CranberryWX Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 SPC expanded the Enhanced area to cover most of Western PA. If we get some sun it's game on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Looks like we will get at least some destabilization once the warm front goes through, like you said if we get any partial sun things could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 I really hope not. I hate severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 KPIT is doing a special balloon launch this afternoon when the dry air moves in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 SPC says tornado watch likely for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Eastern ohio...Western Pennsylvania...and far southwest New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 142157Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon across western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York. DISCUSSION...A line of storms have developed along a pre-frontal trough across Ohio ahead of a 990mb surface low analyzed between Columbus and Akron. The strongest storms may be producing damaging winds at this time. A 20Z PIT sounding is a good proximity sounding for the environment ahead of these storms. Buoyancy is quite weak with MLCAPE only around 200 J/kg substituting current surface observations into the 20Z sounding. Clearing ahead of these storms may allow temperatures to warm slightly during the next hour, but as the boundary layer deepens, surface dewpoints may fall a few degrees due to mixing which would keep buoyancy weak into the evening. However, despite this meager instability, the wind profile remains very supportive of all severe weather hazards with effective shear around 70 knots and 0 to 1 km SRH over 500 m2/s2. This threat will likely be maximized near the warm front in northern Pennsylvania and southern New York where backed surface flow, and higher dewpoints are expected to remain. South of the Pennsylvania border, dewpoints have mixed into the mid 50s which has limited instability to less than 100 J/kg which has greatly reduced the severe threat. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/14/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Here in Hopewell/Aliquippa it got gusty for a few minutes, but nothing to write home about. Thunder and lightning were also conspicuous by their absence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Couple more chances for severe upcoming, but thus far this year there hasn't been much locally. I think June is our peak season, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Enhanced risk tomorrow. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Watch up until midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019 Areas affected...western NY...western PA...far eastern OH...northern WV and western MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251653Z - 251900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms, though hail is also possible. A watch may be needed in the next few hours across this region. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms were developing early this afternoon on the nose of eastward surging boundary layer moisture from northwest PA/eastern OH into WV. A warm front was lifting northeast across NY/PA/VA just ahead of this convection. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will spread eastward with time today and convection should increase in coverage and intensity as continued strong heating and destabilization occurs in strong deep layer west/southwesterly flow. Forecast RAP soundings indicated steepening low level lapse rates, with 30-40 kt southwest winds around 760-700 mb at the top of the mixed boundary layer, suggesting strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. While midlevel lapse rates are unimpressive, around 6.5-7 C/km at best, vertical shear will support rotating updrafts and a few supercell structures are possible. This will bring an attendant risk for severe hail with the strongest storms. While forecast LCLs are relatively high at around 3kft, any storm that interacts with the warm front or through favorable cell/outflow interactions, could produce a tornado or two given modestly favorable low level hodographs and effective SRH around 150-200 m2/s2. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed in the next few hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Southeast Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over eastern Ohio, and are expected to spread eastward across the watch area through the late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the main threat, along with a risk of some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Bradford PA to 60 miles south southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning OHC019-029-067-081-PAC003-007-019-073-125-WVC009-029-252345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0055.190525T2255Z-190525T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 655 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Harrison County in east central Ohio... Jefferson County in east central Ohio... Southeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio... Southeastern Carroll County in east central Ohio... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Southwestern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania... Southwestern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Northwestern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Brooke County in northern West Virginia... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 654 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lisbon to 8 miles south of Carrollton, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Cranberry... Moon Township... Weirton... Steubenville... Butler... Franklin Park... East Liverpool... Aliquippa... Beaver Falls... Monaca... East Palestine... Wellsville... This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 9 and 32. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 74 and 91. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 31 and 55. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4085 8069 4085 7982 4031 8041 4040 8126 TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 269DEG 44KT 4080 8070 4046 8113 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 735 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 PAC003-007-019-125-252345- /O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-190525T2345Z/ Washington PA-Beaver PA-Butler PA-Allegheny PA- 735 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN BEAVER...