Torch Tiger Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Whineminster said: Now is the time of the season where we begin to learn who the true ACATT weenies are..... Roughly a month ago when the seasons changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 Sweep 'em Monday ... Warm sector airmass fully entrenched across the region with dew pts in the 60s and 925 mb temps of +20C to +22C per GFS and EC. This will support highs well into the 80s, thus will go warmer than guidance given this warm airmass and strong SW flow. This warm sector airmass will be accompanied by CAPES of around 1000 j/kg. Thus will have to watch short wave moving thru the eastern Great Lakes and its attending cold front sweeping across southern New England late Mon/Mon evening. Fairly strong wind field aloft combined with modest instability and surface convergence may trigger a few strong storms. Too far out in time to say much more but definitely will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 4 more weeks and the sunrises start to get later. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Getting some breaks now. Hopefully this is the end of the shat weather until Novie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Getting some breaks now. Hopefully this is the end of the shat weather until Novie. 40's May 60's December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: 4 more weeks and the sunrises start to get later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Winds from E at the sfc to like SSW at 850 and SW at 700 Look at that Supercell composite parameter...HOLY CRAP. Lapse rate almost 8.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Welp, still mid 50s with showers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I mean you have to appreciate that sounding. Look at some north of the boundary though...3000-4000+ MUCAPE lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Here’s a kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Here’s a kuchera and? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Winds from E at the sfc to like SSW at 850 and SW at 700 Look at that Supercell composite parameter...HOLY CRAP. Lapse rate almost 8.5 This looks like a bunch of gibberish and kids scribbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This looks like a bunch of gibberish and kids scribbles. what it looks like is monster hail somewhere today. I still say we will see a 4.25'' today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: Here’s a kuchera Kuchie ku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 4 more weeks and the sunrises start to get later. Ha I mentioned that to Dr Dew the other day, crazy depressing to think the days get shorter and darker in only a month. Its light enough to walk or hike until like 9pm right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: and? As was discussed yesterday, you should stop looking at these as it's hitting your pleasure circut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: As was discussed yesterday, you should stop looking at these as it's hitting your pleasure circut. I actually do look at them pretty frequently...except the Kuchera one though...that one is brutal. I don't really look at it though for the projected amounts...I just use it to gauge where the heaviest snow may fall (I think that sort of works well...and maybe that's what the overall intent is)...but using it to forecast snowfall amounts...I think that's when it become more garbage than helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: As was discussed yesterday, you should stop looking at these as it's hitting your pleasure circut. Oxytocin spiking his 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 This spring has been uniquely screwing the New England region... We haven't had really very many ( if at all ...) proper back door fronts set up and swath thru ... we've just been defaulted inside the dammed ( and 'damned') cool murk air masses from the get-go.. Today is a bust here in SNE... Not sure if y'allz covered it ... but it wasn't supposed to be this wet/cool with back-building ceilings in the general assemble voice from yesterday ... whether machine or man. The NAM FRH grid suggest some sun from 8am through 2pm and that has failed horribly... and the MOS was over 68 S of CON, NH by now ... failed.. Now, sat does suggest thinning sweeps in from WNW as I type and with high sun/long days we might get a small boost in a bit... but by and large, this is trampling on the backs of the bruised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think the grid spacing is causing Logan to "appear" over water. I've seen that before. They’re just plotting BOS where they measure the snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 It's almost as though the hemispheric circulation regime over our side has wended its way into a circumstance where the NAO domain gets to dictate the daily variability .. pretty much entirely. The problem therein is, ... the models notoriously can't handle that particular domain very accurately.. and this last five days is/has proven no different. Every other run cycle seems to reposition the -NAOness west or east of neutral ... and that matters, hugely. The PNA wants to balloon heights over eastern N/A mid and lower latitudes... and this is reflected very well in the operational GFS/Euro/GGEM..etc.. But, when they start tending the -NAO toward the western limb... the N-jet ablates the ridge arc and shunts any warm up south of NE... Now is one of those times... A couple days ago, the eastern limb was favored, and heights were concomitantly edged far enough N to at least kiss our region with substantive warmth/convection... The non-scientific paranoid approach: the way this spring has come to pass thus far ... unrelenting always disappointing at least excuse imaginable... that makes it very hard to believe that the region is destined to see any of this ridge/warm up beyond lies in the models at any time before June 1... But again ...there's supposed to be a reality where other probabilities are in that debate. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: They’re just plotting BOS where they measure the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 Everything is great, temperature has spiked to 57. It's muggy and very cold but the warmth is not far away. Long range looks "meh" for true searing heat, though I haven't seen the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Interesting .. the Euro operational suggested this last night ... this run it's buying in hard - Sunday's a rare look. That eastern arm of that warm boundary does not typically lift through New England that way when you have a tandem Lakes cutter... The eastern end of the warm front almost always turns coat and floods back SW toward NYC ... But that 12z chart is only going one way, and that is substantially above the American cluster's ideas on that particular day. It's got +13C to Essex Co and going up during the day, under which there is a deep SW flow and lots of sun suggested... I mean, NAM MOS is like 72 at FIT... This Euro run looks like it would have to bust that by a clean 15 - Am I seeing things here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Getting warm and muggy here as we break into mostly sunny conditions. Black flies galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Getting warm and muggy here as we break into mostly sunny conditions. Black flies galore. i wonder if we're getting cold air seclusion down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Temperature forecast phailure here today, was supposed to be 72, currently only 59F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: Getting warm and muggy here as we break into mostly sunny conditions. Black flies galore. Out of mud season into the bugs, Looks like the hummingbirds have arrived, Spotted one today at the feeder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Temperature forecast phailure here today, was supposed to be 72, currently only 59F. 65/55 and sun...glad we live here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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