weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I dunno. I agree...there's certainly going to be nice days, but the overall pattern supports nothing sustained. The pattern across the northern hemisphere is just too chaotic. Rossby wave breaking heading into June...lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I dunno. GFS has a high of 91 here Sunday Euro 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS has a high of 91 here Sunday Euro 56 GFS was also 70F yesterday on the 12z Thursday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 This is 384-hr out so not using it as a forecast but the point is...this seems just like a crazy configuration for late May. No signs of relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 6Z GEFS screams back dooring for New England while the rest of the country is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: 6Z GEFS screams back dooring for New England while the rest of the country is warm. Enjoy the backdoor. It's the only one you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have yours hatched? They are everywhere here in town. Soccer last night, folks were covered in them . It was wild I've only seen one hatch, which is surprising. All the other egg sacs I've seen, I've just scraped away. I wish they had all hatched, as this snow and cold would do damage to them...although with all of the rain this spring, they should be short lived anyway due to the gypsy fungus killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 HREF pretty bullish from Mitch to Monads-Gene on NE. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean§or=ne&rd=20190513&rt=0000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: HREF pretty bullish from Mitch to Monads-Gene on NE. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean§or=ne&rd=20190513&rt=0000 Do you think that has any merit? Some of the mesos are really impressive with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Do you think that has any merit? Some of the mesos are really impressive with this It's always hard to say in May. Will mentoioned this yesterday, but the normal conveyor belts, thermal packing, fronto etc usually aren't there to help with a broad area of heavy synoptic precip. However, this has a winter-time look to it...so perhaps we can't ignore that. Seems like best potential for greater than 3-4" is in those areas above 1K. Fly in the ointment would be the dryslot impacting the DGZ in the srn portions and how fast that pivots up. You'll still have precip, but you really need deep, sustained lift into the DGZ for sustained snow and to get those larger amounts. Still a bit of a question mark there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's always hard to say in May. Will mentoioned this yesterday, but the normal conveyor belts, thermal packing, fronto etc usually aren't there to help with a broad area of heavy synoptic precip. However, this has a winter-time look to it...so perhaps we can't ignore that. Seems like best potential for greater than 3-4" is in those areas above 1K. Fly in the ointment would be the dryslot impacting the DGZ in the srn portions and how fast that pivots up. You'll still have precip, but you really need deep, sustained lift into the DGZ for sustained snow and to get those larger amounts. Still a bit of a question mark there. I'd never bet on snow at this date regardless of the models. That said, being at night helps chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd never bet on snow at this date regardless of the models. That said, being at night helps chances. Might be hard near 630' in ORH, but get up to 1k or higher..especially on the spine to your NW...and you'll have a shot of some whitening at the very least. SNE has the dryslot issue...best bet for accumulations certainly would be north. We'll have heavy precip, but some of that precip will be used to help latently cool the atmosphere...so some QPF wasted for that process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I agree...there's certainly going to be nice days, but the overall pattern supports nothing sustained. The pattern across the northern hemisphere is just too chaotic. Rossby wave breaking heading into June...lovely. Well... hold the phone. I'd like to see the indexes that I normally use, the American -based teleconnectors. Those updates hit the general public sources on-line usually after 9. As of yesterday, the CDC PNA evaluation began collapsing the persisting erstwhile positive phase in many members ... Enough so that the mean at CDC had slipped negative out toward D10 ... Both agencies normalizing the -NAO toward 0 SD entering week two. So there's some semblance of an end to this ... Despite my own wanton tendency to do so as a warm enthusiast I didn't bring it up at the time because it was too new of signal ... Continuity concerns requires holding pat. blah blah so we'll see. But, if that signal has legs and comes on yet stronger on this recent cycle, we have an argument that change is afoot ... Just for muse .. I never thought this spring's goop would end up being the complexion of summer and that 2000 was about to redux or anything... It could of course - but...I think of this spring's neggie NAO and plague of relaxed flow meander troughs and their cold pockets, as a train wreck in between the dying off of winter's screaming velocity/gradient and before the subtropical ridges begin showing up seasonally. Sort of a 'stranded' pattern more so than a new paradigm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd never bet on snow at this date regardless of the models. That said, being at night helps chances. Of course the snow will fall, just not in ORH and very unlikely below 800’. the whole time it’s been looking hard to bring thing but an inch of slop below 1000 feet in SNE but Savoy, Heath and Rowe all near 2K will probably see some accumulation , that dry slot swingup will prob limit their’s to 2-4” outside shot of 6” . As far as S VT SW NH up above 1500’ seems obvious that it’s gonna snow and snow quite hard . Question there is will it be 1200’ or 2000’ We forecast based on model soundings not the calendar . If the sounding consistently support 80 In late Feb it will hit 80. If they continuously show snow at 2K in mid May it will snow. