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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure. These guys agree but they also said cold and snowy winter so it’s an easy and obvious fade:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.countryliving.com/life/travel/amp27311759/farmers-almanac-summer-2019-weather-predictions/

They did? 

"November 2018 to October 2019. Winter will be milder than normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation and near-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will occur from late December into mid-January and late January into early February and in mid- to late February."

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In fact... I mentioned this late last November but of course... it wasn't really acknowledged, but it appeared the majority of cold snowy outlooks were engineered in this social -media and/or the ilk of patrons thsat dine in it...  

Actually.. to be fair - there is some conflicting source material from them... still, there were local fan -favs in here that were ...hate to say, more the outliers

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

+2F with clouds and rain 75% of days...yay.

I also think you have to be careful with how you interpret that. I don't think it had much to do with high temperatures as it did with slightly above average minimum temperatures...and not to go climate change, but that has become quite the common theme when we talk about these "above-average" periods...it's not necessarily b/c we're getting higher max's...it's higher minimum's. 

In the case of April...

 

who cares if it was 2F warmer when everyone is under their blankets with heads on the pillow

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I also think you have to be careful with how you interpret that. I don't think it had much to do with high temperatures as it did with slightly above average minimum temperatures...and not to go climate change, but that has become quite the common theme when we talk about these "above-average" periods...it's not necessarily b/c we're getting higher max's...it's higher minimum's. 

In the case of April...

 

who cares if it was 2F warmer when everyone is under their blankets with heads on the pillow

Pretty much ... 

those that blanket apply statistical spreads like that without qualification ...usually trying to sell something.   Well - 

Anyway, elevated nocturnal lows can certainly skew a diurnal mean toward positive ...and, well, since 97 % of us carry on in our daily lives between 2 and 5 am outside of the home and out amid the elements, we can clearly see the usefulness of having elevated lows making it "appear" like a warm month.  :wacko2:

Aside, not sure anyone really offered up a debate about averages?   If so... okay - no argument from me.  Not sure I know of any source that did, either.  So it was warmer then normal.  The issue is/was ...  shit-stuffed-down-throat weather.  Nothing else. 

When it's clad, empirically shown to be 21 days of measurable...with cloud products anomalously large the whole way,... and it's wet and cool when people really are carrying about in their daily lives, ... that means a lot more.  

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty much ... 

those that blanket apply statistical spreads like that without qualification ...usually trying to sell something.   Well - 

Anyway, elevated nocturnal lows can certainly skew a diurnal mean toward positive ...and, well, since 97 % of us carry on in our daily lives between 2 and 5 am outside of the home and out amid the elements, we can clearly see the usefulness of having elevated lows making it "appear" like a warm month. :wacko2:

Aside, not sure anyone really offered up a debate about averages?   If so... okay - no argument from me.  Not sure I know of any source that did, either.  The issue is shit-stuffed-down-throat weather.  Nothing else. 

When it's clad, empirically shown to be 21 days of measurable...with cloud products anomalously large the whole way,... and it's wet and cool when people really are carrying about in their daily lives, ... that means a lot more.  

Using BDL...the average high was like .6°F above-average...and that was likely skewed by 4 days where we had 2 high's of 76 and 2 of 78. 

You're last sentence says it all...this time of year where you have as much cloud cover/precip as we have you're not going to get an above-average month temp wise (at least not b/c of day time max's). The clouds/precip did help keep the min's higher and well the AN crowd can thank that. 

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50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They did? 

"November 2018 to October 2019. Winter will be milder than normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation and near-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will occur from late December into mid-January and late January into early February and in mid- to late February."

Yea the New Farmers Almanac had a cold and snowy winter. I forget there is an old and a new.

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Using BDL...the average high was like .6°F above-average...and that was likely skewed by 4 days where we had 2 high's of 76 and 2 of 78. 

You're last sentence says it all...this time of year where you have as much cloud cover/precip as we have you're not going to get an above-average month temp wise (at least not b/c of day time max's). The clouds/precip did help keep the min's higher and well the AN crowd can thank that. 

Good Post.

 

But for those that like to Spin and have an agenda, it's all the same to them unfortunately.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They did? 

"November 2018 to October 2019. Winter will be milder than normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation and near-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will occur from late December into mid-January and late January into early February and in mid- to late February."

Wait, the coldest periods of winter will occur in bursts from late-December into mid/late February?  

Holy crap, they must have some helluva algorithm to make that guess!

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