April 17-18 Severe Weather

[1900hurricane]

Anyone know if NWS LIX is doing an 18Z sounding today?

[1900hurricane]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1118950231486472193

[janetjanet998]

211 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR HINDS AND  
NORTH CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTIES...  
          
AT 211 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAYMOND, OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
CLINTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

[janetjanet998]

Jackson area

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
224 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019  
  
MSC049-181945-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190418T1945Z/  
HINDS MS-  
224 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL  
HINDS COUNTY...  
      
AT 224 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RAYMOND, OR NEAR  
CLINTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE 

[janetjanet998]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0222 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019  
  
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST  
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERAL TORNADOES (A FEW SIGNIFICANT) AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD  
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  
   
..LA/MS/AL  
  
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME BETTER  
ORGANIZED FROM SOUTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL MS AS THE LARGE-SCALE  
PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FAVORABLY. CURRENTLY, A BATCH OF WARM  
ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND  
SOUTHERN MS, INTERSECTING THE MAIN LINE WEST OF JACKSON, MS. THESE  
STORMS ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E FROM  
THE SOUTH, AND IN A REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.   
THE DGX VWP SHOWS INCREASING SRH AHEAD OF THE LINE. LARGE SCALE  
LIFT, MOISTURE CONTENT AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF MS, SOUTHEAST LA, AND INTO WESTERN AL LATER TODAY. THEREFORE, A  
THREAT OF QLCS-TYPE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES IS LIKELY TO  
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
  

[mob1]

Multiple areas of embedded rotation in the line, though nothing overly impressive at the moment. 

[Araqiel]

Yeah that PDS warning went away pretty fast and the CC drop was minimal at best - haven't seen much of a sustained tight couplet on anything yet tbh, just the MCV-associated rotations.

 

And right as I say that the one SW of Puckett tightens up.

[mob1]

Confirmed tornado with this one 

[Araqiel]

???

 

[Araqiel]

From MCD #390: "Observational trends in KDGX and KLIX VAD profiles have shown a large increase in low level hodograph curvature and SRH."

Just as model soundings were showing earlier, then. That 09Z HRRR UH isn't looking too shabby in relation to the current warned storms over MS either.

[Araqiel]

Longer loop of that weird northward-jogging Puckett rotation - has now merged into a much larger circulation, somebody please school me on wtf is going on here.

[janetjanet998]

many confirmed tornadoes today  in the warning text

[janetjanet998]

0331 PM     TORNADO          1 NNE MORTON            32.37N 89.65W  
04/18/2019                   SCOTT              MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL    
  
            HOMES DESTROYED IN NORTH PART OF MORTON, MS.

[Araqiel]

The MCV that tracked across central MS in the last couple of hours formed right along the boundary in the image I posted earlier (and below, reaching from around the LA/MS border near Natchez MS, NE to where the MCV is now, in slightly wavy form at the time). GOES-16 is love.

[JMT417]

Can someone please explain how this is even possible? I know there is likely a reasonable explanation, but I don't know what it is.

[Araqiel]

3 hours ago, JMT417 said:

Can someone please explain how this is even possible? I know there is likely a reasonable explanation, but I don't know what it is.

That must be an error I'd have thought; you can get some odd polygons on CWA boundaries (that explains the top-right corner on this one) but this doesn't even fit a county outline.

[JMT417]

10 hours ago, Araqiel said:

That must be an error I'd have thought; you can get some odd polygons on CWA boundaries (that explains the top-right corner on this one) but this doesn't even fit a county outline.

My only other thought was that there may have been a concurrent tornado warning for the non-shaded area in the middle