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTIES... At 735 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Zelienople to near Toronto, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. Locations impacted include... Cranberry... Moon Township... Butler... Franklin Park... Aliquippa... Monaca... Economy... Ambridge... Wexford... Homeacre-Lyndora... Baden... Meridian... This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 21 and 32. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 71, and between mile markers 74 and 90. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 40 and 55. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4085 7982 4038 8033 4046 8052 4050 8052 4085 8009 TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 269DEG 44KT 4080 8010 4046 8053 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 Guessing by the number of posts everybody faired about the same as me this evening. Just a brief moderate shower at my parents house in the west end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 Just had 45-50 mph gusts with this line that just moved through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Tomorrow could be active. SPC has us in the Enhanced area National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 && . SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Latest guidance has trended up CAPE values during the afternoon and early evening with HREF mean values over 3000 J/kg across the northern half of the forecast area by mid/late afternoon and slightly lower values to the south. Shear profiles are favorable for organized severe convection...as bowing lines and/or supercells. Damaging wind and hail are the primary threats with dry mid-level air yielding high DCAPE values and sufficient instability from -10C to -20C. Hodographs support tornadic storms as well...with more favorable LCLs across northern zones where ll moisture is expected to pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 I’m listening to a police scanner out of Montgomery Ohio. Lots of damage from a massive tornado that just went north of Dayton. May be many injuries and fatalities. Very scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 8 hours ago, north pgh said: I’m listening to a police scanner out of Montgomery Ohio. Lots of damage from a massive tornado that just went north of Dayton. May be many injuries and fatalities. Very scary. These Tornadoes that hit overnight are really rough, most people are asleep and get caught totally off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Appears we'll have clearing this morning resulting in priming up the atmosphere for us this afternoon. Interesting that NWS discussion mentions that convection movement will be North to South this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Tornado Watch likely in next couple hours according to latest Meso discussion from SPC. ... ...Tornadoes are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast soundings.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 281702Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and will likely become severe. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level westerly flow of 50-70 knots is stretching across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A shortwave trough embedded within this zonal flow currently entering the Great Lakes region will move eastward throughout the day helping to provide forcing for ascent and strengthen deep layer shear. A surface low is located just east-southeast of Buffalo, NY with a warm front stretching to the southeast through northeast PA and central NJ. This warm front should lift east-northeast with the surface low forecast to track generally eastward. The Cu field is becoming increasingly agitated within the warm sector and storms are likely to develop in the next couple of hours. Storms are likely to develop across west/central PA and move east-southeast during the afternoon and evening into portions of NJ/MD/DE/southern NY. Supercell development is likely and few storms may remain discrete. Low-level veering is better to south/east across the region, but flow/shear is stronger farther to the north. Large hail is possible given forecast MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-50 knots. Additionally, strong synoptic winds and steepening low-level lapse rates, especially where strong insolation occurs, will increase the severe wind threat. Tornadoes are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast soundings. ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/28/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Extreme east central Ohio Pennsylvania The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey as the low levels destabilize. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 272...WW 273... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019 TORNADO WATCH 274 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019 TORNADO WATCH 274 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT for our area Peak climo period, along with favorable WNW flow should yield widespread results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Golf ball size hail reported in Merced Countyj Edit to add my brother said he wasn't getting golf ball size hail in Armstrong county at 3:08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Tornado Warning Tornado Warning PAC005-063-281945- /O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0011.190528T1921Z-190528T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 321 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... * Until 345 PM EDT.. * At 320 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles southeast of Ford City, or 11 miles southeast of Kittanning, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Indiana and Homer City around 345 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Chevy Chase Heights, Armagh, Lucerne Mines, Creekside, Atwood, Elderton, Shelocta, Clymer, Yellow Creek State Park and Brush Vly. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4050 7891 4041 7897 4068 7947 4082 7938 4066 7883 TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 302DEG 29KT 4071 7936 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.75IN $$ 07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 WTAE reporting circulation going right over Indiana, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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