Sn0waddict Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 5:42 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Doesn't look too bad on the GFS...60s... Expand Ya it holds the rain back until the evening/nighttime allowing temps to warm up during the day. Sadly most other models disagree with that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 5:47 PM, Sn0waddict said: Ya it holds the rain back until the evening/nighttime allowing temps to warm up during the day. Sadly most other models disagree with that though. Expand Well, the Euro does bring 60s into CT from what I can see on the free stuff...but pretty wet... Oh well, at least the weekend looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 If we can get a strong enough trigger Wednesday is incredibly intriguing with severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 4:37 PM, weatherwiz said: I wonder if this is like a top 10 or 5 season for many of those areas. I've never really paid attention to snow in these areas but from what I've read about like Donner Pass (at the Summit) they've only had a handful of times passing 700''. I think the month of February alone produce like 200-300'' in spots lol Expand Mammoth summit at 715 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 6:27 PM, Ginx snewx said: Mammoth summit at 715 Expand Didn't they get like 90'' in 3 or 4 days in February or March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 6:02 PM, weatherwiz said: If we can get a strong enough trigger Wednesday is incredibly intriguing with severe potential. Expand Jammed in the ass crack by a bd wedgy ? ... good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 'Course ...then there's a 'nother school of thinking ... Someone is way overzealous with trough depth over southern/SE Canada ... not like we haven't seen such a gross display by that particular guidance, over that particular geographic region of the planet before so ... heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 Wednesday could be a decent svr day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 7:37 PM, Dr. Dews said: Wednesday could be a decent svr day. Expand Could ... being the operative word. Still another way... things have to break just right for that... cuz that's precariously close to BD ending anything fun to look out until year from next August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 7:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Could ... being the operative word. Still another way... things have to break just right for that... cuz that's precariously close to BD ending anything fun to look out until year from next August Expand The gfs look pretty dangerous and there is at least some multi-model support. Climo peak doesn't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 8:21 PM, Dr. Dews said: The gfs look pretty dangerous and there is at least some multi-model support. Climo peak doesn't hurt either. Expand Climo Peak of what? Solar angle? Instability? Hopefully something can pop and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 8:36 PM, powderfreak said: Climo Peak of what? Solar angle? Instability? Hopefully something can pop and boom. Expand Climo peak for high-end severe, esp including tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 8:40 PM, Dr. Dews said: Climo peak for high-end severe, esp including tornadoes. Expand Ahh never really thought about it. I would've guessed that would be later more in line with higher climo temps/dews for fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 8:41 PM, powderfreak said: Ahh never really thought about it. I would've guessed that would be later more in line with higher climo temps/dews for fuel. Expand Yeah, I am just going off memory. Mostly SW of us but May 25-June 5th is a hotbed of high-end stuff. 1985, 1995, 1998? come to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 8:49 PM, Dr. Dews said: Yeah, I am just going off memory. Mostly SW of us but May 25-June 5th is a hotbed of high-end stuff. 1985, 1995, 1998? come to mind Expand I'd agree with that. Maybe the first week or two of July as a secondary peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 24, 2019 Author Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 9:12 PM, Hoth said: I'd agree with that. Maybe the first week or two of July as a secondary peak. Expand Yeah, there's potential well into September and a peak near hurricane season climax. Generally for tornadoes (at least SNE) we look to the next three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 Essentially ... 0 chance of convection on the 18z GFS for next Wednesday - ... thankfully for that agenda, it's still 5 days away. For one, the models seem to be spinning up a baroclinic wave over the eastern Lakes and diving it ESE through New England overnight into Wednesday morning... It's spurious in nature how/why the do this... and could very well be way over done. I don't doubt there'll be a warm frontal arm extending east through southern Ontario/NYS and central NE with or without a wave rippling along it... The models just can't resist kinking that feature ..utilizing shrapnel vorticity pieces to do it. Anyway, if that's over done, than that backside lobe of Gulf of Maine sludge never backs down to NYC and that's a massive day 5 bust. Yeah...all possible from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 25, 2019 Author Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 11:05 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Essentially ... 0 chance of convection on the 18z GFS for next Wednesday - ... thankfully for that agenda, it's still 5 days away. For one, the models seem to be spinning up a baroclinic wave over the eastern Lakes and diving it ESE through New England overnight into Wednesday morning... It's spurious in nature how/why the do this... and could very well be way over done. I don't doubt there'll be a warm frontal arm extending east through southern Ontario/NYS and central NE with or without a wave rippling along it... The models just can't resist kinking that feature ..utilizing shrapnel vorticity pieces to do it. Anyway, if that's over done, than that backside lobe of Gulf of Maine sludge never backs down to NYC and that's a massive day 5 bust. Yeah...all possible from this range. Expand Looks primed on the 18z gfs. The multi-day/faceted events that are well-modeled, I'll roll with it. Timing differences aside. I am speaking for WNE, generally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Could be some nocturnal activity along that warm push in the wee hours of Sunday morning ... and someone Sunday afternoon may end up under an intense DBZ core with tall cloud integral. Wednesday? Nothing and that's western NE too. That's the way it looks now. Should the modeling change ... okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/24/2019 at 8:40 PM, Dr. Dews said: Climo peak for high-end severe, esp including tornadoes. Expand SNE severe is about as daunting as SNE drought. Today we COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 October through April = no tornadoes May through September = max1-2 tornadoes per New England state, many years zero. Woah, I had no idea we were in deep tornado season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 11:49 AM, ApacheTrout said: October through April = no tornadoes May through September = max1-2 tornadoes per New England state, many years zero. Woah, I had no idea we were in deep tornado season. Expand Ya...a lot of nonsense going around here of late. All the talk of the summer weather we have been Having since late March, and now we’re deep into/peak of severe season lol...????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 12:29 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya...a lot of nonsense going around here of late. All the talk of the summer weather we have been Having since late March, and now we’re deep into/peak of severe season lol...????? Expand Must mean fall starts after July 4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Must mean fall starts after July 4th? Expand Good point...Im sure we’ll be hearing about that come July 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Must mean fall starts after July 4th? Expand Lol, my aunt and uncle had a house up in the Lakes Region in the 70's and 80's and I remember they and their neighbors used to joke about that. "after Fourth of July the summer is practically over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 12:42 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lol, my aunt and uncle had a house up in the Lakes Region in the 70's and 80's and I remember they and their neighbors used to joke about that. "after Fourth of July the summer is practically over" Expand Ya I mean days starting to get a lot shorter so ya they're right. Summer is from memorial day to July 4, after that it's downward spiral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 25, 2019 Author Share Posted May 25, 2019 Lol @ acatt crew clinging onto each other like a sweat rag on the nape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 No signs of sustained torches on guidance. Spring lives on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 12:42 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lol, my aunt and uncle had a house up in the Lakes Region in the 70's and 80's and I remember they and their neighbors used to joke about that. "after Fourth of July the summer is practically over" Expand Yup..a lot of the old timers loved to say that. My grandfather used to joke around with that too. On 5/25/2019 at 1:05 PM, Whineminster said: Ya I mean days starting to get a lot shorter so ya they're right. Summer is from memorial day to July 4, after that it's downward spiral Expand On the 4th of July...the days haven’t lost much time at all at that point!! But a couple weeks past that, that’s when you can start to notice the lost time in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 On 5/25/2019 at 1:17 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No signs of sustained torches on guidance. Spring lives on. Expand Yup!! DIT AND Eric Fisher gonna go down in flames with the 90’s torch for mid next week it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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