April 2019 Discussion II

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS ...particularly that 06z version, precariously flirts with 2005  ....  that's almost a redux ...  the only difference is, we don't know if that -NAO western limb REX configuration is semi-permanent.. But at least for 48 hours, that's an analog. 

The worst April ever experience by any man woman or child, living in the cold dudgeon prison that is New England was the month of May, 2005.  Subjectively ...the greatest sore-butt spring month of all time. 

15 some-odd consecutive days of 42 to 46 F afternoons over 39 F nights, with three distinct acceleration events of NE wind and rain-lashed gales penetrating deep inland, with even grapple and noodle flakes reported at FIT and the Worcester Hills through mid month. Between the 20th and the end of the month ...  no hurry to clean it up, either...as 50 F mist and shrouded ceilings persisted, allowing very little if any sun at all, until June 1st - 4th.

What happened was ... a western limb NAO, much like you see in the 300 + hour range of the GFS' 06z run, set up over top of near coastal trough couplet, and that regime was so stable that it simply could not break down.  The N/stream would upon occasion ... dangle some S/W mechanics through the Lakes that would get deposited into the backside of the deep layer M/A vortex, and it would re-deepen the total structure and retrograde slamming waves of wind and cold rain in the New England...   Three successive times that happened with no intervening fairness of weather to report.  

Thankfully ...this is over 300 hours away and we are saved by the lack of confidence this time.   

[Sn0waddict]

Starting to look like the warm front tomorrow will make it through a good portion of CT.  Maybe even some sun mixing in with the clouds too?

[weathafella]

We’ll be driving down to NYC later...picking up our daughter at JFK tomorrow morning after her 3 months off the grid in Nepal.   Probably will hang around the city all day tomorrow to delay the wx misery that will await us in Boston.

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We’ll be driving down to NYC later...picking up our daughter at JFK tomorrow morning after her 3 months off the grid in Nepal.   Probably will hang around the city all day tomorrow to delay the wx misery that will await us in Boston.

Welcome home sis

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

Starting to look like the warm front tomorrow will make it through a good portion of CT.  Maybe even some sun mixing in with the clouds too?

Not speaking to whatever source you are using to make that assessment ... 

But there does not appear ( from what sources I use.. ) there is any warm front differentiating thru CT like that sounds ? 

In fact, the discrete pressure pattern depicted across most meso models have a pretty discerned BD boundary pressing into HFD around or just prior to 2pm... which in reality could be two hours sooner given to the nature of surface resolution ... even in these finer meshed models... In fact, the 3km NAM really has CT inside the pressure rises everywhere by 18z.  Either way, this boundary then makes SW towns by 4 or 5 pm ... So in total, the impetus is not a warm front making it through anywhere ... more like a back-door cold ... well "colder" front probably slamming shut back screen doors and extending flags backward... probably, with a thick stratus when it happens too.  

[Sn0waddict]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not speaking to whatever source you are using to make that assessment ... 

But there does not appear ( from what sources I use.. ) there is any warm front differentiating thru CT like that sounds ? 

In fact, the discrete pressure pattern depicted across most meso models have a pretty discerned BD boundary pressing into HFD around or just prior to 2pm... which in reality could be two hours sooner given to the nature of surface resolution ... even in these finer meshed models... In fact, the 3km NAM really has CT inside the pressure rises everywhere by 18z.  Either way, this boundary then makes SW towns by 4 or 5 pm ... So in total, the impetus is not a warm front making it through anywhere ... more like a back-door cold ... well "colder" front probably slamming shut back screen doors and extending flags backward... probably, with a thick stratus when it happens too.  

Oh could of mentioned that yes it’s short lived, it will be quite an impressive temperature change tomorrow afternoon/evening as the BD comes through. But I’ll take anything we can get.  

Also the RGEM and 12z HRRR seems to want to fire up some storms along this boundary as well, for whatever that’s worth lol

[#NoPoles]

I havent studied the topography of Nashville, however storms die out 20ish miles west of here, and form 10-15 east of here...but nothing gets to Nashville...wondering if Nashville is in a bowl?

[weathafella]

On 5/1/2019 at 12:27 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Welcome home sis

Thanks Steve.   We walked high line park on the west side of Manhattan near the Hudson River after having a great lunch.  Temps in the mid 70s.   We got back to Boston with my wife complaining about how cold it is....lol.  Daughter says it feels not that cold....it was pretty chilly actually.   Off today-at least it’s not raining...