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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Summertime summertime....sum sum summertime

An anomalous pattern is setting up to deliver a spring nor`easter to
the region Monday/Tuesday. This will be accompanied by potentially
much cooler than average temperatures, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Given that the storm is still 3-4 days out, a good deal of
uncertainty remains in the details. Zooming out we see a shortwave
axis approaching southern New England with a initial surface low
ahead of the trough over the Great Lakes region early Monday. As the
low`s frontal boundary crosses Delmarva into the Atlantic a
secondary low deepens and heads northeast up the coast, passing near
the benchmark Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. Uncertainty
remains with the timing, both how quickly the system forms and how
progressive it is. The EC would have an earlier formation off the
coast by 12Z Monday, while the GFS and NAM are 12-18 hours slower.
Both Monday and Tuesday will be unusually cold for mid May, in the
40s and low 50s Monday while we may not break out of the 40s
Tuesday. At this point it looks as if some could even break some
`lowest high temperature` records. At the mid levels we see a closed
700mb low crossing over or even south of SNE with abnormal cold
through the column. In fact we can`t rule out the low probability of
some wet snow in the highest terrain of interior MA, though things
would have to line up just right for that outcome. Stay tuned.
Northeast winds will be gusty through the period, especially along
the coast, 25-35 kts at times.
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14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Summertime summertime....sum sum summertime


An anomalous pattern is setting up to deliver a spring nor`easter to
the region Monday/Tuesday. This will be accompanied by potentially
much cooler than average temperatures, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Given that the storm is still 3-4 days out, a good deal of
uncertainty remains in the details. Zooming out we see a shortwave
axis approaching southern New England with a initial surface low
ahead of the trough over the Great Lakes region early Monday. As the
low`s frontal boundary crosses Delmarva into the Atlantic a
secondary low deepens and heads northeast up the coast, passing near
the benchmark Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. Uncertainty
remains with the timing, both how quickly the system forms and how
progressive it is. The EC would have an earlier formation off the
coast by 12Z Monday, while the GFS and NAM are 12-18 hours slower.
Both Monday and Tuesday will be unusually cold for mid May, in the
40s and low 50s Monday while we may not break out of the 40s
Tuesday. At this point it looks as if some could even break some
`lowest high temperature` records. At the mid levels we see a closed
700mb low crossing over or even south of SNE with abnormal cold
through the column. In fact we can`t rule out the low probability of
some wet snow in the highest terrain of interior MA, though things
would have to line up just right for that outcome. Stay tuned.
Northeast winds will be gusty through the period, especially along
the coast, 25-35 kts at times.

 

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Summer of '69 maybe?

May of yore. They don't make them like this anymore. Cold and dry. The 24F for CON on 5/27 is absurd.

1969-05-01  63 27 45.0 -5.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-02  66 25 45.5 -5.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-03  75 47 61.0 9.4 4 0 0.01 0.0 0
1969-05-04  67 34 50.5 -1.5 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-05  59 38 48.5 -3.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-06  64 33 48.5 -4.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-07  59 27 43.0 -9.9 22 0 T 0.0 0
1969-05-08  58 41 49.5 -3.8 15 0 0.09 0.0 0
1969-05-09  63 57 60.0 6.4 5 0 0.53 0.0 0
1969-05-10  59 36 47.5 -6.4 17 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-11  63 34 48.5 -5.7 16 0 0.09 0.0 0
1969-05-12  60 34 47.0 -7.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-13  61 38 49.5 -5.3 15 0 0.02 0.0 0
1969-05-14  60 31 45.5 -9.7 19 0 T 0.0 0
1969-05-15  65 29 47.0 -8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-16  78 35 56.5 0.7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-17  86 48 67.0 10.9 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-18  66 43 54.5 -1.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-19  68 44 56.0 -0.7 9 0 T 0.0 0
1969-05-20  69 55 62.0 5.0 3 0 0.36 0.0 0
1969-05-21  64 35 49.5 -7.8 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-22  64 30 47.0 -10.6 18 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-23  66 35 50.5 -7.4 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-24  53 49 51.0 -7.2 14 0 0.08 0.0 0
1969-05-25  72 47 59.5 0.9 5 0 0.04 0.0 0
1969-05-26  60 33 46.5 -12.4 18 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-27  65 24 44.5 -14.7 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1969-05-28  75 39 57.0 -2.5 8 0 0.02 0.0 0
1969-05-29  82 52 67.0 7.2 0 2 0.01 0.0 0
1969-05-30  71 49 60.0 -0.1 5 0 0.01 0.0 0
1969-05-31  71 42 56.5 -3.9 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
Sum 2052 1191 - - 389 4 1.26 0.0 -
Average 66.2 38.4 52.3 -3.5 - - - - 0.0
Normal 68.9 42.6 55.8 - 303 16 3.66 0.0 -
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It's interesting how the Euro and GGEM blithely drill the column down as much as they do,  during the actual daylight hours of Monday. It's not like it's mid May, right?  For all intents and purposes ... but a month before the highest hottest sun of the year and the solar factor being so easily accounted for like this is late February - interesting.... 

