Pittsburgh PA Area Spring and Summer 2019

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

The warm tongue has officially abated this morning! 

[PghPirates27]

wooo hooo!!!!! About time!

[PghPirates27]

1.7 inches of rain on my dad's weather station in Gibsonia PA

[CoraopolisWx]

4 hours ago, PghPirates27 said:

1.7 inches of rain on my dad's weather station in Gibsonia PA

The PWS near me has about the same since midnight.

Hopefully we get something close to this snowfall wise, come this winter.

 

[PghPirates27]

so 1"-2" of rain Wed/Thurs. What would that translate to snow? is it too early to start hoping for some flakes?

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said:

so 1"-2" of rain Wed/Thurs. What would that translate to snow? is it too early to start hoping for some flakes?

My forecast has rain changing to snow tomorrow night-I’m sure just some wet flakes-however it’s a start

[jwilson]

8 hours ago, PghPirates27 said:

so 1"-2" of rain Wed/Thurs. What would that translate to snow? is it too early to start hoping for some flakes?

Well, at this time of year, probably not much (super low ratios).  5-10" maybe?  If we can get this into some cold in January, perhaps a nice foot or two.

[Mailman]

Mesoscale Discussion 2128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina...northeastern
   Tennessee...southwestern Virginia...far eastern Kentucky...West
   Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311512Z - 311715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A more substantial increase in potential for severe wind
   gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes, is expected with a developing
   line of storms during the 1-3 PM EDT time frame.  One or more
   watches probably will be needed within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Although mid/upper-level lapse rates across much of the
   region are more or less moist adiabatic, latest objective analysis
   suggests that boundary layer warming and moistening are contributing
   to at least weak destabilization along the western slopes of the
   Allegheny Mountains.  Mixed-layer CAPE may not become much more than
   roughly 500 J/kg, but this is expected to occur in the presence of
   strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, as deepening of
   the surface cyclone (now centered near Columbus OH) proceeds more
   rapidly through early to mid afternoon.

   Model forecast soundings indicate south to southwesterly flow
   intensifying to 50-70+ kt, just off the surface through around 500
   mb, as the strengthening surface cold front advances toward the
   Alleghenies.  This is expected to coincide with increasing lift
   along/ahead of the cold front, aided by forcing for upward vertical
   motion ahead of a vigorous short wave trough gradually pivoting east
   of the the Mississippi Valley, to support an intensifying line of
   thunderstorms.  

   It is possible that this may be gradually underway across parts of
   northeastern Tennessee through eastern Kentucky and southeastern
   Ohio, but a more notable increase/intensification seems more likely
   during the 17-19Z time frame, before gradually spreading eastward
   into/through the Appalachians.

   As convection intensifies, downward momentum transport in downdrafts
   will contribute to increasing potential for damaging convective
   surface gusts.  Large low-level hodographs could also support
   supercell structures along and perhaps just ahead of the developing
   line of storms, with a risk for tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Probably about time to start a new Winter thread, things starting to  look interesting for early Nov, maybe some early tracking. Who has the lucky hand for starting a new thread? 

[meatwad]