May 2019 Discussion

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

90°? lol 

maybe he meant SW TX?

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

90°? lol 

00z GFSX MOS was 82 for FIT on Monday...  It's not '90' per se, but with climate weight at D5 that could be shaving a few clicks off the actual potential... I haven't looked closely at the synoptics and it's just the one day though.  

That's about as far as I'll defend that; lord have mercy should Kevin ever get to formally spear head the interpretation penetration for the public opinion -

[weatherwiz]

Now this is wild...for SE SD tomorrow evening. Talk about elevated CAPE lol

[dendrite]

That's about as long and skinny as it gets. I like chode CAPE.

[#NoPoles]

Had 2 days in a row of mid to upper 60s for highs. Now are temps will be rising every day as the ridge builds in. The local weather peeps are predicting we hit 90 about a week earlier than averge...GOT was all worried about Winter is Coming....and Im over here like, F that, Summer Is Coming...and im going to die

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's about as long and skinny as it gets. I like chode CAPE.

How's this one for you?

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

00z GFSX MOS was 82 for FIT on Monday...  It's not '90' per se, but with climate weight at D5 that could be shaving a few clicks off the actual potential... I haven't looked closely at the synoptics and it's just the one day though.  

That's about as far as I'll defend that; lord have mercy should Kevin ever get to formally spear head the interpretation penetration for the public opinion -

I looked at the gfs and it looked a bit messy to be pulling off 90F with 15C with SW flow down there. I like seeing a deeper WNW flow and drier soils to pull off 90F with 15C 850s. The euro looks a bit cleaner with the s/w ridge. I'd still probably call it low/mid 80s...maybe the BDL tarmac squeaks out an 85/86?

But I agree that the overall point is that it's leaning warm and summerlike again beginning this weekend. Maybe that's what we needed to break the crap patterns back...a couple runs of the heat failing and then as we approach go-time the ridge says "nuh uh" and just plows the whole column of warmth through the region.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How's this one for you?

Do you just go around clicking multiple gridpoints all days? lol

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you just go around clicking multiple gridpoints all days? lol

If it's within a region favorable for severe wx...yes

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I looked at the gfs and it looked a bit messy to be pulling off 90F with 15C with SW flow down there. I like seeing a deeper WNW flow and drier soils to pull off 90F with 15C 850s. The euro looks a bit cleaner with the s/w ridge. I'd still probably call it low/mid 80s...maybe the BDL tarmac squeaks out an 85/86?

But I agree that the overall point is that it's leaning warm and summerlike again beginning this weekend. Maybe that's what we needed to break the crap patterns back...a couple runs of the heat failing and then as we approach go-time the ridge says "nuh uh" and just plows the whole column of warmth through the region.

And I'd even be thrilled with less haha... Anything but east wind, period.  holy smokes. 

yeah 90 under 15C 850s needs a pretty stretched adiabat and that's not likely if it's goop warm under ceilings..

 

[dryslot]

I see SV has the upgraded ECMWF running in parallel for the 0z/12z cycles before the 06/11 implementation.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I see SV has the upgraded ECMWF running in parallel for the 0z/12z cycles before the 06/11 implementation.

do you like SV? I've been subscribing to Ryan Maue's page but I'm not quite impressed really. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

do you like SV? I've been subscribing to Ryan Maue's page but I'm not quite impressed really. 

I have had SV for several years, I like it, I'm just more use to interpreting there maps and find there site easy to navigate, A brief description of the upgrade with a more detailed summary on the page,

Description of upgrade

IFS Cycle 46r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions, including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR), in the use of observations, and in modelling. The new cycle only includes meteorological changes; there are no technical changes, e.g. new resolutions.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation of IFS cycle 46R1

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know why y'all even 'subscribe' to those sources...  

You're not missing out on anything using free data.  One can get just as charged/neurotic rocks off ... by BUFKIT in convection season, or snow growth season ... or what's available of the Euro.. and of course, the GFS suite is pretty much an open book to the public anyway. 

