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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The February thaw continues. 

IMG_3073.PNG.8a7c9d1b70ab083cc18b62f418536b9c.PNG

Still nearly 2.5 feet above normal snowpack as of May 2nd. 

This shit is relentless...if not for the humid/warm stretch in April the mountain probably would still be around 90" depths up high.  

Just now in early May is the snowpack at the picnic tables getting down to what the normal curve maximum is in mid-winter.

IMG_3074.PNG.54ac68e81c1bac9873d209781f3ce017.PNG

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Still nearly 2.5 feet above normal snowpack as of May 2nd. 

This shit is relentless...if not for the humid/warm stretch in April the mountain probably would still be around 90" depths up high.  

Just now in early May is the snowpack at the picnic tables getting down to what the normal curve maximum is in mid-winter.

IMG_3074.PNG.54ac68e81c1bac9873d209781f3ce017.PNG

What is the latest date for 1 inch of snow on the ground?

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Still nearly 2.5 feet above normal snowpack as of May 2nd. 

This shit is relentless...if not for the humid/warm stretch in April the mountain probably would still be around 90" depths up high.  

Just now in early May is the snowpack at the picnic tables getting down to what the normal curve maximum is in mid-winter.

IMG_3074.PNG.54ac68e81c1bac9873d209781f3ce017.PNG

1816 summer up there?

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Anyone notice something odd about this MCD? 

 

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Bands of convection are expected to develop across the MD
   area this afternoon, with an attendant risk of damaging wind gusts
   and marginally severe hail.  A WW issuance may be needed pending
   convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar mosaic imagery indicates a
   continued increase in convection along an axis from near HTS
   south-southwestward to near MRX and north of ATL, with deepening
   cumulus along central Appalachians areas and also in central
   Kentucky.  These trends are supported by insolation/surface warming
   and ascent/cooling aloft associated with a mid-level wave
   approaching the region from the west.  The airmass just east of the
   convective axis has now become moderately unstable (1500-2250 J/kg
   MUCAPE), and although low-level wind fields are modest, strong
   mid-level flow was contributing to 35-45 kt effective shear,
   supportive of updraft organization.

   With time, some upscale growth into linear convective segments is
   expected within portions of the aforementioned convective axis,
   which may support occasional severe wind gusts.  This potential
   appears to be most probable across portions of West Virginia ahead
   of the mid-level wave.  Isolated instances of hail cannot completely
   be ruled out, though modest mid-level lapse rates should mitigate
   the extent of this threat.  Although not currently anticipated, a
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be considered for portions
   of this region - especially if focused corridors of damaging-wind
   potential become apparent.
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52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Anyone notice something odd about this MCD? 

 


   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Bands of convection are expected to develop across the MD
   area this afternoon, with an attendant risk of damaging wind gusts
   and marginally severe hail.  A WW issuance may be needed pending
   convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar mosaic imagery indicates a
   continued increase in convection along an axis from near HTS
   south-southwestward to near MRX and north of ATL, with deepening
   cumulus along central Appalachians areas and also in central
   Kentucky.  These trends are supported by insolation/surface warming
   and ascent/cooling aloft associated with a mid-level wave
   approaching the region from the west.  The airmass just east of the
   convective axis has now become moderately unstable (1500-2250 J/kg
   MUCAPE), and although low-level wind fields are modest, strong
   mid-level flow was contributing to 35-45 kt effective shear,
   supportive of updraft organization.

   With time, some upscale growth into linear convective segments is
   expected within portions of the aforementioned convective axis,
   which may support occasional severe wind gusts.  This potential
   appears to be most probable across portions of West Virginia ahead
   of the mid-level wave.  Isolated instances of hail cannot completely
   be ruled out, though modest mid-level lapse rates should mitigate
   the extent of this threat.  Although not currently anticipated, a
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be considered for portions
   of this region - especially if focused corridors of damaging-wind
   potential become apparent.

Mm hm ... it's too long to read - 

shame on them ...   haha

kidding - from me of all people

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm hm ... it's too long to read - 

shame on them ...   haha

kidding - from me of all people

:lol:

Look at the wording vs. the watch issuance percentage. The wording makes it sounds like they are itching to issue a watch, but the percentage basically makes it seem like there is little chance. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

:lol:

Look at the wording vs. the watch issuance percentage. The wording makes it sounds like they are itching to issue a watch, but the percentage basically makes it seem like there is little chance. 

Dude... that's even worse... not only is it tl;dr ... but now ur askin' us to actually 'read between the lines' ? ... i'd rather jam my head inside a killer bee hive and start callin' the queen the c-word

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude... that's even worse... not only is it tl;dr ... but now ur askin' us to actually 'read between the lines' ? ... i'd rather jam my head inside a killer bee hive and start callin' the queen the c-word

or you could get lucky and have the hive fly onto your head

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Yeah ...we're getting continuity breakdowns in clusters...  Each one seems to last about two ...two and half days ...then the motif of that period obliterates ... Usually some new paradigm of frustration and loathsome weather type takes it's place.   We grouse for two ...two and half days, then that one goes away and new reason for 'false' hope emerges...  rinse, repeat. 

Through it all, as Scott mentioned we're working on two weeks of shits - so, ... trend along and alone suggests which format above would be favored ...  Unfortunately. 

Anyway, that ridge and warm up next week is utterly destroyed in this recent GFS as Weatherwiz noted...  I think it was Brian who mentioned ( name dropping a lot here...) that our delta due to the Labrador finger of death is huge and you can really see why that is true.  We've gone from MOS numbers some 15 over climo to a pattern that wouldn't get us much higher than 44 over this recent 12 to 18 hours worth of dismantling effort by the runs ... just because of that frontal latitude.  

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33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude... that's even worse... not only is it tl;dr ... but now ur askin' us to actually 'read between the lines' ? ... i'd rather jam my head inside a killer bee hive and start callin' the queen the c-word

Now you know how we feel trying to read your essays....lmao

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Euro looks looks like a frustrating shit show to me...  D6 to 10 is infuriatingly cold compared to the 500 mb height tapestry...  which rubs it in.  That's a fairly obviously pronounced ridge blossomed up the eastern seaboard and the closer it gets, the colder the damming drillss S over specifically targeting the topographic slope region E of the Berks and Whites ... for like 4 f'n straight days on this run.  kind of amazing actually

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