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 By the way ..this particular 00z Euro run models a very classic and coherently identifiable southwest heat expulsion/EML plume by D 10. I've referred to these as Sonoran Heat releases, much to the chagrin of Scott for some reason... heh. But with 20 to 21C plume over S Ontario and NY... easily traceable back to a source over the deep desert SW, and an over-arcing theme of ridge expansion while it is injected into the general circulation... that's how the table for heat anomalies gets set. As it is then poised to swath over New England at the end of the run ... with no other inhibitory factors we would abruptly offset any of the month's erstwhile negative departures with mid 90s! But again.. it's a pointless solution as far as I'm concerned until the continuity gets estaiblished ... One thing I have noticed over the decades of life and being tuned to the vagaries of weather and climate. .. When a region typically experiences an anomaly ... there is an offset anomaly that is either of approximate equal magnitude, or ... perhaps achieves so via aggregation of minoring offset anomalies over time. So, say it's 110 F for three days.. it'll be 32 for three days... or, it'll be 70 for a month... Something like that. But climate has a way of balancing time in there. Just at a sort of intuitive level this should make some sense ... A region has above normal and below normal years... but those departures are much less extreme than the week to week variability... so - some how some way the weather finds a way to make climate quotas. It's not going to be this cold and douchy forever - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 It's going to be tough to get big heat here until we get rid of that 50/50 low near NewFoundland. The GFS tries to do that, but I do not see that on the EPS. Until that goes, it will be hard to get more than a day or so of big warmth. That low has been the issue of our recent lousy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 And it has been lousy, All of April and now carrying over into May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 The weather has been great ! No need for 80. this weekend looks solid and Mostly Dry. 65-70. Perfect temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 I feel like Mitch is going to get croaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Yeah, I think Mitch will too, And over to gene is another wild card area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 13, 2019 Author Share Posted May 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: And it has been lousy, All of April and now carrying over into May. Yeah it's been generally lousy up north and east, mixed bag here. It'll all be over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's going to be tough to get big heat here until we get rid of that 50/50 low near NewFoundland. The GFS tries to do that, but I do not see that on the EPS. Until that goes, it will be hard to get more than a day or so of big warmth. That low has been the issue of our recent lousy stretch. Right ... and the 00z oper. Euro does that... outstandingly, too - again, I'm not really inclined to purchase that idea without continuity. However, I will say ...this is the third cycle out of the last five where the Euro's done this... Still could be bullcrap but don't believe this is a cool/wet summer either ...and if I'm going to be right about that, we gotta start moving the chess pieces around. If that emerging teleconnector signal is legit, that is a spread that would unseat the NF set up - so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Right ... and the 00z oper. Euro does that... outstandingly, too - again, I'm not really inclined to purchase that idea without continuity. However, I will say ...this is the third cycle out of the last five where the Euro's done this... Still could be bullcrap but don't believe this is a cool/wet summer. And as I said, if that emerging teleconnector signal is legit, that spread would abase the NF set up - so we'll see It's got to go eventually. End of May sort of fits the time when we can get these big burst of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like Mitch is going to get croaked. He at what 2200’. Most of his falls between 5-11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Any snow that falls in N ORH area looks to be really light. Out in the Berks or further north stands a better chance at accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's got to go eventually. End of May sort of fits the time when we can get these big burst of warmth. And that really seems to be true... I feel there's some legit precedence for making that assertion about end of May heat. Often then fading away into an uninspired, temperate summer as midriff seasonal continental bulge takes over and locks us NW at mid levels some years, or other years just don't seem to hold in general and you get less big numbers. But there are big heat waves in July and August as stand aloner anomalies too - Last year kinda sorta did that.. just later? We had the early July thing ...than other than a DP rich warm season, large top heavy numbers weren't really part of that... But it's the idea of a kind of entrance heat wave/warm departure, that seems to have merit for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Clouds are just arriving. With morning bright sun I am up to 51F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any snow that falls in N ORH area looks to be really light. Out in the Berks or further north stands a better chance at accumulating. That’s how it looks to me at 1K . Some forecasts have a bit more “surprise” potential thou that you can’t sleep on. Just look at the HREF link scooter showed last page and look at max snowy(ensemble). Had 6-8 N ORH over to Ashby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Yesterday I drove through the Berkshires on I-90 and there was several inches of snow at the peak, particularly just east of the I-90 high point. I'm surprised the reports only show 0.5". https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s how it looks to me at 1K . Some forecasts have a bit more “surprise” potential thou that you can’t sleep on. Just look at the HREF link scooter showed last page and look at max snowy(ensemble). Had 6-8 N ORH over to Ashby Yeah... I saw that... the precip really needs to go to town to get anywhere near that. I would sell. A coating to maybe an inch for my area seems more likely. Ashby/Ashburnham/New Ipswich maybe 2-3"...but I have my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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