You gotta get the charts two hours before general consumption or you missed out?   seems a bit irrational...and I'm not really sure seeing 'tweener sigma level details really changes a general synoptic understanding and intuitively derived interpretation of atmospheric events nearly enough to sweat those two hours.  

But, people have money to part company with it I guess... 

[Cold Miser]

^^   This above me = lol, but makes sense.

[Ginx snewx]

Destructive sunshine led to some rain drops, popcorn 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know why y'all even 'subscribe' to those sources...  

You're not missing out on anything using free data.  One can get just as charged/neurotic rocks off ... by BUFKIT in convection season, or snow growth season ... or what's available of the Euro.. and of course, the GFS suite is pretty much an open book to the public anyway. 

You gotta get the charts two hours before general consumption or you missed out?   seems a bit irrational...and I'm not really sure seeing 'tweener sigma level details really changes a general synoptic understanding and intuitively derived interpretation of atmospheric events nearly enough to sweat those two hours.  

But, people have money to part company with it I guess... 

If you only knew. The free sites are great for the casual Garth types who just want precip, temp, but for those who delve deeper into things they are a godsend. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you only knew. The free sites are great for the casual Garth types who just want precip, temp, but for those who delve deeper into things they are a godsend. 

Yeah and I guess to be fair... I can sufficiently "fill the gaps" just from formal education and shit ... Not everyone has that at there disposal so perhaps those are as much a learning tool as they are a reason to gawk at stuff...  My approach is different than most - understood...  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know why y'all even 'subscribe' to those sources...  

You're not missing out on anything using free data.  One can get just as charged/neurotic rocks off ... by BUFKIT in convection season, or snow growth season ... or what's available of the Euro.. and of course, the GFS suite is pretty much an open book to the public anyway. 

You gotta get the charts two hours before general consumption or you missed out?   seems a bit irrational...and I'm not really sure seeing 'tweener sigma level details really changes a general synoptic understanding and intuitively derived interpretation of atmospheric events nearly enough to sweat those two hours.  

But, people have money to part company with it I guess... 

It's like $10-$25 a month depending on the service.  I mean I get all money isn't equal and it still adds up but for a high level passion that amateurs and Mets have, you are talking $50-$80 a winter or something.  

It's the price of one 4-pack of micro-brew Double IPA a month.

Sort of like asking a football fan why they spend $100 for the package to watch their favorite team play when they could just watch the highlights later or read about it the next day.  

 

[dendrite]

55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you only knew. The free sites are great for the casual Garth types who just want precip, temp, but for those who delve deeper into things they are a godsend. 

weather.us is pretty good for free

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Destructive sunshine led to some rain drops, popcorn 

I think my next home will be on the east side of Lake Winni.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's like $10-$25 a month depending on the service.  I mean I get all money isn't equal and it still adds up but for a high level passion that amateurs and Mets have, you are talking $50-$80 a winter or something.  

It's the price of one 4-pack of micro-brew Double IPA a month.

Sort of like asking a football fan why they spend $100 for the package to watch their favorite team play when they could just watch the highlights later or read about it the next day.  

 

Or you could pay a tiny fee for red zone and watch all the action commercial free on one platform. Kinda like donating here and watch the maps from ginxy and others roll in.

[Cyclone-68]

This is probably a silly question but I’ll ask it here anyway, has Boston ever had a severe thunderstorm move from E to W into the city from the ocean? Excluding hurricanes I guess? 

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Or you could pay a tiny fee for red zone and watch all the action commercial free on one platform. Kinda like donating here and watch the maps from ginxy and others roll in.

True.  I guess the point was for something that gives us all so much enjoyment, paying the price of a 4-pack of Heady Topper or a Treehouse brew once a month for near unlimited model data is a small price to pay.  

Sure you can look at 24-hr increments and get the gist of what the EURO shows but it's fun to look at detailed close up regional maps as they roll out too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It's like $10-$25 a month depending on the service.  I mean I get all money isn't equal and it still adds up but for a high level passion that amateurs and Mets have, you are talking $50-$80 a winter or something.  