In that/those cases ...if we do plumb the top of 1300 meter level down to -2 to -3 C temperatures ...then closing off a 700 mb surface running over top or a deg lat beneath the Pike... particularly, sustaining that look for a tortured 12 hours of translation crawl to erode what gossamer warmth below... it will snow even below 1,000 feet.

In 1977 ... there occurred 10-20" of snow in the interior from low to high... from a marginal set up around this same time of the year. I witnessed an inch of snow on Boston Common in 2001 on May 22nd from mere cold air instability and evening cat paw showers that went ahead and flipped over... I can assure you, there was no UVM from synoptic forcing...  It's not like it's never happened, so as I mentioned yesterday ... it really cannot be discounted.  I'm also rather surprised that Euro got even a bit more aggressive with the cold complexion now passing inside of 4 day's lead on this event - I just thought the other way ...and we'd see it inch back toward just annoying as opposed to insulting like this...

I don't like using the GFS for this event regardless of climate...  It's got a proven track record of embarrassingly bad pseudo-adiabatic handling in the boundary layer ... and this sort of situation, then considering it's failure to completely saturate the sfc to 1300 meter levels when up under UVM in marginality ... the model may not be capable of edging an initially marginal atmosphere cold enough in this kind of close-call set-up/outlook. In early March 2018 a strong nor'easter pummeled the region with cold rain ... but the GFS was 'right for the wrong reasons' on that ... I recall it had 39/32 during heavy rain predicted... What verified was 34/34 cat paws and heavy rain...  Then last summer, with 115 F highs predicted at HFD and BED during that early July heat wave, because it was consummately way too low on DPs...  97/80 ... fantastic for this lat/long no doubt, but again... these are examples of the GFS funky thermodynamic boundary layer handling..

 

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Gorgeous day on tap. A few nasty days midweek (awt), then we rip right back into more typical summer conditions.

:lol:  Summer. 
Partly cloudy, mid 50s and cool winds at present.  Here in the frigid north, my average temps for met summer are 74/52.  Mildest thus far in 2019 is a high of 67, low of 45 (not on the same day.)  Average for today is 63/38, which I'll take though I don't see anything quite that nice before next weekend. 

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Meh... referring to my old staple, the NAM FRH grid ...this thing's a cool light rain event for 99% of civility...  Those numbers could be off - ...it is the "NAM" of course.  But, climo is on its side and I could still see the Euro and GGEM correct all of 1.5 deg warmer and that's the ball game...  Any consternation over seeing snow one last time becomes wasted time -

Heh, frankly? I could give two shits... I'm more interested in the overall panache of cold precip loading ... like I was discussing the other day... seems to be endemic to our climatology since 2000, where both Octobers and Mays are seeing these sort of occurrences of approaching and/or breaching marginality with increasing regularity.   And as is such ...whether folks get to see white or not, this is just another in that 'seemingly' new norm  - puzzling causality... And also, either way... a miserable two days of inclemency weather type set to either be endured or fled.  Seeing as the latter isn't much of an option for most... we suffer. 

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