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April 2019 Discussion II


powderfreak
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1 minute ago, ct_yankee said:

Interesting situation. If you believe mesoanalysis that storm had nothing going for it... Except some moderately strong low level shear helped by locally backed winds. Seeming very unlikely to produce in that environment - but then there shouldn't have been a cell that strong there in the 1st place.

Meso models showed rotation aloft from UH swaths. It was modeled with good MUCAPE push.

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1 minute ago, ct_yankee said:

Interesting situation. If you believe mesoanalysis that storm had nothing going for it... Except some moderately strong low level shear helped by locally backed winds. Seeming very unlikely to produce in that environment - but then there shouldn't have been a cell that strong there in the 1st place.

Depends what we mean by 'shouldn't'

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4 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Yeah, should have qualified that... Lets just say that lapse rates/poor instability made a severe supercell unlikely there. 

fair 'nough ... but, the warm push is ( ironically ) probably greater than the modeling predicted 'above the BL' ...which makes it moot for sensible weather but probably an important factor for sustaining cores above ...    Funny, it's like skipping a stone off a pond -

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People in/and of society are now melodrama junkies due to now decade(s) of over stimulation of horrors and dystopian wonders constantly being bombarded - ... whether they realize it or not, "life" seems boring now ... too boring, when relative quiescence of the ordinary everyday leaves them strangely unsatisfied... So, unconsciously ... people are reactionary to help fulfill that void(s) - 

This is probably no different than any elevated cluster of thunderstorms ... ( called thundershowers back in the day when it did this...), where circa 1982 ... people amble across mall parkinglots with umbrellas open ... while a raging meso disks it way over top of good old fashioned putrid New England spring atmosphere ... completely unaware.   But now!  Look out...  we got the entertainment of hair raising terror at every angle.  

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44 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Yeah, should have qualified that... Lets just say that lapse rates/poor instability made a severe supercell unlikely there. 

Lapse rates alone don’t hinder localized severe weather potential. I’m not sure I would say instability was poor...nearly 500 J of MUCape and about 5,000’ off the ground..plenty when combined with the shear to promote rotation.

 

given the overall stability though it was unlikely such a feature would extend to the ground 

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