April 17-18 Severe Weather

[MNstorms]

First severe weather of the season for the upper midwest.

[Jackstraw]

Once again, timing, timing, timing for us in central IN.  Par for the course, maybe we can pull a Tiger 

[madwx]

HRRR wants to get a few fiesty thunderstorms up into S WI right along the warm front tomorrow.

[Indystorm]

Bad time to have the Quad Cities radar down due to a problem.

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like a highly conditional threat across NE. IA/S. WI/N. IL this afternoon and evening int the vicinity of the warm front and triple point.

The big issue looks to be a strong cap in place, and fairly weak forcing that might not be enough to overcome the capping.

If we can get activity to go though, there's definitely a tor risk given the environment in place.

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Bad time to have the Quad Cities radar down due to a problem.

Bad timing for us here in central IN once again with night time passing of the best dynamics..  Although 12Z HRRR Hodo's showing marginal Tor risk in west central IN early morning.

[Chicago Storm]

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a highly conditional threat across NE. IA/S. WI/N. IL this afternoon and evening int the vicinity of the warm front and triple point.

The big issue looks to be a strong cap in place, and fairly weak forcing that might not be enough to overcome the capping.

If we can get activity to go though, there's definitely a tor risk given the environment in place.

Didn't happen, and not too surprising.

[Jackstraw]

Any shot we would've had would've been with the cold front and since its coming through in the wee hours of the morning not much of a chance of anything significant.  Really need some decent daytime heating/good timing or some anomalistic kinematic forcing with these early Spring systems to throw some atmospheric fat lighter in and get it started.  I'd like a shot to break daytime cap over in these parts but with stagnated cirro-stratus moisture over a meager boundary layer until nightfall we're proverbially screwed with the current pattern.  Late March/April sun angle is a 2 edged sword  The timing of these systems has been crazy clockwork lately to the downside, at least around here.  

[Moosey2323]

Anybody have any thoughts on this small area of 1000+ J/kg of CAPE and 1-2 STP in Southeast Michigan tomorrow? I saw it on the 18z HRRR, and now it's appearing again in the 0z HRRR. The NAM doesn't show anything quite as pronounced as the HRRR.

[cyclone77]

Nice little hail core just went through and dropped a period of peas and a few marbles.  Lots of vivid lightning, and picked up a quick 0.20" of rain.  

[Jackstraw]

45 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

Anybody have any thoughts on this small area of 1000+ J/kg of CAPE and 1-2 STP in Southeast Michigan tomorrow? I saw it on the 18z HRRR, and now it's appearing again in the 0z HRRR. The NAM doesn't show anything quite as pronounced as the HRRR.

HRRR has been on its own bringing some instability into northern IN and SEMI late morning/early afternoon, even down into west central IN early morning tomorrow.  Looks like it hangs the warm front just south of Lake Erie but still lets it pivot up the west side with some short term decent daytime heating reflected in surface LI's.  It's kinda by itself model wise not much to hang your hat on but a better hat rack than I have lol.  I've always wondered if a warm front gets hung up by a cold lake on one end but can continue unimpeded like around the west end of Erie if that couldn't enhance that small area of the warm front giving it additional lift over the cooler lake air. Just my arm chair take.

[geddyweather]

So what I believe to be a miniscule 500mb shortwave or perturbation helped fire off a cluster of showers and storms along the warm front here in NWO last night. No severe of any kind but it did produce some of the most intense lightning I have ever seen locally. Constant barrage of CGs and crawlers. Plus on the backside, the moon came out and created probably the strangest atmosphere and lighting I have ever shot storms in. Here is one of many:

[HighTechEE]

50 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

So what I believe to be a miniscule 500mb shortwave or perturbation helped fire off a cluster of showers and storms along the warm front here in NWO last night. No severe of any kind but it did produce some of the most intense lightning I have ever seen locally. Constant barrage of CGs and crawlers. Plus on the backside, the moon came out and created probably the strangest atmosphere and lighting I have ever shot storms in. Here is one of many:

 

That looks cool, we had a similar situation here in the Dayton area back in April of 2014 and a big blast of lightning hit a barn at a country club 1 mile east of me and burnt it down (along with all the golf carts and the members clubs stored in it!).

[dayton1996]

Hey HighTechEE,

During that same event, my neighbor's home, just diagonally across from me, lost his home in the fire that resulted from a viscous lightning strike.  Yikes