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April 17-18 Severe Weather


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57 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Cumulus field definitely developing in eastern Texas now.

Not quite sure what you're referring to.

HRRR has really backed off of convective development in eastern Texas *early this evening, which I would expect given the persistent cloud cover, lower cape, and higher CIN.

 

*Edited... still has the line of storms sweeping through late.

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like a STW will be coming soon by 00z for N TX and S OK per MCD... maybe a TW... but I'd lean STW

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for central TX to extreme south central OK. Mentions the possibility of a tornado or two near the Red River.

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At the rate things have been going it's questionable whether the hail threat even pans out
There's already been golf ball size hail in a couple of storms. Still plenty of time.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

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It looks pretty minor on radar right now, but I wonder about that little area of precipitation around Hico and Meridian right now, though it looks like it is struggling.  If it can initiate into something bigger, on the track the storms seem to be taking, it could be a threat to DFW later on.  Otherwise, it looks like DFW may have to wait for the storms that are currently down around Brownwood, unless something else tries to fire up.  I've also noticed light radar returns over Parker County and have been wondering if they represent some sort of wind shift or boundary; there also seems to be some sort of boundary about midway between Breckenridge and Mineral Wells.

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4 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Not quite sure what you're referring to.

HRRR has really backed off of convective development in eastern Texas *early this evening, which I would expect given the persistent cloud cover, lower cape, and higher CIN.

 

*Edited... still has the line of storms sweeping through late.

A line tried over western NE TX. We will likely have to wait on the main line after midnight.

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1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said:

That said, I believe those storms may have a northeasterly motion, so DFW may indeed get hit by storms.

Northern suburbs look like they might bear the brunt. Storms heading into the southern half of the metroplex are substantially weaker

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Storms are intense along along and south of I-20 in E TX. So far just heavy rain in Hideaway but storm is starting to bow out towards Tyler with some notches starting to form. Down in the Palestine, Jacksonville and Nacogdoches corridor it is already severe warned. This includes the Alto area that saw 3 tornadoes on Sat.

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5 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Storms are intense along along and south of I-20 in E TX. So far just heavy rain in Hideaway but storm is starting to bow out towards Tyler with some notches starting to form. Down in the Palestine, Jacksonville and Nacogdoches corridor it is already severe warned. This includes the Alto area that saw 3 tornadoes on Sat.

Parents said those storms last night were worse than any they saw last weekend. I find that interesting. 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Parents said those storms last night were worse than any they saw last weekend. I find that interesting. 

Yep, lots of closings around Palestine because of power outages. Damage seems to primarily be tree damage with a large area of 50 mph to even 70 mph gusts and multiple inches of rain Sat and again last night. I have not heard of much hail damage and despite areas of broad rotation I do not believe there were any tornadoes.

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HRRR has been semi-consistently painting out this long UH track in central LA this morning, looks like a nice boundary setting up right through there now - easiest to spot on the meso sector loop. GOES-16 image is marginally too big to upload so linked instead. Apologies again if this is the wrong forum, SE only seems interested in NC for some reason.

 

GOES-16 Visible

 

 

J7nrC9j.png

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1 hour ago, Araqiel said:

HRRR has been semi-consistently painting out this long UH track in central LA this morning, looks like a nice boundary setting up right through there now - easiest to spot on the meso sector loop. GOES-16 image is marginally too big to upload so linked instead. Apologies again if this is the wrong forum, SE only seems interested in NC for some reason.

As a note there are other forums in the Houston, Louisiana (gulf mostly) and Alabama areas that are very active for those regions. It has been sadly typical that those areas do not tend to post in the SE forum here but migrate more to those other more regional weather forums. 

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