It's the price of one 4-pack of micro-brew Double IPA a month.

Sort of like asking a football fan why they spend $100 for the package to watch their favorite team play when they could just watch the highlights later or read about it the next day.  

 

Oh I get that... but that's not the point.

 There is enough tech for free to suffice ...-  or enough to satisfy awareness of what's going on or coming  ...  but it's not about that, huh.   

You know ... as an aside, it kinda smacks as being similar to that photo-tropic smart-phone addiction thing .. yet another peril of modern industrialized entrapment over consumers.   Haha...Okay, so I took liberty with the industrialize entrapment think, but ... the addiction phenomenon is well-documented, scienced, and very real.   

These weather charts and their delivery ... they are plugging into reward circuitriy much in the same way even Silicon Valley now admits pap and graphics do..  No thanks.  I dunno guys.. You part company with your money and you rationalize doing so all you want...  If y'all are doing it really for learning that's one thing... and more power to yaz. I suspect people need to plug into the pleasure circuitry with stem-wound bombs though.  interesting... 

[weathafella]

I pay because:

1.  It makes no difference in my standard of living and I enjoy the information.

2.  The older I get, the more inclined Ian to buy whatever the fuk I want 

[Typhoon Tip]

Herumph! 

nice -

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I get that... but that's not the point.

 There is enough tech for free to suffice ...-  or enough to satisfy awareness of what's going on or coming  ...  but it's not about that, huh.   

You know ... as an aside, it kinda smacks as being similar to that photo-tropic smart-phone addiction thing .. yet another peril of modern industrialized entrapment over consumers.   Haha...Okay, so I took liberty with the industrialize entrapment think, but ... the addiction phenomenon is well-documented, scienced, and very real.   

These weather charts and their delivery ... they are plugging into reward circuitriy much in the same way even Silicon Valley now admits now admits pap and graphics do..  No thanks.  I dunno guys.. You part company with your money and you rationalize doing so all you want...  If y'all are doing it really for learning that's one thing... and more power to yaz. I suspect people need to plug into the pleasure circuitry with stem-wound bombs though.  interesting... 

Maybe I misread your tone bou really are hung up on this psych stuff these days, man.  Everyone rationalizes parting with their money, but who is here to judge why someone buys some scratch off tickets, a daily cup of coffee, an afternoon coka cola, etc... but not sure what the point you keep trying to make about pleasure though.  

Seems everyday there's a veiled shot at folks who get pleasure or enjoyment from different weather or looking at products.  I guess I'm addicted to snow.  I literally shaped my life around it and enjoy skiing 130 days a year.  Maybe that's a bad thing and I need help .

We know plenty of meteorologists also seem to get their rocks off on big progs when they come out.  You don't think NWS doesn't text their friends when a huge stemwinder shows up on a day 3 prog?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just a fantastic day in the CRV!

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe I misread your tone bou really are hung up on this psych stuff these days, man.  Everyone rationalizes parting with their money, but who is here to judge why someone buys some scratch off tickets, a daily cup of coffee, an afternoon coka cola, etc... but not sure what the point you keep trying to make about pleasure though.  

Seems everyday there's a veiled shot at folks who get pleasure or enjoyment from different weather or looking at products.  I guess I'm addicted to snow.  I literally shaped my life around it and enjoy skiing 130 days a year.  Maybe that's a bad thing and I need help .

We know plenty of meteorologists also seem to get their rocks off on big progs when they come out.  You don't think NWS doesn't text their friends when a huge stemwinder shows up on a day 3 prog?

I'm not judging...  not now anyway -

"To me" the logic of purchasing extra charts escapes...  Seems futile.  You've seen X  ...  X's derivative isn't changing X 

But then again, I don't by scratch tickets either ... using your metaphor about gambling.  Not sure it's the same thing..but we'll go with it   

Yeah...like I said, I don't immediately ascertain why anyone would subscribe to see the same stuff.  It's just painted a different way and or delivered a little bit earlier... In struggling to understand why, I come up with reasons/information that seems related/relevant ...   If that's touching nerves - sorry...