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April 2019 Discussion II


powderfreak
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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There is just water pouring out of the woods.  Heavier rain moved back, I thought this would stay east in NH.  Just a roar outside anywhere you go from water coming out of every little creek.

Same here. Just drove by the ski resort and there is a torrent pouring out of the snowcat entrance to the trails. Looks like the worst of the rain has moved out, we'll see how the river responds. It's just about bankfull now, another 4 feet in rise and I'm toast. 

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7 minutes ago, alex said:

Same here. Just drove by the ski resort and there is a torrent pouring out of the snowcat entrance to the trails. Looks like the worst of the rain has moved out, we'll see how the river responds. It's just about bankfull now, another 4 feet in rise and I'm toast. 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=gyx&gage=betn3

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They had a nice long season this past fall- spring 

It's been a fantastic season. The glades did not close once from Thanksgiving to closing day - that's remarkable for no snowmaking trails with lots of natural obstacles (rocks and logs) that need to be buried for them to be open. As most places, however, the past few weeks have seen a huge dropoff in skiers - even with the great conditions. The few that came up loved it - great conditions and no crowds! But it's hard to justify from a business perspective. Granted, conditions got destroyed this weekend anyways!

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Record high min for CON today is 55F in 1896. So far the low is 64F and the last hourly ob was 70/65. This would break the record for the earliest 60F+ min as well. The earliest 64F+ min is 64F on 5/9/1895. The earliest at the airport site is 65F 5/23/1955.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Record high min for CON today is 55F in 1896. So far the low is 64F and the last hourly ob was 70/65. This would break the record for the earliest 60F+ min as well. The earliest 64F+ min is 64F on 5/9/1895. The earliest at the airport site is 65F 5/23/1955.

I'm surprised they didn't have 60+ minima in the mid-April heat of 1976 and 2002.  NYC had 70+ lows in each of those periods, maybe BOS as well.

Went from 61 to 45 in just a few minutes as I drove north of Augusta. 

Sounds about right - we've been mid 40s all day though the 51 last evening will stand for the high.  Mostly light rain here with a couple brief heavy showers and a rumble (1) of thunder.

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'm surprised they didn't have 60+ minima in the mid-April heat of 1976 and 2002.  NYC had 70+ lows in each of those periods, maybe BOS as well.

Went from 61 to 45 in just a few minutes as I drove north of Augusta. 

Sounds about right - we've been mid 40s all day though the 51 last evening will stand for the high.  Mostly light rain here with a couple brief heavy showers and a rumble (1) of thunder.

Wasn't even close. Dry heat.

Apr 1976
4/17 90/49
4/18 92/48
4/19 95/46

Apr 2002
4/16 88/45
4/17 94/51
4/18 89/47

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3 hours ago, alex said:

Same here. Just drove by the ski resort and there is a torrent pouring out of the snowcat entrance to the trails. Looks like the worst of the rain has moved out, we'll see how the river responds. It's just about bankfull now, another 4 feet in rise and I'm toast. 

Looks like it's just about cresting at Bethlehem now, so I'd say the worst is over.

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Sonoran release in the D6-10 Euro ... Pretty classic anatomy actually ...

If that happened, ... before any heat ever got here that would be a long track finger nail of Satan tornado day at the end of the run -

The model had something like this suggested two days ago if/when extrapolating.. It dropped it, but apparently said extrapolation has now come into the extended range bully ...

I don't really trust it ...for the obvious, but also because the GFS has been sea-sawing between an eastern ridge and trough every other run too...  Some ridging in the east may be favored, however, given the GEFs tele spread. 

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like it's just about cresting at Bethlehem now, so I'd say the worst is over.

Yes. I’ve been watching the river go over its banks at my property, actually very interesting to watch. Doesn’t seem to be rising anymore. Most sections are right at the top of the bank, which is generally a 6 foot or so cliff. The beach areas are of course completely unreachable. Gave me a better sense of where the river breaches. Another 2 feet or so and it would be at the house. 

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13 minutes ago, alex said:

Yes. I’ve been watching the river go over its banks at my property, actually very interesting to watch. Doesn’t seem to be rising anymore. Most sections are right at the top of the bank, which is generally a 6 foot or so cliff. The beach areas are of course completely unreachable. Gave me a better sense of where the river breaches. Another 2 feet or so and it would be at the house. 

Bethlehem got to 11.4' back in October 2017, 8' now. So 10-11' is not good for you.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Bethlehem got to 11.4' back in October 2017, 8' now. So 10-11' is not good for you.

Exactly my thinking. It’s at about 8 feet today, and there was anywhere between a foot and 3 feet water in my yard in 2017. Above 10 ft is when trouble starts. I’ve started flood proofing everything - all generators are now raised, and my new house that I’m building is about 2 feet higher than the water line from that flood. Still nerve wrecking when it happens though. 

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A couple of pictures. First one is one of our trails. I now that with a John Deere lol. You can see the debris from the old flood. To the right it’s normally a 5-6 foot bank. The area below is right by where I tap the maples; the river had just breached here so I could literally see the water pouring in. 

The great news - almost completely snow free now! 

AC64E9A8-484B-44C2-91A0-C63E6293398A.jpeg

DBBB05CB-5471-453C-8F45-A130AD38E4BE.jpeg

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