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April 2019 Discussion II


powderfreak
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We'll have to see if this has legs but ... the 00z Euro continued where the 12z left off in evolving more eastern ridge along and beneath the 45th parallel. 

Not for not ... the GFS does so too, however ... appears to wait a couple days to get it done - don't look at the lower tropospheric synoptics, though ... this model does this. It runs out, finds some exo-planets are Eridon Indy that has butterfly life...and then uses their wing flaps to engineer offsetting cold here on Earth. It is thus dubious and uber infuriating...  I think part of the issue with the GFS is that it has too much torsional production and when anticyclonic fields are set into motion nearing 90 W it over assesses the backward curl near 70W ... I mean, it's real...but maybe it's too aggressive.   The longer version is what tends to bring us BD events among other reasons to retard warm arrival.  But it in general arms too much ridging underneath the polarward rims of these continental r-wave warm signals so warm fronts like never get east of the Hudson with this f model...

Now that I've glossed over eyes my goal is complete...

Anyway, excluding details beneath the 500 mb tapestry for a seconds... Both the Euro and the GFS eventually... are both doing a continental 'tuck' pattern down stream of a pretty significant -EPO burst.  What's interesting ... the 00z version of the GFS doesn't have a very defined -EPO ...but aligns the ambient westerlies similarly nonetheless... I mean, we don't have to necessarily have a -EPO to get a robust ridge over the eastern U.S.... but it certainly helps by basic wave spacing arguments to anchor that look.  The GEFs -based teleconnectors so-so in support but haven't seen last night's numbers.  Previously, the tele was more -PNA tho

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice morning at Sunrise Service at the picnic tables...

IMG_2942.thumb.JPG.f8ec17d966b20fb927211666e6ebd1bf.JPG

Upon seeing this kind of photographic art that's either meant to hint and inspire winter's eternally alive and strong, or does so by accident

I cannot help but think  ... if it were not for a mere 1,500' -worth of ambient geological elevations, it's that close to not being serviceable as an impression at all. And it strikes how nature is really like that.. You could be abutted right up against the proverbial fire, and not know it.  Tornadoes sweep through neighborhoods blowing houses clean off their foundations, while the next door neighbor's window sill flower pot is left unscathed.  It really seems any system being observed holds out in it's characteristic nature, ...never yielding or giving in to the adjacent realm, however near.  Until the 'boundaries' are crossed ... and then the new paradigm bares little or no resemblance ... Vanquished by time and space, the former only to return by fleeting familiarity.  Kind of like that...

Yet, we draft up boundaries that demarcate and define the world around us. The difference between tropical and extra-tropical cyclones ... say.  When the truth is... those differences are only defined by the separation along a spectrum.  You have hybrids... hybrids of hybrids... and on and so forth.  Maybe the reality is, nature's boundaries are absolute;  the boundaries that man contrive are imperfect -

I like that. 

 

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Im absolutely certain it is going to kill me. How long until october?

Seeing as you asked me and covet my unique perspective on the cosmos... eh hm

You're weather-related entertainment spectrum down there goes like:  convection in spring into early warm season --> heat with a side of heat --> soul crushing boredom --> ice storms ( though a rarefied snow cannot be ruled out...), ...start over again...  with obvious and occasional exceptions to every rule... Basically, take our weather, add 10 F to all climo points, boom - which concomitantly does offer more convection dystopia, but unfortunately ... less snow cocaine to feed neurosis-evident poster mania

  • Haha 1
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Oy man... this satellite cannot be more annoying for those that have/ ... perhaps "had,"  lawn plans surrounding Easter.   Which, is a gamble at this time of year anyway - but...

New Jersey is the big winner!  Their in that dry-slotting with little real CAA and tall mid Auggie equivalent sun sear baking away... Meanwhile, cross about a 2-mile margin of sky-time and it's 50s and drizzly murk with that conveyor now running over top the primary frontal zone that slipped off shore overnight. That puts SNE on the rail-tracks for that moisture freight. 

I suppose it's really no different than the typical reason(s) to hate-on April's in general... This variation of it, however, is one where a gyre's death flops happen to be centered southwest of New England rather than over Nantucket.  So consider ourselves lucky as spring enthusiasts, that we were at least 70-ish the last two days ... could have been worse.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually breaks in overcast here.

we hope... heh.

yeah, some thinning... It's about the best hope for getting real sun 'cause this axis of holiday COC shaft is in no hurry to stop pumping into the area with this stagnant slow scenario -

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This is like the April version of last summer. Wet, damp mank.

Warmest April min of all-time yesterday at CON with a late hour 63F which beat the 61F from, the always questionable yore, 4/24/1886. The next 63F in the books is 5/7. So a wee bit ahead of schedule.

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Lost about 20" in the past 3-4 days... down to 88" on the ground as of this evening.

Average depth for today is 59".

Daily Hydrometeorological Data
National Weather Service Burlington VT
526 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Station            Precip   Temperature   Present         Snow
                   24 Hrs   Max Min Cur   Weather     New Total SWE
...Vermont...
Mount Mansfield     0.00    62  44  56                     88
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