RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, mreaves said: Wow, even we are open. Courses are open but who the eff wants to play in this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ended up not an awful week. Much less rain than circles made you think . Most days dry with showers at night. Salvaged Drunk and high. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Drunk and high. Some people prefer delusion over despair ... open able and willing to consume fake news because the reality is just too much to bear 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Nothing says mid spring like 44° and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yes it does ... The problem is that we keep spinning up these vortexes and either parking them in the lower maritimes or when one moves out ...the next just rolls into that region in the means. So long as that's the case and we keep trying to raise heights over the Mid Atlantic ...what looks initially like a warm pattern ends up opposite - the heights pressing N only enhances confluence over SE Canada and that drives +PP wedging S clear to NJ or the VA Capes... It seems that result sets up three consecutive times right out to the end of the 15 days of ever GFS runs dating back to Saturday... god, you know I hate it when the vagaries of wind and weather wend their way into a pattern that's seemingly deliberately constructed antithetic to spring/warmth, and then won't stop either ... until half the f'ing summer has been gobbled up by it... Is that our fate this time? Where the first chunk of summer gets violated relentlessly until we really only get like a 45 day warm season before the autumn starts claiming days from the other side. Fast approaching mid summer sun angles ... and we're able to debate 1,000 foot elevation cat paws - fuggin straight up insult. Oh, but rest assured! We're putting up a 3rd all-time warmest April on the planet Earth all around us while that happens, too - Our only saving grace may be to hope that we establish rather strong riding across the southwestern and southern United States and we eventually see a northward retreat of the jet just due to climo. But I feel like as long as we continue to see a SLP anomaly configuration as shown below we aren't going to see many prolonged stretches of pleasant weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Some people prefer delusion over despair ... open able and willing to consume fake news because the reality is just too much to bear Fake news, like our idiot in chief. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man these days of summer have been epic. I don't know what to do with myself. do they make any meds for Seasonal Affective Disorder? A doctor's visit might be in order for myself and others on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: do they make any meds for Seasonal Affective Disorder? A doctor's visit might be in order for myself and others on the board. Comfortably numb weather. Your lips move, but I can't hear what you're saying. Hands felt just like two balloons. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Maybe some elevated convection tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Drunk and high. Most day periods are dry. Rain at night. Not cold. You and Tip whining like it’s 37 with rain everyday. Man up. Pattern breaks warm next week as Shabbs has been explaining . Your cold weeklies for May did a big flip last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 NNJ tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Oh pleezy weezie, with sugar on top.. make Saturday be at least a temporary reprieve. ...a light at the end of the tunnel for this immediate week of torment. ..There is a sneaky signal for a top 20 if not top 10 day. The Euro flags a 'COL' afternoon ...basically, light and variable wind. But under a partly sunny look and 850 mbs of 10 C. If so would support low 70s under equivalent August 15th sun irradiance. Heh.. I'm such a dweeb in the spring; I follow and track 'nice' weather chances in the spring like the red-eyed neurotic 'carpet surfacing' snow snorter addicts do in December. haha. But seriously that day is also flagged as a possible gem in the GFS version as well.. It has a weak ridge axis situated roughly eastern NY at 18z ...with weak low exiting the outer waters of the GOM ... which puts the region in a laze faire gradient vector pointed ESE through the boundary layer... 850s similar around 10 or 11 C. 700 RH is marginal for ceilings,... but with a general light kadabatic flow we can probably edge that optimistic... MOS is 71 as it is, some 10 above climate for D5, a circumstance that could be holding that down some. We'll see if holds and I'm not sure what the Euro's cloud products look like but 70-75 with nape sun and light wind for a day perhaps ... That's the way May is set up it seems .. a return base-line shit smear pattern. We've just wended our way into either an out-and-out -NAO ...or one that is mimicking one by forcing the 50/50 low persistence... So long as that vortex is meandering there, and these ridges attempt to bulge NE into New England.. this is likely to set up: ... all that does is intensifies the surface counter -vector. This may be one of the more pernicious versions of that I've ever seen... I mean heights over southern NJ are soaring into mid 580s dm... and there is a whopper BD presentation in the surface pressure pattern in that vicinity with 850s over top that would support almost 90 F ... but they'll be 48 F with drizzle because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Our only saving grace may be to hope that we establish rather strong riding across the southwestern and southern United States and we eventually see a northward retreat of the jet just due to climo. But I feel like as long as we continue to see a SLP anomaly configuration as shown below we aren't going to see many prolonged stretches of pleasant weather. Yup ... I just threw up some annotation effort to help synoptically describe how your generalization there contributes to our plight ... That sort of result may dictate May ...or until further notice. These late -NAOs ...they are really toxic man - they do absolutely nothing good for anyone. You ain't snowin if your neurotic enough to hold or even covet hope... and you definitely are not getting f'ed outta anything spring appealing... Just think... there are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 million souls residing E of the Hudson and N of Cape May NJ ... with numbers so large, someone in there is lubing up with hand lotion over 42 F light rain ... I guess you wait long enough, you get the weather you dream about, huh - This is why the first million dollar after taxes I've procured ... a substantial amount of it is going to be purchasing a separate piece of realestate so where far away from this asshole geography between April 1 and May 20th of every year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Wow, even we are open. Spring golf in VT certainly has its challenges. Playing at Middlebury's course in early May, it would often be so spongy that you'd hit a drive right down the middle and the ball would just plug upon landing. Didn't even leave a visible entry point, just plugged and sealed the entry point. Thankfully we were usually a few beers deep and didn't care enough to be pissed at having to take