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April 2019 Discussion II


powderfreak
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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Semantics but DIT will argue that 65F is not summer weather.  Wait till someone throws out highs in the 60s in July as perfect summer weather :lol:.

60-65F seems like perfect spring.

Early summer right now..mid summer in July we really roast. Late summer usually ends in September or early Oct., when we head into early winter.

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48 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Early summer right now..mid summer in July we really roast. Late summer usually ends in September or early Oct., when we head into early winter.

I do always like just having two season names instead of 4.... you have a cold season and a warm season.

This evening cleared up right at 3-4pm and the late day light means a lot of extra time in the day.  It's crazy that the entire time I was out hiking and skiing this evening, it is pitch black dark in December at that time (5-6pm).

58383501_10103716903941570_5544712245520

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The weather forecasts for the Nashville area have not been accurate at all. Im wondering if the models are struggling for this area or the meteorologists down here just are subpar compared to New England. We had 2 unforecasted frosts. The forecasted high temps have been way off. 2 weeks ago we hit the upper 80s, almost 90 and that was way underforecasted, and the convection forecasts have been crap.

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I do always like just having two season names instead of 4.... you have a cold season and a warm season.

This evening cleared up right at 3-4pm and the late day light means a lot of extra time in the day.  It's crazy that the entire time I was out hiking and skiing this evening, it is pitch black dark in December at that time (5-6pm).

58383501_10103716903941570_5544712245520

Looks pretty bare

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Congrats paul!

An additional concern for Friday night will be the combination of
the triple point low, marginal surface based instability with
temps/dew points in the mid and upper 50s in the warm sector,
accompanied by strong low level and deep layer shear. This may
support a few rotating storms but will likely remain elevated given
lack of surface based instability. Nevertheless will have to watch
how this evolves with later model runs.
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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The final weeks.  It does take forever to really finish off.  The humid stretches last week really torched it.

Yeah, that was a massacre. Too bad that happened. You maybe could have been skiing into June with several lifts running. Shut 'em down July 4th with libations and fireworks celebrations, then it's summer.

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55 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

The weather forecasts for the Nashville area have not been accurate at all. Im wondering if the models are struggling for this area or the meteorologists down here just are subpar compared to New England. We had 2 unforecasted frosts. The forecasted high temps have been way off. 2 weeks ago we hit the upper 80s, almost 90 and that was way underforecasted, and the convection forecasts have been crap.

Models struggling to handle the transition into grand solar minimum?

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A one, two punch of snow for here this weekend? We take!

Backside flip to snow and upslope with storm #1 and then a cold slider on Sunday for storm #2? That would pretty wild if I had snow on snow at this time of year...but then again it happened last year on 4/30. Glad we live here.

Anyway, the lawn has been raked of winter detritus. No black flies yet FTW. There's a slight hint of green in my grass in the warmer, sunnier spots right up against the house but most of it is still dormant, which is a far cry from the valleys where they are mowing already. Some of the red maples have begun to flower, but most of the trees still look like winter. 

 

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1 hour ago, wxmanmitch said:

A one, two punch of snow for here this weekend? We take!

Backside flip to snow and upslope with storm #1 and then a cold slider on Sunday for storm #2? That would pretty wild if I had snow on snow at this time of year...but then again it happened last year on 4/30. Glad we live here.

Anyway, the lawn has been raked of winter detritus. No black flies yet FTW. There's a slight hint of green in my grass in the warmer, sunnier spots right up against the house but most of it is still dormant, which is a far cry from the valleys where they are mowing already. Some of the red maples have begun to flower, but most of the trees still look like winter. 

 

It's basically a summer feel down here in civilization. Thank goodness.

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20 hours ago, tamarack said:

Bears in New England generally breed every 2nd year, and mama usually chases off the 2-yr-olds before going into hibernation and dropping the next litter.  I think boar bears are bigger even as cubs.  My most thrilling wildlife memory was one September when I walked up on 3 bears, mama and a pair of 2nd-year cubs, chowing down in the tops of 2 beech trees.  I'd stopped in an awkward position, and after 10 minutes of their chomping and breaking branches, I slowly sat.  Not slowly enough - mama caught the movement and came down the tree atop speed - reminded me of lumberjack events where the contestants race up a pole, ring the bell, and are timed when they hit the ground.  Mama launched from about 15' and hit the ground running.  My only danger would've been if she'd forgotten where I was and trampled me.  I could hear her crashing away for a couple minutes.  Cub #1 followed her, #2 climbed 15' into another tree and perched on a large branch.  I walked to right under it, but had to leave after a few seconds because its whining was unbearably (pun intended) piteous.  Given the season and those cubs' size, I suspect mama never tried to get back to them.  

At least black bears aren't protective of their cubs like grizzlies.  I'd still be cautious intruding.

8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Models struggling to handle the transition into grand solar minimum?

How's that progressing?

 

Meanwhile, what a beautiful late April Friday on tap......summer's here.  Not.

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6 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

A one, two punch of snow for here this weekend? We take!

Backside flip to snow and upslope with storm #1 and then a cold slider on Sunday for storm #2? That would pretty wild if I had snow on snow at this time of year...but then again it happened last year on 4/30. Glad we live here.

Anyway, the lawn has been raked of winter detritus. No black flies yet FTW. There's a slight hint of green in my grass in the warmer, sunnier spots right up against the house but most of it is still dormant, which is a far cry from the valleys where they are mowing already. Some of the red maples have begun to flower, but most of the trees still look like winter. 

 

Glad we don't live there.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Hopefully the wedge verifies a little more south and convection can rob some of the mid level moisture from making it up here. I’d like to verify on the low end of these 1-2” model runs. We were just finally drying out. 

Even after 2 days of warm sun and low dews my soil was wet 2 inches under. The first heavy shower this morning resulted in instant puddles and mud. Rivers have stayed high and murky. Hopefully we can transition to a ridge pattern.

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