dendrite Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Last call to install on the 12z gfs. Wow Summer pushed back out past d10 again. Maybe it'll verify by July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Gotta get rid of that Newfoundland low...it keeps pinching off these ridges trying to build in. Then we end up with a battleground, precip, and on the wrong side of the sfc front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ...no weather page or social handle ever made it big by discussing the model differences between +13C or +16C H85 temps at Day 3 and the possible implications high cirrus might have on those temps. Even the WC had to resort to some of the worse reality shows ever produced in an attempt to boost ratings. Not to mention Mike Seidel's embarrassing on air performance last year. Much of the populace consider mets to be just a step ahead of witch doctors. As you well know the vast majority of the people only want to know if the weather is going to be nice or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 44 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So where’s our heat next week ....sell? Not sure it was ever that certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 WOAH...I was just playing around for fun and clicking stuff on the 384 HR GFS and look at this 700-500 lapse rate I found 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Any warmth is short lived. Persistence rules in today’s climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gotta get rid of that Newfoundland low...it keeps pinching off these ridges trying to build in. Then we end up with a battleground, precip, and on the wrong side of the sfc front. This is precisely correct if it were up to me ... I've been noticing that, a repeating failure ... where major warm ups enter the farthest edge of the extended range ... but within a day or two of cycles it's been hacked off by NW flow like a head in the French Inquisition ... GFS operational just did it yesterday into today... The MOS off 12z yesterday was putting up 84s to 89s for Sunday ...Then, you'd be lucky to find an 80 on that day... and I'm sure it'll be 54 by this time tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thank you And with that, I can officially stop using Wunderground. Welcome to 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is precisely correct if it were up to me ... I've been noticing that, a repeating failure ... where major warm ups enter the farthest edge of the extended range ... but within a day or two of cycles it's been hacked off by NW flow like a head in the French Inquisition ... GFS operational just did it yesterday into today... The MOS off 12z yesterday was putting up 84s to 89s for Sunday ...Then, you'd be lucky to find an 80 on that day... and I'm sure it'll be 54 by this time tomorrow... It leaves around D4 and then.... is quickly replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well to be fair...there's really not a lot of "synoptic" meteorology involved in a May snow event...at least in terms of larger scale pattern. Wavelengths are shortened to the point where we aren't looking at a teleconnection to hint at a May snow threat like we do in, say, February. I know you already know this....so what does that leave to discuss? Well, the smaller scale....we did discuss some of the smaller scale synoptic features like how the ULL was a bit too far northwest to really drive a stronger conveyor....that's how we get something bigger like a May '77. This one just couldn't dig down enough to prodce something more significant. While a few flakes in May down to 600 or 800 feet in May isn't historic, it's definitely pretty rare. My guess is we'd have quite a bit of discussion in here too if we were looking to push mid 90s on a heat ridge...granted, probably not quite as much as the snow slop threat, but still a lot more than typical May weather. This one probably had a bit more discussion too because some of the model guidance leading into it was a bit more threatening. If the same result had happened except it was the other way around....models showing little threat of snow at all, and then a few folks did get some flakes...the discussion would have been a lot more muted due to lack of anticipation. Yeah ... fair enough. Last year we had week of GFS modelling physically impossible high temperatures like northern IA circa 1936. We discussed it. Synoptics and how/why the GFS was so ludicrous. I think pretty confidently .. the atrociously dry lower troposphere/BL conditioning of that model led to its exorbitant high temperatures ... It was putting up 111/62 type T/TD spreads... but as we know, we capped 96s/76 at NWS sites ...and 96/80 on the Davis' - remove those TDs and we probably would have ubiquitously made centennial honors I think in the end excitement elevates contribution ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Welcome to 2019 Sorry, I don't have 1000k weather bookmarked scrolls like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Any warmth is short lived. Persistence rules in today’s climate. Kind of similar to any usable cold being short lived this past winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 We need a sonoran heat release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Sorry, I don't have 1000k weather bookmarked scrolls like you. What are people using now for just basic forecasts and quick maps? I used to use Intellicast, but since it is not part of Weather Underground, the user interface sucks monkey nads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Whineminster said: We need a sonoran heat release Go to EB in Tolland or eat 15$ worth of Taco bell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Torch back on 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What are people using now for just basic forecasts and quick maps? I used to use Intellicast, but since it is not part of Weather Underground, the user interface sucks monkey nads. I use the AM news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Doubt it. Ridge will be over the plains this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Meh with the 3 month outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 12z Euro's a far cry from the SW heat expulsion party it was throwin up for Sunday two days ago, but that look is a beaut nonetheless. Has +6 C over SNE with implied zero ceilings and what PGF there is, is sending lighter diurnal breezes toward the SE... That oughta keep the s-breeze confined to > I-95 over eastern zones and limiting its cooling capacity at that. probably 68 to 72 and deep blues - but squeezing to 75 at places like FIT over to HFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 Did ORH record a T of snow this morning? If so, that would be three in a row (although I'm guessing they are including sleet) in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Doubt it. Ridge will be over the plains this summer. I just found that a little amusing how 1/6th of that time span has busted - Just pokin' around the area climo sites and everyone's decimals to -4 below normal for May. Insidiously cooler than normal too.. It's not that extreme but has been attacking 2 to 5 pm every day in such a way as to leave a particularly bitter perception on how bad it is... Also, of the last 35 days ...I think it was 25 (?) have been < 20% sun. Which means ... the nighttime lows are probably kept slightly elevated, which mutes the significance of just how putrescent it's been because the numbers skew higher. I mean there are those that enjoy this sort of thing... so neurotic about snow, they must ..I don't know, take a smug moral victory lap because cold shit weather keeps them in denial... But I'm not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Doubt it. Ridge will be over the plains this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just found that a little amusing how 1/6th of that time span has busted - Just pokin' around the area climo sites and everyone's decimals to -4 below normal for May. Insidiously cooler than normal too.. It's not that extreme but has been attacking 2 to 5 pm every day in such a way as to leave a particularly bitter perception on how bad it is... Also, of the last 35 days ...I think it was 25 (?) have been < 20% sun. Which means ... the nighttime lows are probably kept slightly elevated, which mutes the significance of just how putrescent it's been because the numbers skew higher. I mean there are those that enjoy this sort of thing... so neurotic about snow, they must ..I don't know, take a smug moral victory lap because cold shit weather keeps them in denial... But I'm not one of them. The lack of sun this May is 2005-esque....not quite on the level of that 3 week shitstorm with only a few days off between reloads....but it's in the same solar system anyway. So many days of slate overcast and light precip intermixed with an occasional bluebird day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 It's going to be a long, long summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It's going to be a long, long summer I bet it lasts through August and then starts getting cooler again in September. Call it a hunch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted May 14, 2019 Share Posted May 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It's going to be a long, long summer Just start singing Cruel Cruel Summer.....or perhaps swing by Macs Two.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I bet it lasts through August and then starts getting cooler again in September. Call it a hunch. Summer should rip right into Oct., then the flip to winter mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 14, 2019 Author Share Posted May 14, 2019 we have a full five months of summer wx and discussion still to come, it's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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