CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 GFS absolutely shat itself for tomorrow. Two days ago it had 65-70. Granted euro was too aggressive with the rain, but at least it incrementally shifted south. It still had the overall right idea of clouds and chance of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Looks like we should avoid the rain up here tomorrow. Maybe we can even score a BINOVC and tickle 60F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Meh... referring to my old staple, the NAM FRH grid ...this thing's a cool light rain event for 99% of civility... Those numbers could be off - ...it is the "NAM" of course. But, climo is on its side and I could still see the Euro and GGEM correct all of 1.5 deg warmer and that's the ball game... Any consternation over seeing snow one last time becomes wasted time - Heh, frankly? I could give two shits... I'm more interested in the overall panache of cold precip loading ... like I was discussing the other day... seems to be endemic to our climatology since 2000, where both Octobers and Mays are seeing these sort of occurrences of approaching and/or breaching marginality with increasing regularity. And as is such ...whether folks get to see white or not, this is just another in that 'seemingly' new norm - puzzling causality... And also, either way... a miserable two days of inclemency weather type set to either be endured or fled. Seeing as the latter isn't much of an option for most... we suffer. I think most would put the odds at 98% chance of miserable cold rain for everyone living under 1500ft or even 2000ft aside from the Mitch's of the world or ski area condos up hillsides maybe. Its sort of like a Tornado threat in New England on the probability scale...can discuss and discuss parameters till blue in the face but everyone knows how that turns out 98% of the time for the populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Latest Euro has some Monday night fun for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Latest Euro has some Monday night fun for the mountains. Not surprising... The other thing is that this system is probably overdone QPF-wise ... or suspect that to be the case. The system closes off quickly and there's no advection at any level almost immediately upon that occurrence from what I can tell, and that's going to make this a mister quickly... Which leaves only the elevations like you were saying earlier as eligible... Also - out of nowhere ... then here comes summer all at once in the Euro's deep mid range/extended... D6 has mid 80s over a vast circumvallate of the MS valley to southern Lakes this air mass bulges with amplifying riding into New England D's 9-10 ... Not sure I buy - company line... But it applies, because we're sustaining an awful lot of -NAOness look and the model just suddenly pivots the entire mass structure from Chi-town to Nova S. right into a reversal with nary a hint in previous guidance cycles... But... patterns have to break down at some point. You know it leaps to mind... often I've seen over the decades, when there's an anomaly, usually there's a counterpoint within temporal reach of it...either equal in the other direction ..or via the aggregate over time. This happened in 1977... that snow event ..and a cool snap four days later, were both offset by a heat wave shortly thereafter. Just one in countless examples ... we've been saddled with a cool look for a while and culminate it with ...whatever this thing turns out to be, and then a flip the script - wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is a maple mauler in spots. Good Lord. I mean WTF is up with that? Looks like 18z run lost it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Oh man GFS. Lock that in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Well there goes the sun, clouds now taking over. Today was awesome. Now we get to have 3 days of sh*t weather. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Sipprell gone wild in the afd talking SNE snows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sipprell gone wild in the afd talking SNE snows Just the higher terrain of the Berks, etc. Dang it looks nasty next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Oh man GFS. Lock that in. Listen, July is going to happen whether you want it to snow or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just the higher terrain of the Berks, etc. Dang it looks nasty next week seasons in season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Wow snowy NAM run at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 NAM has us in the 30's tomorrow afternoon that's crazy for May!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: NAM has us in the 30's tomorrow afternoon that's crazy for May!! Nammy is a 33° paste during the afternoon for the ol’ Pit1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Toss everything everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 We snow in the higher spots and possible a chunk of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 700 low going over BOS with deep, cold erly flow into Maine and NH. They snow...higher spots especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 43 and rain at the Tolland stem. Maybe Kev can sneak below 40 today. Another summer day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Not really supposed to use CC in May, but it looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 43 and rain at the Tolland stem. Maybe Kev can sneak below 40 today. Another summer day. It’s not going to snow in SNE Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not going to snow in SNE Tuesday They'll be at least flakes I think in higher spots in MA. Hopefully for you too. Don't give me that crap about not wanting it. The higher elevation fetish in you will have you get a tingle in the mid section, should you see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They'll be at least flakes I think in higher spots in MA. Hopefully for you too. Don't give me that crap about not wanting it. The higher elevation fetish in you will have you get a tingle in the mid section, should you see it. Yup. You know he's pulling for flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yup. You know he's pulling for flakes. We pull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They'll be at least flakes I think in higher spots in MA. Hopefully for you too. Don't give me that crap about not wanting it. The higher elevation fetish in you will have you get a tingle in the mid section, should you see it. Using his Jedi mind trick; watch he'll end up with 2" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Modfan said: Using his Jedi mind trick; watch he'll end up with 2" now. It would never stick . Not ever .. even if it were to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It would never stick . Not ever .. even if it were to happen Not saying it will but if it comes down hard enough it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We pull 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Ever since Dews started this thread, the pattern turned to azz. Certainly not his avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Sleet/snow mix here now. Big sloppy flakes and pings 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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