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April 2019 Discussion II


powderfreak
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9 minutes ago, radarman said:

Just a beastly little cell yesterday, overachiever for sure.

KBOX on the left

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Definitely a cool event. Low freezing levels and cold boundary layer certainly helped get those hailstones to the ground.

The environment could definitely support elevated supercells given ~1000 j/kg of MUCAPE and 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. When I saw those updrafts getting feisty over Long Island and SW CT I thought we might have some issues with severe hail. 

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Screen Shot 2019-04-27 at 4.43.58 PM.png

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Been a crappy crappy April down here on the CT shoreline. According to my station 20 of the last 31 days have had measurable rainfall. I am also having terrible solar production with my panel compared to prior Aprils. 

 

Screenshot_20190428-080351_My AcuRite.jpg

 

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Careful bringing antithetic empirical data into an "everything is awesome" support group...

I think that's all probably closer to the reality across the NE region of the United States, too - regardless of how ever mental/emotional stability are so keyed into atmospheric states that we like to create lies to allay our suffering. haha!

Heh.. I tell ya... It's hard out there for a realist.  

Yeah, come seven or so days from now, if that model blend pulls off a +2 SD warm ridge on the MA while ironically only getting even more cruelly cool and chilly in New England, a marginally permissible spring gets 86 heaped in a hurry.  Right into the annuls of rectal glue -

 

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...and it is, a horror pattern for spring/warm enthusiasts - to which I admit I reside in my personal campaigns by the time May rolls around. So take the following sardonically..

This years rendition of 'how to stop warm air' comes by transitive -NAO influence.  I think it was Ray that was commiserating his muse two months back, when he opined the certainty -NAO onslaught in April :axe: " ...when we really want it"   - ha... yup.  It's all Ray's fault.

Last year this happened in March ... early enough to cash in for winter enthusiasts.. But, unless one is coveting some form of secret, petty-smugness because they so loathe 'nice' weather it actually gives them relief to see others bathe in this kind of sensible weather ... it is hard to see anyone preferring jamming NE trade winds into eastern NE for the first 10 days of May. Otherwise, it can't do anything useful for the 97.34 percentile.  

I still gotta rank 2005 as the apex criminal violation against humanity by God himself... It's just too bad that all-encompassing force the binds the cosmos together in an infinite tapestry of miraculous splendor doesn't have to answer to any higher order because man ... he made a mistake that year... heh.

But seriously, there is a very high latitude blocking in the western limb of the NAO domain, and anchoring underneath ...right smack over the Labrador Sea proper, we are seeing all models anchor a deep layer closed vortex... That's a stable Rex configuration, and one that is going to control the sensible weather here ... Like a tentacle of misery, it reaches an influence thousands of miles back SW ... all the way to coastal New England.  Said stability means it may last for a week or more, too... who knows. 

What happens is... that vortex doesn't budge in that time. It merely wobbles around a center axis but essentially it bulk stays situated as such.

Meanwhile... beginning late in the short term, ridging begins to balloon up along the eastern seaboard.  Now, ...at first glance we might think a summer blast is about to unfold but nope... All that ridge does is squeezes against the cut-off vortex. That strengthens the confluence over Quebec/SE Canada, and the adjacent lower maritimes.  In total, enhancing the mean BD vector even more... So, the ironic rub is, the "warm" ridge appeal only has the opposite effect in the lower levels, cold here.   

This is our spring plight of rites in New England.  Events half way to England "emerge" reasons to f us out of true tulip weather. 

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