CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Heavy heavy sun coming up for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoth said: Paging Wiz! Day 3 mod risk for the Plains Monday. Been a while since we've seen that. 45 percent hatched already. That could easily be a high risk day!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoth said: Paging Wiz! Day 3 mod risk for the Plains Monday. Been a while since we've seen that. 46 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 45 percent hatched already. That could easily be a high risk day!! Also a Day 3 Marginal risk for New England.....surprised we don't have a thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Heavy heavy sun coming up for a few days. mm... really - The NAM is polluting the warm sector ceilings in its usual proclivity to do so... I don't know what it is about this guidance ...other than the fact that its a piece of shit for whatever reason. But one of its typical charms is that it loves to crowd warm air strata into warm sectors. That then goes on to feed-back negatively in tamping down surface heating...which goes onto ruin SBC for convection ...and on and so on. Domino dipshit model.. All because its kleenex and lube tendency to get excited about jamming warm sectors with clouds. But it's not all warm sectors... If we get an expansive ridge that grabs some of the SW heat ejecta ..goes up and over top and descends on a NW trajectory/big heat DVM day it's high sun and nil clouds all the way. It seems to be particularly endemic with Lakes cutters that tote warm air, albeit rarely, through central New England underside warm fronts. ...For whatever reason, it over saturates the top of the BL and can't clear that region out. That's the bias? I don't know if that is exactly what it is doing now...but, it's MOS for tomorrow is like 69 at interior lower elevations ...when the synoptics of the Euro would support 82 or something. The GFS also has upper 70s for tomorrow ... I have to wonder given that NAM's bias if it's full of shit here. Otherwise, that would not be heavy sun tomorrow if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 actually... the 12z version is a little different... Instead of >70% RH in the R2 level .... 700 mb, it's 55% ...That's usually good for partial sun provided the upper and lower levels cooperate. Synoptics and bias notwithstanding, they should... It also has what appears to be IB convection in the midday time frames, an assessment made because post the QPF nearing 2pm ...LI regionally plummets. That would be cool I bet those are elevated crispies that are not entirely invisible by lower clouds for fun viewing. I love that It's also finally 23 C in the T1 level so it's coming around to a warmer Monday in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Also a Day 3 Marginal risk for New England.....surprised we don't have a thread yet. Right ... I mentioned that to Wiz' yesterday... where is he - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 We are treading the line up here... the models had been showing the northern mountains locked in stratus with much cooler temperatures but right now we've got some sunshine in the valley while the peaks are locked in dark clouds. Funny to see because a couple days ago the EURO cloud products were showing exactly this evolution, just low stratus locked in on NW flow in the usual NW-flow upslope zones. It's trying its hardest to erode, with the fingers of valleys clearing out some while the clouds cling to the mountain ridges. Looks beautiful down south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks beautiful down south though. Can confirm Condition COC down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Also a Day 3 Marginal risk for New England.....surprised we don't have a thread yet. Damaging "See Text" day incoming. Expect Reed Timmer to set up shop in KTOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 The 00z Euro's 850 mb thermal layout looks like it approaches upper tier for pre June climo... particularly, south of ~ Indianapolis to New Jersey latitudes. For us...we get brushed by mid 80s supporting thermal plumb over next weekend, but the usual ...clouds and uncertainty notwithstanding. As for that axis and points south... wow. D5 clear to 10 with 18 C pervasive, with pockets exceeding 21 C ... D10 would support 104 in Atlanta GA and the 'Linas... It's not ridiculous to wonder if that's overdone because the Euro - as we all know - has a subtle of noticeable nonetheless tendency to over dig troughs W of 100 over N/A's middle latitudes...and that would tend to send up heights slightly higher as a coupled response immediately downstream over Missouri and the Tenn. Valley, M/A and SE regions... The GFS is more supported by seasonal/recent NAO trends, but that is a dubious support. The NAO giveth ...and taketh. It can be negative and wobble over to the eastern limb, and then we bake... and meanwhile, it looks like -2SD. Or, it could re-emerge over the western limb out of nowhere, and we go back to late March in late May, right on top of when the models were trying to construct eastern heat domes. It's not a very well managed mass-field, and thus it's forcing on given regions is difficult to assess. The extent of polarward heat still looks pretty heavily determined by the NAO nuances ... This was the case in yesterday's general guidance blend, too. The PAC relay into N/A is pretty stable in the guidance and probably is destined to a neggie look... So if the NAO does vary east, the Euro may be more onto something...if the GFS gets the westerly biased prize, the Euro is too warm and we probably end up much more temperate. Either way, yeah...I don't think the late mid range is destined ( necessarily ) to plummet back to where we've been with these cool anomalies... I don't get the gut feeling... The season ending -NAOs that have been common place in the last 5 years have typically begun decaying by latter Mays as a subtle trend to also consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 18, 2019 Author Share Posted May 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Damaging "See Text" day incoming. Expect Reed Timmer to set up shop in KTOL. I think we'll slight risk our way to an active and damaging day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I think we'll slight risk our way to an active and damaging day I wouldn't object to a little excitement. Your avatar cracks me up btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Damn it’s amazing out. Black flies galore though. Their days are numbered Tomorrow looks less than stellar though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 53 minutes ago, Hoth said: Damaging "See Text" day incoming. Expect Reed Timmer to set up shop in KTOL. He intercepted on foot yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He intercepted on foot yesterday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 I don't know what's going on around your streets right now but this is just about flawless here. About as close to theoretical flawlessness as possible. 73/43, unabated pure deep blue sky and calm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 I know Ryan and Chris were looking too, but Monday is looking nice in NNE and even western MA and CT for storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 GGEM has a hot look 500 mb next weekend with 582 dm ridge rim expanded N of Boston ... yet times/perturbs the lower troposphere with any reason it can imagine to offset. Seems there's an attempt across all guidance to give our region a taste but as is...the ridge is just too far S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 81 muthufukkas (next Saturday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Absolute COC day. Awesome. Meanwhile Mammoth.... sign is 18.5 feet high 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Let's bury the Mammoth sign. Winter Storm Warning with 24" plus expected. Rain is just moving into California now. I just checked the Mammoth summit cam. Beautiful day with people all around that sign top. Has it ever been totally buried? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't know what's going on around your streets right now but this is just about flawless here. About as close to theoretical flawlessness as possible. 73/43, unabated pure deep blue sky and calm Well, it looked like the outdoor roof deck at Northampton brewery easily had an hour wait. Cloudless blue sky right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Since I went to Florida for heat and storms it only makes sense I’ll end up missing the action at home and get zilch here LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Quote CEF 4PM; 76/33. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Seasonal transition... upper elevations still lagging behind quite a bit. Snow levels are retreating up the mountains but hanging tight above 3,000ft. It does take a while to melt what was a 10-foot snowpack in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Have a day! Black flies have faded away - what an evening to kick back outside and do some grilling. 68/41 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Yukon Cornelius said: Have a day! Black flies have faded away - what an evening to kick back outside and do some grilling. 68/41 Just finished the kebobs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 18, 2019 Author Share Posted May 18, 2019 61.4 with a cool breeze. Chicken and sausage on the grill w/ Great North tie dyed APA's chucked around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 18, 2019 Author Share Posted May 18, 2019 Hi of a torchy 73.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 18, 2019 Share Posted May 18, 2019 Anyone watch the ABC Evening News? Large, damaging tornadoes. 70 million at risk. On and on. So much hype. Wonder what they will do with a moderate or high risk? We have been lucky lately without a huge outbreak or a large tornado going through a major metro. I can't even fathom a F4 or F5 going through Dallas or Chicago or any Metro with a million people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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