If you're off by 1 degree that means someone is either getting a bunch more snow or none at all.

Glad you guys think I'm in the best spot.  We will see.  It's always interesting to see how any solar insolation helps in May.  It's around 8pm and Im at 47F while Worcester Airport at the same elevation is at 38F.  Just a bit of dim sun today but I was so much warmer than places 100 miles south.

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Agreed.

It's really surface temps that are steering the ship here, which always makes me a little wary. If you're off by 1 degree that means someone is either getting a bunch more snow or none at all.

My wife is pissed.  She will be in a semi heated cabin near Old Orchard Beach all week with a bunch of 5th graders, and you and Ek are bringing miserable wx...

Makes up for them frolicking in the waves in the 80s there a couple of years back.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife is pissed.  She will be in a semi heated cabin near Old Orchard Beach all week with a bunch of 5th graders, and you and Ek are bringing miserable wx...

Makes up for them frolicking in the waves in the 80s there a couple of years back.

To be fair, the month has pretty much sucked wire to wire. So it's not like she picked the bad week.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Glad you guys think I'm in the best spot.  We will see.  It's always interesting to see how any solar insolation helps in May.  It's around 8pm and Im at 47F while Worcester Airport at the same elevation is at 38F.  Just a bit of dim sun today but I was so much warmer than places 100 miles south.

One thing models typically don't handle well is the thermal profile in the southern half of NH when the forecast is isothermal. It always seems to be too warm from the Monadnocks into the SW Whites. The Presidentials, no problem, they are high enough.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Heat just kicked on here. Swell 

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife is pissed.  She will be in a semi heated cabin near Old Orchard Beach all week with a bunch of 5th graders, and you and Ek are bringing miserable wx...

Makes up for them frolicking in the waves in the 80s there a couple of years back.

A little trip to Nature's Classroom?  My daughter continues to talk about how horrible her experience was there.  Including them all being terrified by their bus driver's speeding to/from. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

We increase snow totals. Now the chickens and even Ekster have some accumulating snow.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One of the more entertaining AFDs of the season...

 

*/ Discussion ...

Miller B-type Nor`Easter impacting New England. N Atlantic traffic
permitting slower, maturing storm development across the NE CONUS.
Great Lakes closing low, initial Ohio Valley surface low transfers
to the near-coast, strengthening beneath H5 negative-tilting, under-
going occlusion while taking on a comma-shape look with time prior
to exiting Tuesday night.

Today seemingly a precursor to potential wintry weather centered in
and around Monday evening. Initial isentropic over-running along the
290-300K surfaces around H9-7 during the mature phase of Nor`Easter
development across the 40N/70W benchmark. Column cooling proceeding
per wet-bulbing and storm manifesting its own cold downward as we
begin to see cyclonic trowaling emerging into Tuesday.

Watching closely H95-85 temperatures, forecast to fall at or below
freezing Monday evening into Tuesday, likely to aid with developing
snow across the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Deformation along
the N/NW quadrant of cyclonic trowaling, indications of tapping into
higher thetaE offshore, mid-level moisture convergence up against
high terrain with cold air advection proceeding above H85-7 that`ll
steepen lapse rates, perhaps allow for potential instability. This
will be a very interesting event and feel there will be significant
snowfall accumulations at or above 1.5-2.0 kft agl. Dependent as to
the track and trowal, where better snow-banding can emerge on the
backside of anticipated comma-head low as we go into Tuesday. Still
some details to iron out, but preference to EC/NAM, the former more
so as it has backed the surface low beneath the mid-upper level low
which is climatologically favored. One immense challenge with be the
accompanying dry-slot to the comma-head low, as to where any precip-
banding will setup. Entirely possible it could be further W.

GEFS / SREF signaling quite an anomalous system and CIPS analogs
can`t ping on a similar storm. For mid-May, winter implications are
to be expected, and that being said, expect the unexpected. Also we
are well into the growing season, so with any snow there is a threat
to tender vegetation

Sipprell with back to back wild afds for all of interior SNE. Not happening Benjamin 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Accurate.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sipprell with back to back wild afds for all of interior SNE. Not happening Benjamin 

Whenever I see “trowaling”, like it’s a verb, I know it’s Sipprell. I hope he knows TROWAL is an acronym.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We hope 

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Glad you guys think I'm in the best spot.  We will see.  It's always interesting to see how any solar insolation helps in May.  It's around 8pm and Im at 47F while Worcester Airport at the same elevation is at 38F.  Just a bit of dim sun today but I was so much warmer than places 100 miles south.

Spent Mothers Day morning in ALB and left my parents house near there at 42F and moderate rain.  Arrived home to sunshine and 57F.  

Its all about the sun this time of year.  It was actually nice out in Stowe when I got home.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Whenever I see “trowaling”, like it’s a verb, I know it’s Sipprell. I hope he knows TROWAL is an acronym.

Trough of warm air alofting

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

One thing models typically don't handle well is the thermal profile in the southern half of NH when the forecast is isothermal. It always seems to be too warm from the Monadnocks into the SW Whites. The Presidentials, no problem, they are high enough.

You can extend that into ORH county elevations too for the SNE peeps....that's one reason I basically always forecasted based on temps in that 900-950mb range rather than below that. If NAM was anything below 0C at 925mb and we were going to be getting meaningful precip/lift, I don't think I've ever forecasted straight rain there. Regardless of what model sfc (or near-sfc) temps were trying to do.

Ive always wondered why it typically verifies colder along that swath than model guidance says...prob a combo of the terrain enhancement being subtle (models don't really see it well like larger terrain) and proximity to marine taint...no real hills to the east and it's closer to the ocean than other interior elevated areas, so models seem to smear the marine BL into them more than reality. Who knows though...might be some other reasons I'm not thinking of.