powderfreak Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Hum, starting to get a bit concerned about Monday night/Tuesdays system. An inch of glop is fine. 6" of heavy wet snow with many trees leafing out is not. GFS/NAM/EURO spitting out 4-6" totals for me. If this holds then tomorrow perhaps is a day to make sure the generator is working. I'd be pretty shocked if you ended up anywhere near 6" but then again you are at elevation. You'd need a mid-level stationary band cranking omega for a good period of time, IMO. The NWS offices except for BOX seem to not be buying into it. Huge bust potential in a high impact way though. I think you want to be 1500-2000ft and higher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'd be pretty shocked if you ended up anywhere near 6" but then again you are at elevation. You'd need a mid-level stationary band cranking omega for a good period of time, IMO. The NWS offices except for BOX seem to not be buying into it. Huge bust potential in a high impact way though. I think you want to be 1500-2000ft and higher though. PF, it seems the heaviest stuff is late night/early morning so perhaps the slight diurnal curve might help getting the snow a few hundred feet lower. Fun to watch it play out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 saw a few cat paws splat on the windshield even leaving MGM car thermometer read 37f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 You really need deep lift into the DGZ for a sustained time for that amount of snow. There are some model differences with this, but the NAM and GFS do show for a time, this may happen. You preferable would want it at night, obviously. Some factors going for this, are deep erly fetch with closed H7 near BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 53 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This weather blows. There, I said it. Agree and backed with anger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordt Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 I give up and I’m not looking at any more models. There will be no summer in New England this year. Today through Tuesday will be the norm through September under either a cut off or back door with only a handful of nice days snuck in between systems. I’m not sure we will have any days above 75 and I think most will be sub 70 with many sub 60. Seriously thinking of canceling all of my summer vacation plans and rebooking for more southern destinations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 1 minute ago, lordt said: I give up and I’m not looking at any more models. There will be no summer in New England this year. Today through Tuesday will be the norm through September under either a cut off or back door with only a handful of nice days snuck in between systems. I’m not sure we will have any days above 75 and I think most will be sub 70 with many sub 60. Seriously thinking of canceling all of my summer vacation plans and rebooking for more southern destinations. Imagine canceling summer prior to climo last frost date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 EURo has 80’s next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, lordt said: I give up and I’m not looking at any more models. There will be no summer in New England this year. Today through Tuesday will be the norm through September under either a cut off or back door with only a handful of nice days snuck in between systems. I’m not sure we will have any days above 75 and I think most will be sub 70 with many sub 60. Seriously thinking of canceling all of my summer vacation plans and rebooking for more southern destinations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 12, 2019 Author Share Posted May 12, 2019 Year without a summer. No 70's until December 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You really need deep lift into the DGZ for a sustained time for that amount of snow. There are some model differences with this, but the NAM and GFS do show for a time, this may happen. You preferable would want it at night, obviously. Some factors going for this, are deep erly fetch with closed H7 near BOS. That’s why I think we have a shot at some accumulation here, It looks to fall mainly at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordt Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EURo has 80’s next weekend GFS says back door. We will back door and it will stick around long enough until the next cut off comes in from the west. And 50s/rain will continue. Back door - cut off - back door - cut off and on and on. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: PF, it seems the heaviest stuff is late night/early morning so perhaps the slight diurnal curve might help getting the snow a few hundred feet lower. Fun to watch it play out... Yeah it definitely is at the right time of night (after midnight) and you've got elevation. 1-3" seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 I cannot believe they are playing this Red Sox game at Fenway. Seattle must not be anywhere near Fenway again this season to make up a game but man that looks miserable in the stands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 SPC HREF is rather snowy above 1k it seems. Obviously take any output algorithm with caution, but the theme is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 40F here with moderate rain. -30F below normal, impressive for nearly mid-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 12, 2019 Author Share Posted May 12, 2019 12z ggem searing next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I cannot believe they are playing this Red Sox game at Fenway. Seattle must not be anywhere near Fenway again this season to make up a game but man that looks miserable in the stands. Tough trip-if the current score holds Mariners will be 1-7 for NY-BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 0.75" of rain here since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Euro goes to town up here. Clown map for a 10/1 ratio which I would doubt but looks like snow whitening ground on Tuesday AM. Just got finished cutting all the birch that were damaged in Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: SPC HREF is rather snowy above 1k it seems. Obviously take any output algorithm with caution, but the theme is there. On thing about a few of those models in the HREF is that they use hydrometeor percentage to output snow, rather than a straight Kuchera or 10:1 below a certain threshold. And WPC is producing grids, so it should be WPC snow ratios. The 3km NAM is definitely putting ORH in the game on the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: On thing about a few of those models in the HREF is that they use hydrometeor percentage to output snow, rather than a straight Kuchera or 10:1 below a certain threshold. And WPC is producing grids, so it should be WPC snow ratios. The 3km NAM is definitely putting ORH in the game on the last run. Ocean, are you working tomorrow night/Tuesday AM? I usually use FB to send in my reports. Will be very elevation dependent. Leaf out is around 1000 feet in my area guess that would make any tree damage more significant if we get more than a couple of inches of glop snow before any solar insolation gets to work Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Ocean, are you working tomorrow night/Tuesday AM? I usually use FB to send in my reports. Will be very elevation dependent. Leaf out is around 1000 feet in my area guess that would make any tree damage more significant if we get more than a couple of inches of glop snow before any solar insolation gets to work Tuesday morning I'll be the swing shift both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'll be the swing shift both days. Time to put that 10 year recognization into work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Good snow at hunter NY https://huntermtn.roundshot.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Time to put that 10 year recognization into work. I mean it's a little wild that the NAM is a winter storm watch scenario. Even the GFS is a blue bomb above 1000 ft. So it's not that far a move off accumulation in valley locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Ocean, are you working tomorrow night/Tuesday AM? I usually use FB to send in my reports. Will be very elevation dependent. Leaf out is around 1000 feet in my area guess that would make any tree damage more significant if we get more than a couple of inches of glop snow before any solar insolation gets to work Tuesday morning Leaves here are still pretty small. I would expect similar at your place. I think unless you get 4”+ you will be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Been waiting for this storm for several days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Have we switched official obs to the Tarmac at BDL yet? I know is the tail end of the HRRR run from 12z but that gray shading is a T of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 12, 2019 Share Posted May 12, 2019 Leaf out is around 25-50% at lake level up here which is around 550 feet. Most of the population lives at between 600-1000 feet. I'm one of the higher homes at 1100 feet with about 20% leaf out. Leaves are small for the most part. Whatever happens, will be in that 32-34F range which does the most damage if this should happen. I like weather that is out of the ordinary so accumulating snow on May 14th is an interesting phenomenon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now