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April 2019 Discussion II


powderfreak
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

We are frost free until late October here. We plant, but the problem is temps in general can still be cool. So if one does a garden I’d wait a couple of weeks.

I'll get the cold season plants out there soon like kale and cabbage, but my warm season stuff is staying under the grow lights awhile longer. Monday morning could be chilly if we rad a bit.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Forsythia are past peak here.  Losing flowers.  Same with flowering pears.  Maples are past bud stage and are in leaf out process.

It's weird up here with the rapid warming of the soils. We actually have summer weeds coming up with the cold season grass and the maples are already starting to leaf out too. I can't really recall seeing my red maples leafing out with the forsythia blooming. his rain is hurting my american chestnut trees though. It'll be a miracle if they avoid the blight and/or don't rot out.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's weird up here with the rapid warming of the soils. We actually have summer weeds coming up with the cold season grass and the maples are already starting to leaf out too. I can't really recall seeing my red maples leafing out with the forsythia blooming. his rain is hurting my american chestnut trees though. It'll be a miracle if they avoid the blight and/or don't rot out.

My lawn took a big hit last night with clay overwash off our hill. Grass looks like what you see in a tidal area washout lol Geezuz good thing I am not OCD with grass. Oh well eventually it will dry out. I wouldn't ever plant non hardy frost freeze plants until after Mid May here. One night of rad cooling and thats money down the drain. Summer is plenty long enough. Mint is up, Hostas broke through this week along with morning glories.  Maples are budded here, leafed out in town.  Beech,Ash, cottonwood is shedding and Oaks have buds but still stick season here until you get in the valley and SCT

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11 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Here's our coverage from this afternoon. I was actually getting ready to cut-in for the hail when then issued the TOR.

Definitely wasn't expecting that and wasn't worried about the tornado threat given the stable surface layer and the really crappy low level couplet (besides some side lobe contamination).

 

 

Ryan giving a good honest opinion and the Mets here had everyone taking cover. 

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It's an interestingly variable fauna/green-up sequencing this particular go of it.  I have shrubs that are a solid couple of weeks or more late ... including forsythias, while the broad leaf sugar maples are cracking buds and maybe a 1/3rd flower protrusion ... That's about right on time for the ten-year average down here along Rt 2.  Yet, the red maples really only sheen over in spring rust last week,  perhaps ten days behind schedule.    Meanwhile, my eager silver maple, which leafs early ( and is also usually the last to let go in the autumn) is very stunted.  

****

D8 through 10 :   ... there's a long-term sort of base-line probability for snow in May's.  It's obviously going to be unevenly distributed around latitude and/or variation in altitude...etc... Excluding those local studies and just considering the normalization for a moment, those probabilities also vary from May 1 being > than May 30 of course too. 

I'm not sure what any hypothetical, regionally normalized percentage layout exactly looks like, but... I imagine its on the order of a 15 or 20% chance any given spring of observing a late snow before May 10... perhaps declining to 10 % by the 20th... down to virtually 0% by the 30th, if just looking at 100 years, tallying up the occurrences, then dividing by n-years to provide the linear average for those 10 day intervals.

15% for the first 10 days may arguably seem high to some people; I don't know how folks conceptualize numbers but 15 is low ( firstly ). But, since the year 2000 ... I have seen snow inordinately often compared to the first half of my own existence. At least in the air 1/3!  ... if not silvery car top slush or even more in grass. Something has changed or is changing things, whether for better, worse, all or some, aside.

Whether these occurrences are caused by a greater scaled, pan-systemic change, or perhaps are mere perturbations local to our hemispheric scope/scale aside, we're seeing an up-tick in the late snow occurrence phenomenon... (I've also noticed this in Octobers, as well).  It does bring into some question the total usefulness of 'linear averages' ...when climate is in a state of flux. hm.

In any case, having to include the last 19 years of data, does tend to skew said averages higher because seeing snow in May some 6 of those years is bigger than the previous 50 year mean.

The reason why I'm wading the reader through this mire of verbs and nouns and grammar during an era when Tweeting has twitted down people's will to really do so ... is because between D7 and 11 in there, ... probably adds a few percents over said hypothetical base-line.  But, I could have just said that - agreed.. However, the other purpose to this is the implicit idea that "something has changed," and well.. here we are again with this book-end (whether spring or fall), either too late or too early snow chance that seems to be out there, in the charts, as however > than the mean probability. It's really just weird.  One almost can looking forward to 'not having to wait much longer' in late August, ...if only half sarcasm.  And April showers? no longer should automatically imply May flowers...as these late cool and white snaps do the darling buds of may a distinct disservice.

This -NAO appears to mean business.  It's also encompassing ( blocking/influentially...) more so in the western limb across present modeling... And with the flow relaxed overall ..that sets up that unique 'cold packet' transport plausibility, where smaller masses can be injected in and not homogenized by some high velocity maelstrom.  It's basically powered fluke, just add water, incarnate. 

So, we'll see ... This has to inherently be very low probability in general ... it's just that relative to other May 1 through 10's ... that in-general chance would appear higher than base-line.  

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

It's weird up here with the rapid warming of the soils. We actually have summer weeds coming up with the cold season grass and the maples are already starting to leaf out too. I can't really recall seeing my red maples leafing out with the forsythia blooming. his rain is hurting my american chestnut trees though. It'll be a miracle if they avoid the blight and/or don't rot out.

Maples are coming out in full force--I'd say over half have at least budded.  I wish the red maple we have would bud.  Nada so far.

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

lol...right? The forsythia just barely bloomed up here. Good luck with the marigolds.

Was at Home Depot in Tilton yesterday.  Lots of annuals.  Good marketing.  Get them out early, let people think they can plant and then once the frost kills them rinse and repeat.  Lots of extra $$.  Planting in Central NH at the end of April for sensitive plants.  Not a good idea

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

What am I looking at here? Do you let gypsies lay eggs and hatch on your granite countertops?

It’s one of their nests from last spring . It’s on the foundation up close to where the shingles begin. I’ve been checking many of their nests that I’ve spotted around the yard. They can hold up to 500 gypsies each 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s one of their nests from last spring . It’s on the foundation up close to where the shingles begin. I’ve been checking many of their nests that I’ve spotted around the yard. They can hold up to 500 gypsies each 

Burn 'em. Burn 'em all.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s one of their nests from last spring . It’s on the foundation up close to where the shingles begin. I’ve been checking many of their nests that I’ve spotted around the yard. They can hold up to 500 gypsies each 

Saw one here about a week ago

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