weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Even though this isn't the May 1st thread I'm going to finally explain why that date is of significance. It has nothing to do with the weather. That is when climatologically we have our first chances for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Even though this isn't the May 1st thread I'm going to finally explain why that date is of significance. It has nothing to do with the weather. That is when climatologically we have our first chances for severe weather. Any explanation why "Any Severe Probabilities*" at all stops at the other side of Kevin's lawn ...effectively leaving him out of it by all of a blade of grass ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Any explanation why "Any Severe Probabilities*" at all stops at the other side of Kevin's lawn ...effectively leaving him out of it by all of a blade of grass ? Downsloping from his roof kills moisture/instability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Any explanation why "Any Severe Probabilities*" at all stops at the other side of Kevin's lawn ...effectively leaving him out of it by all of a blade of grass ? From SPC: These probability values were estimated from a 30-year period of severe weather reports from 1982-2011. The procedure to create the maps is as follows: 1. Reports for each day are put onto a grid 80 km x 80 km. 2. If one or more reports occur in a grid box, that box is assigned the value "1" for the day. If no reports occur, it's a zero. 3. The raw frequency for each day at each grid location is found for the period (number of "1" values divided by number of years) to get a raw annual cycle. 4. The raw annual cycle at each point is smoothed in time, using a Gaussian filter with a standard deviation of 15 days. 5. The smoothed time series are then smoothed in space with a 2-D Gaussian filter (SD = 120 km in each direction). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 So by their metric we're 3 times as likely to see Kevin's oaks dropped on his house on July 4th than on May 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 This sounding is nuts from the NAM for northern TX tomorrow evening. Look at that hail analog haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The total is now up to 21 days with measurable rain in April. Certainly has been a wet month. 18 days here, unless the echoes above our place can produce something that reaches the ground - tough with dews 30° lower than temps. Not all that wet, however (thankfully, given the snowpack SWE on 4/1), with 4.24", a massive 0.23" AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The total is now up to 21 days with measurable rain in April. Certainly has been a wet month. Most days with rain in any month ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Oh my...check out this 15z HRRR sounding for MLC in OK later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Most days with rain in any month ever Pretty amazing. Just one month but wonder if this is a precursor to how things play out in the future. Have to say it's been noticeably cloudy. Seems like that has been said more often in the past couple years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Heavy dews and floods with cool wx, everything is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Lately Spring is looking as good as a Chris sale start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 hours ago, BrianW said: http://www.sercc.com/perspectivesmap?region=CONUS cool site, thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Another deep summer day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Another deep summer day Yeah these Sonoran Release events really make it huh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Anyone remember the new adjustment to differentiate a regular watch vs. a PDS TOR watch? Is it 80% probability of 2 or more tornadoes or 80% probability of one or more strong tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Anyone remember the new adjustment to differentiate a regular watch vs. a PDS TOR watch? Is it 80% probability of 2 or more tornadoes or 80% probability of one or more strong tornadoes? Does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Does it matter? The term "PDS" brings about an entirely different emotional chemical. It's like ordering a regular cheeseburger with cheese and bacon and opening it to find out they gave you two meat patties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Getting some breaks of blue and sun in CT now AWT. Dry not bad day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting some breaks of blue and sun in CT now AWT. Dry not bad day Congrats, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Blue bomb on the D11 Euro ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 i guess we can move to the May discussion thread for this D11 bomb? I will start up the June one also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Most days with rain in any month ever Yea, it’s been a great spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting some breaks of blue and sun in CT now AWT. Dry not bad day Crack kills...or at least messes with our perception of reality. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, it’s been a great spring. *summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 If folks want to feel better, we had a little snow here in St. Johnsbury this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Getting some breaks of blue and sun in CT now AWT. Dry not bad day Lol its been misty cloudy and upper 40s all day a brief break here but back to clouds. Helluva way to run summer. Gibbs still saying May 5th heat up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Best sultan month ever. Let's rip non-stop rains right through June. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: The term "PDS" brings about an entirely different emotional chemical. It's like ordering a regular cheeseburger with cheese and bacon and opening it to find out they gave you two meat patties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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