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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

For some reason the interior of my car absorbs heat super well. It can be like 50 out with full sun and the interior will bake. I've wondered if it's b/c there is no tint on the windows. I know leather seats can do this but I don't have leather. 

Broken crank handles on the windows?

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Leaf out proceeded nicely even with the cool temps it seems. Oaks have small leaves, but certain species still running behind. Hardwood maples just buds..probably like the ones PF and Lava refer too. he Norway maples are totally leafed out. Have lots of those around here, so at least it looks like warm season.

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31 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

ahhh thanks!! 

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

All vehicles scorch. Open a window or run the vent for a bit. It’s in the 60s. 

 

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Broken crank handles on the windows?

I like to crank Taylor Swift loudly in the car and if I open the windows the roar of the highway make it harder to hear the music 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ahhh thanks!! 

 

I like to crank Taylor Swift loudly in the car and if I open the windows the roar of the highway make it harder to hear the music 

Also makes it harder to hear if you have a bad wheel bearing or a leak in the exhaust, Do you place a piece of black tape over the check engine light too?  :lol:

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29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Also makes it harder to hear if you have a bad wheel bearing or a leak in the exhaust, Do you place a piece of black tape over the check engine light too?  :lol:

I don't have it cranked the entire time. I drive around for about 10 minutes without music to hear for anything...although I know next to nothing about cars but I keep up with maintenance and all. got my car at 38,00 miles and just about at 101,000 miles and the only "significant" issue I've had is when a tire pressure sensor went. And just recently my right speed senor just went as well. I've never had check engine light come on. Got new brakes and tires last summer too. 

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16 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Definitely  would take a drive for that :)

I'd recommend the MWN road, if it's open, or perhaps Whiteface.  Might get catpaws down to 2,000' but for accumulation probably need twice that (or more.)

Mid-upper 20s this morning, though less frost that yesterday due to the dry air.  Last freeze?  (Latest 28 or lower averages 5/15; 32 or lower: 5/24.)

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55 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... my wife will be at Nature's Classroom with her students for the week.  Looks awful for them

As one of my forestry professors used to say, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, just improper clothing."
 

I like to crank Taylor Swift loudly in the car and if I open the windows the roar of the highway make it harder to hear the music 

Turn the heater all the way cold, fan on defrost.  That setting runs (slightly) the AC compressor in most cars, should be sufficient for the current wx.  We rarely use the car's AC except on the hottest days or for a couple minutes to cool a hot interior.

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39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some of the models probably get some flakes down to the sfc here too. The GFS sits the deformation band over me. We'd probably flirt with a 34F snow/catpaws with -2C 850s and that lift.

If you think that then perhaps I can score a coating especially if it is during the night.  

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Some of the models probably get some flakes down to the sfc here too. The GFS sits the deformation band over me. We'd probably flirt with a 34F snow/catpaws with -2C 850s and that lift.

If going by standard base reflectivity alone ... rad presentation would like like down right snow -

I don't find any of this all that surprising... 

It's part of the climate shift ( not conflating with the Global version of that ...) that I've noted that seemed to switch in to gear around the year 2000 ... Namely, book-end unusual cool/snaps with precip loading..  

Prior to the year 2000 ... I can recall only once or twice, experiences in my own life ( so granted ...anecdotal) ...where Octobers incurred measurable snow - living both substantial year-spans between the Great Lakes and then New England.  Since 2000... 7 Octobers have measured, just shy of half of all ...  Be it a hefty grapple shower that flipped to bouncing packing pellets, or ... an actual synoptic event that leveled > 1" of silvery slush on car tops and grass or more ... snow in October has become frequent enough to almost force expectation. 

It's not quite the same comparison for May; years ago..  though rare, May's have measured in every decade I've been alive, regardless of Lakes of 'England... But the impetus there is rare.  There has been an uptick in frequency since 2000 that is certainly noted .. ..  

I'm not sure why this is happening, but the frequency spanning now two decades is become perhaps a little less seemingly like just noise...  

I will say that this particular year's weather pattern seems to best be characterized as a screaming gradient/velocity ripper winter ( just like the previous 4 or 5 of them have, back -to-back..), that relaxed all at once in the first or second week of April, and when it did... it just sort of stranded the hemisphere into a stagnated blocking tendency between the 45th and 70th parallels...  I think this did so last year too ( frankly ) but perhaps 30 or so days on average sooner, and we were able to cash in on some exciting winter storms in March...  I also wonder if in a lot of the Mays since 2000 ... if this late blocking thing has been prevalent ...  interesting. 

And I recall about 50/50 split ...years that I saw snow on the ground in May... 96-100 F occurred in July - in case anyone is using this to get them closer to winter and denial substantiation. Ha

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If going by standard base reflectivity alone ... rad presentation would like like down right snow -

I don't find any of this all that surprising... 

It's part of the climate shift ( not conflating with the Global version of that ...) that I've noted that seemed to switch in to gear around the year 2000 ... Namely, book-end unusual cool/snaps with precip loading..  

Prior to the year 2000 ... I can recall only once or twice, experiences in my own life ( so granted ...anecdotal) ...where Octobers incurred measurable snow - living both substantial year-spans between the Great Lakes and then New England.  Since 2000... 7 Octobers have measured, just shy of half of all ...  Be it a hefty grapple shower that flipped to bouncing packing pellets, or ... an actual synoptic event that leveled > 1" of silvery slush on car tops and grass or more ... snow in October has become frequent enough to almost force expectation. 