a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Man, the most negative the NAO has been all cold season on May frickin 1st. That is almost so cruel as to think it intentional... I’d be more optimistic if we could at least see a big storm out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Man, the most negative the NAO has been all cold season on May frickin 1st. That is almost so cruel as to think it intentional... I’d be more optimistic if we could at least see a big storm out of this... I hear ya ... well in support of any commiseration effort through this folks. And no... no big storms... Just theft ... a heist of spring, stolen away by misery's big interminable governance. But, even in this sea of puss weather pattern, there are islands... Like I said, it may not be sustained but there is an early signal here to salvage Saturday... Man, if it were 73 F with partly sunny sky and light/no wind, it would just be weird - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 actually ... the Euro isn't terrible beyond D7 ... I mean, if one wants 2010 to walk through the door you're not likely getting that arrival ... but the charts offer some faux mild day efforts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Fake news, like our idiot in chief. Post of the year!!!! 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Some people prefer delusion over despair ... open able and willing to consume fake news because the reality is just too much to bear Give it another week and he will be mentioning that "mets" on twitter are discussing a repeat of 1816. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: do they make any meds for Seasonal Affective Disorder? A doctor's visit might be in order for myself and others on the board. There is a clinic in Toolland. Just mention certain key words/ phrases such as "high dews"...."install"....and you'll receive a 25 percent discount at the clinic and a Seasons in Seasons T shirt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Still obsessing about me. Look up his posts. 80% are an obsession about me. Disturbing and unsettling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Still obsessing about me. Look up his posts. 80% are an obsession about me. Disturbing and unsettling Nah most are about sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Fwiw - adding to the commiseration ... Harvey's broadcast last night, he seemed to feature a historic achievement ... I just caught it - so check this ... - but it appeared Logan broke a record for number of days in April with measurable rainfall at 20 ... The previous was 19 ... If that's true, there's empirical data to support this as being legit beyond mere perception. No flooding ... beyond yard mallards taking advantage prior to the ground thaw -type puddling, either ...So those that engage via general-purpose entertainment circuitry had those wires cut too... That's really a carry-over ...almost 'affectation' of the winter. We've had trouble getting things to 'entertain' - if that makes any sense. It seems there is a tendency to dumb -down events toward mediocrity .. pedestrian and uninspired. I think as far as winter goes, a lot of that was because of the fast flow contamination we've been dealing with since global warming's accelerated curve began bumping into the hemisphere's desperate attempt to cool winter heights. We keep ending up with surplus sloped heights between 35 and 60 N in recent winters ...going back 10 years really... blah blah 'nother physical debate... But it's a detraction from cyclogen. Oh, we get bombs still... it's not a total detraction ...just that the fast nature of the flow does tax on kinematic interaction and make outcomes less impacting do to short residence cycles, but also ... shearing ends up more inhibitory. So what happens here... we relay from that kind of hemisphere into a slacked gradient -NAO ... Where's the luck... I fail to see how the previous four months of speedy flow inhibition has much to do with situating slower velocity cut-off ridges at high latitude without some kind of roulette chanciness but ... who knows. Winter was robbed... now, spring is robbed... by apparently, disparate causality so it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 I wish I was better with/more confident in forecasting fog. Seems like something that should be rather simple...although I guess the more difficult aspect is determining the degree of the impact fog may have. 13 hours and 14 minutes until May 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fwiw - adding to the commiseration ... Harvey's broadcast last night, he seemed to feature a historic achievement ... I just caught it - so check this ... - but it appeared Logan broke a record for number of days in April with measurable rainfall at 20 ... The previous was 19 ... If that's true, there's empirical data to support this as being legit beyond mere perception. No flooding ... beyond yard mallards taking advantage prior to the ground thaw -type puddling, either ...So those that engage via general-purpose entertainment circuitry had those wires cut too... That's really a carry-over ...almost 'affectation' of the winter. We've had trouble getting things to 'entertain' - if that makes any sense. It seems there is a tendency to dumb -down events toward mediocrity .. pedestrian and uninspired. I think as far as winter goes, a lot of that was because of the fast flow contamination we've been dealing with since global warming's accelerated curve began bumping into the hemisphere's desperate attempt to cool winter heights. We keep ending up with surplus sloped heights between 35 and 60 N in recent winters ...going back 10 years really... blah blah 'nother physical debate... But it's a detraction from cyclogen. Oh, we get bombs still... it's not a total detraction ...just that the fast nature of the flow does tax on kinematic interaction and make outcomes less impacting do to short residence cycles, but also ... shearing ends up more inhibitory. So what happens here... we relay from that kind of hemisphere into a slacked gradient -NAO ... Where's the luck... I fail to see how the previous four months of speedy flow inhibition has much to do with situating slower velocity cut-off ridges at high latitude without some kind of roulette chanciness but ... who knows. Winter was robbed... now, spring is robbed... by apparently, disparate causality so it seems. The total is now up to 21 days with measurable rain in April. Certainly has been a wet month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 6Z FV3 GFS also the GFS. to some extent was qpf loaded!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6Z FV3 GFS also the GFS. to some extent was qpf loaded!! Exciting times. Deserves a third exclamation point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 http://www.sercc.com/perspectivesmap?region=CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, BrianW said: http://www.sercc.com/perspectivesmap?region=CONUS Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I wish I was better with/more confident in forecasting fog. Seems like something that should be rather simple...although I guess the more difficult aspect is determining the degree of the impact fog may have. 13 hours and 14 minutes until May 1st And the weather won't be any better than April 30 . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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