LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Angus said: A little warmth so I can start swimming at the local pond - Walden - would be appreciated. We put dock in this weekend in NH...will be painful. Water temp currently 50. Yeah that’s not doable without a wetsuit. The good news is a few sunny warm days with limited wind to prevent mixing and the surface water will be warm enough to swim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 What bear is he poking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 In a typical Tropical Tidbits GFS map showing 6-hour precipitation rate, is the rate for the six hours AHEAD of the valid time, or for the 6 hours BEFORE the valid time? E.g., if the map is valid at 12z, is the forecast for 12z-18z, or 6z-12z? (I help to advise on indoor vs. outdoor graduation ceremonies at the college I work at, Bates, and our graduation is Sunday 10am. Looks like showers exiting by 8am or so.) Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Lol, Summer warmth. Totally glossing over the current nice stretch of weather. Meh ... You didn't ask me for this opinion buuut, nah - Folks certainly appreciate today's weather just fine. I mean ...are we really expecting five pages about 74 F blue bird quiescence ? But it goes similar to News media necessity? If it's not dire, it's not on fire, and you only yell fire in a crowded theater In other words, what's copasetic isn't news-worth because news is intended to inform of circumstances doing harm, regardless of what form. Today's weather isn't one of those times ... It's concomitant with the nature of all things great and small... not threat = no warning = nothing to talk about ... But it doesn't mean people don't like the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What bear is he poking? I know ... seems like collectively at a minimum we employed the trope, 'watch us end up above normal' at one time or the other, and probably meant it more than sarcasm at the time too - I think he means his Twitter audience - ...which probably doesn't include that many regulars/return users here. don't know - But I know I mentioned myself that nightly lows were not appreciably cold ...and that diurnal chill was mainly during the day ... giving us a faux impression of how bad it was ( perhaps ).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 It's also possible the models are in flux - changing toward warmer solutions ... I've noticed this in the past with GFSX MOS numbers....when they are substantively warmer (colder) looking than the pattern, ... sometimes the pattern sort of evolves toward ... It's like history proved that in some scenarios the warmer(cooler) variations were favored. Here is Newark NJ for sunday through next Wed: 63 87| 68 86| 66 87| 71 91| Those high temperatures are a clear 9 to 15 above climatology and we're talking days 4 through 7, a range that is increasingly weighted/mitigating extremes. So warmer going that far above climo looks like over kill - unless the pattern adjusts more dominating with the ridge perhaps ...etc... and does the evolving thing. Granted KEWR is not in SNE.... but our regional numbers but if the warm bulges more... it won't make much difference either. Edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, 1985 Polar Bear said: In a typical Tropical Tidbits GFS map showing 6-hour precipitation rate, is the rate for the six hours AHEAD of the valid time, or for the 6 hours BEFORE the valid time? E.g., if the map is valid at 12z, is the forecast for 12z-18z, or 6z-12z? (I help to advise on indoor vs. outdoor graduation ceremonies at the college I work at, Bates, and our graduation is Sunday 10am. Looks like showers exiting by 8am or so.) Thanks. 6-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Meh ... You didn't ask me for this opinion buuut, nah - Folks certainly appreciate today's weather just fine. I mean ...are we really expecting five pages about 74 F blue bird quiescence ? But it goes similar to News media necessity? If it's not dire, it's not on fire, and you only yell fire in a crowded theater In other words, what's copasetic isn't news-worth because news is intended to inform of circumstances doing harm, regardless of what form. Today's weather isn't one of those times ... It's concomitant with the nature of all things great and small... not threat = no warning = nothing to talk about ... But it doesn't mean people don't like the day. It was a fairly nice month. Just not overly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It was a fairly nice month. Just not overly sunny Sounds like an oxymoron for Spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Meh ... You didn't ask me for this opinion buuut, nah - Folks certainly appreciate today's weather just fine. I mean ...are we really expecting five pages about 74 F blue bird quiescence ? Hold on...but when it was cold with a snow threat a week or 10 days ago, weren't you arguing that we should all be having more discussion about weather "normal" people want? <duck and run> Today was 5-stars all the way. 60-70F with low dews. Brochure weather for the Chamber of Commerce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 PDS in OK! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 5 hours ago, Hoth said: Amen to that, brother. We June 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We June Remember when it had that in Napril and Mayorch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: PDS in OK! Are those given for what they think are F3 or higher tors? Is population factored in? Like does a bunch of farmland counties with an aggregate population of 67 people get PDS or is it saved for cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when it had that in Napril and Mayorch? Which IPA did you eat for dinner? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Which IPA did you eat for dinner? In fact I’m fairly certain you posted the EPS for both months and it showed BN. Def Napril you posted. Mayorch not sure . Point being .. BN very unlikely in this regime of SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: In fact I’m fairly certain you posted the EPS for both months and it showed BN. Def Napril you posted. Mayorch not sure . Point being .. BN very unlikely in this regime of SE ridge Shitty month of Napril wet cloudy, May sucked , one warm day, beautiful last 2 days . We COC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Shitty month of Napril wet cloudy, May sucked , one warm day, beautiful last 2 days . We COC Everyday here out is AN and we all finish AN again. SE ridge not to be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyday here out is AN and we all finish AN again. SE ridge not to be denied Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Charts! I do think it's AN from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Charts! I do think it's AN from here on out. I’ve never seen someone so enamored with charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve never seen someone so enamored with charts It does back statements up with facts though. At least someone in the argument can show that they actually looked at something. Without a strong reasoning to go BN though, in today's climate if you don't have a strong cold signal the Las Vegas money is on AN. I think the minimum temps will get it done, plus a couple hot days middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It does back statements up with facts though. At least someone in the argument can show that they actually looked at something. Without a strong reasoning to go BN though, in today's climate if you don't have a strong cold signal the Las Vegas money is on AN. I think the minimum temps will get it done, plus a couple hot days middle of next week. That’s what i mean though. Those charts almost always are BN in every season. It’s rare they are AN. They almost always bust low. So I just don’t know how usable they are if ACATT biased? They kept showing cold cold in winter. We know how that worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Charts! I do think it's AN from here on out. Tomorrow and Saturday , OK. Shall we go 10 above the charts like you suggested we do this past weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s what i mean though. Those charts almost always are BN in every season. It’s rare they are AN. They almost always bust low. So I just don’t know how usable they are if ACATT biased? They kept showing cold cold in winter. We know how that worked out Fake news sells in your world. Say it enough and it will be true I guess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It does back statements up with facts though. At least someone in the argument can show that they actually looked at something. Without a strong reasoning to go BN though, in today's climate if you don't have a strong cold signal the Las Vegas money is on AN. I think the minimum temps will get it done, plus a couple hot days middle of next week. Just run with AN every day every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just run with AN every day every month. Until Nov, then we do an about face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just run with AN every day every month. I mean without a strong signal either way, we do seem prone to AN compared to BN in the means. I don't really have an opinion on it, it just is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I mean without a strong signal either way, we do seem prone to AN compared to BN in the means. I don't really have an opinion on it, it just is what it is. It’s the way to go for sure but with higher mins, can provide a false sense of ‘warmth’. April was AN yet no one agrees it was a warm nor springlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s the way to go for sure but with higher mins, can provide a false sense of ‘warmth’. April was AN yet no one agrees it was a warm nor springlike. Yeah definitely agree there. But in the means you go AN more often than BN and you'll win the bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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