It's not quite the same comparison for May; years ago..  though rare, May's have measured in every decade I've been alive, regardless of Lakes of 'England... But the impetus there is rare.  There has been an uptick in frequency since 2000 that is certainly noted .. ..  

I'm not sure why this is happening, but the frequency spanning now two decades is become perhaps a little less seemingly like just noise...  

I will say that this particular year's weather pattern seems to best be characterized as a screaming gradient/velocity ripper winter ( just like the previous 4 or 5 of them have, back -to-back..), that relaxed all at once in the first or second week of April, and when it did... it just sort of stranded the hemisphere into a stagnated blocking tendency between the 45th and 70th parallels...  I think this did so last year too ( frankly ) but perhaps 30 or so days on average sooner, and we were able to cash in on some exciting winter storms in March...  I also wonder if in a lot of the Mays since 2000 ... if this late blocking thing has been prevalent ...  interesting. 

And I recall about 50/50 split ...years that I saw snow on the ground in May... 96-100 F occurred in July - in case anyone is using this to get them closer to winter and denial substantiation. Ha

Quite an interesting observation and also an intriguing question. Perhaps there is some sort of decadal variability going on, but why are things happening the way they are...in that it almost seems to happen at about the same time of year and where is the "seed to the beginning"? Perhaps the culprit is within the transition zone between the stratosphere and troposphere. Downward propagating eddy's within the lower stratosphere are perhaps becoming more chaotic...and when the atmosphere should be "relaxing" and this is resulting in a "bubble" up of anomalies at the higher latitudes. 

I think I may have briefly touched upon this in a "thinking out loud" post yesterday but maybe there is some sort of disruption going on within the Hadley cell circulation and momentum transport/flux is being disrupted between the Poles and equator?

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Quite an interesting observation and also an intriguing question. Perhaps there is some sort of decadal variability going on, but why are things happening the way they are...in that it almost seems to happen at about the same time of year and where is the "seed to the beginning"? Perhaps the culprit is within the transition zone between the stratosphere and troposphere. Downward propagating eddy's within the lower stratosphere are perhaps becoming more chaotic...and when the atmosphere should be "relaxing" and this is resulting in a "bubble" up of anomalies at the higher latitudes. 

I think I may have briefly touched upon this in a "thinking out loud" post yesterday but maybe there is some sort of disruption going on within the Hadley cell circulation and momentum transport/flux is being disrupted between the Poles and equator?

Heh ... all good questions - 

I did say 'not to conflate with GW...'  ...but in all honesty, I'm not sure there isn't some causal link there ... It seems intuitive there could be, with budgeting heat source and sink across the planet during transition seasons; if so... intuitively it could perhaps be chicken and egg thing when it comes to momentum - 

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omg... ha... ya just gotta throw hands and laugh at some point. 

Those teleconnectors ... may as well snow in every month this year - with zero volcanic precursors ... I'm sure NCEP state-of-the-climate will indicate the 2nd , 3rd... 5th warmest whatever-months while it's happening too... 

 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

As one of my forestry professors used to say, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, just improper clothing."
 

I like to crank Taylor Swift loudly in the car and if I open the windows the roar of the highway make it harder to hear the music 

Turn the heater all the way cold, fan on defrost.  That setting runs (slightly) the AC compressor in most cars, should be sufficient for the current wx.  We rarely use the car's AC except on the hottest days or for a couple minutes to cool a hot interior.

I've always wondered is the AC on when defrost button pushed, but not actually turning on the A/C button?

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh ... all good questions - 

I did say 'not to conflate with GW...'  ...but in all honesty, I'm not sure there isn't some causal link there ... It seems intuitive there could be, with budgeting heat source and sink across the planet during transition seasons; if so... intuitively it could perhaps be chicken and egg thing when it comes to momentum - 

There almost certainly has to be. In one of my classes (I'm pretty sure it was Oceanography) we briefly touched upon tropical activity and global warming. The last several years we have seen tropical cyclones seem to get to a specific area and completely explode and take off. The thinking is that we are seeing an excess of energy being built up at the tropics and this is enhancing such activity. Now...let's go further with this "excess energy" build up at the tropics...

In order for the global energy budget to be maintained, there has to be some distribution of this energy to the pole and it would have to be some amount to provide balance. what if this energy shift is happening like a rubber band snapping...where the transfer of energy is not balanced and its being "slung" towards the poles. 

idk...really no one answer and just so many moving pieces and things to consider. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

23F at BML this morning...terrible. RIP to the annuals sitting outside at Lowes and HD.

The closest PWS to me a half mile away at same elevation hit 26F...a good 8 hours below freezing...we don't plant for a while still.

Already rebounded to 58F.  

Classic low dew diurnal range in the mountain valleys where it's 30+ degrees warmer by lunch time. 

IMG_3131.PNG.2f1c3d87f0f8ce9f7daa00274e353d59.PNG

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man GFS and euro are light years away for Sunday. I bet euro caves somewhat. GFS probably too far south.

I keep seeing this robust, warm ridge/pattern to the la-la land range of the GFS pop up about ever other run or so  - 

I wonder if that finally makes its way into the mid ... shorter ranges by September 1st ?

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