NTXYankee Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 One thing I noticed on the 23z HRRR is the low is more back to the Indiana and Illinois border now as opposed to earlier today putting much more of Indiana in the warm sector at 17z tomorrow. Not sure if this is a fluke or perhaps due to less intense convection down south than modeled that it allows the low to move more nw. I’m horrible at this analyzing but found it curious. Edit. 0z appears to be doing the same thing. This would have an impact with both the snow and severe side of this storm if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Wetbulb zero levels on the 00z DVN and ILX soundings were around 2500 and 3200 feet respectively. Also have quite a spread in current temps/dews. Temps should drop fairly rapidly later with evap cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Setting the stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Recent HRRR runs have strengthened the low. The latest run has it down to 989 mb in central Indiana. The Euro had the right idea early on, but it blew the nw track forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Here's an illustration of the warm layer aloft So if you're near the edge, hope for heavy/convective type precip to try to beat back the warming to some extent. We all know how this goes though, more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Planning to get a good rest tonight and then an early a.m. drive to MKE to grab the sleds. Won't be getting up at 3:45 or 4 a.m. EST like Tiger said he would for his 9:30 a.m. tee time but figure on the road by 5:30 as snow just getting started and then back by 8 or so with fingers crossed for a strike in progress across mby.I rode fresh powder in early April in UP maybe ten years ago after grooming was done for season. Tomorrow would be latest ever for us and to potentially have it local on the still open no-till bean fields would be fantastic.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 HRRR with the snowiest run yet. Obviously going to be a bit overdone, but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 00z Hi-Res NAM and RAP starting to look a little more juicy again for areas back to the southwest too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: HRRR with the snowiest run yet. Obviously going to be a bit overdone, but still... . Still snowing at end of run. Would not be surprised to see a localized 6+ if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 MLI needs 8.9" to break the seasonal record of 69.7". They won't reach that, but if the 00z models are correct they could stat pad a few inches onto the existing 60.8". It was 54 today here, with full sun, so the ground will definitely be fighting off whatever accumulates from underneath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Pad dem stats! lol We still have all of May Radar back in Oklahoma and Missouri looking nice this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MLI needs 8.9" to break the seasonal record of 69.7". They won't reach that, but if the 00z models are correct they could stat pad a few inches onto the existing 60.8". It was 54 today here, with full sun, so the ground will definitely be fighting off whatever accumulates from underneath. MLI has not been below freezing at all since April 3. ORD not since April 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Wonder if LOT will issue any headlines overnight. If hi-res models are to be believed, some areas could see higher end totals. Don’t think 6+ will pan out, but who knows. Even 2-4” with the rates the hrrr/rap is showing would cause road conditions to deteriorate pretty quickly, even with temps a bit above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Wonder if LOT will issue any headlines overnight. If hi-res models are to be believed, some areas could see higher end totals. Don’t think 6+ will pan out, but who knows. Even 2-4” with the rates the hrrr/rap is showing would cause road conditions to deteriorate pretty quickly, even with temps a bit above freezing. I think one would be more likely if it were a weekday. May get a last minute one anyway though. It has hardly snowed for 2 months and people may have forgotten how to drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 I’m 7 miles west of Milwaukee in Wauwatosa where it’s 37 degrees. When I left Atlanta this morning it was 70. Feeling good about 1-3 inches here. Short-range guidance is pretty encouraging. Even if it struggles to accumulate I think daytime snow is prettier anyways. Maybe we’ll get a surprise. Think I’ve only seen 6”+ maybe twice? Good luck everybody from a southerner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: For Chicago, there have only been 5 instances of not having a 1" calendar day snow in March followed by a 1" calendar day snow in April. Here are the dates/amounts of the last Jan/Feb 1" snow and the dates/amounts of the April 1" or greater snow that broke each streak. How about that stretch in 1910. 2/15/1903: 4.7" ------> 4/3/1903: 2.6" 1/14/1910: 1.6" ------> 4/23/1910: 2.1" 2/26/1936: 1.3" ------> 4/1/1936: 2.1" 2/18/2000: 11.1" ------> 4/7/2000: 1.6" 2/25/2007: 2.3" ------> 4/11/2007: 3.0" 2/18/2019: 1.8" ------> 4/14/2019: ??? Corrected a mistake with 1936... had the wrong date. Btw, in regards to the 2.6" on 4/3/1903... it was 77 degrees the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 The high-res guidance keeps waffling back and forth on the western edge of things. One run shows 0.6-0.8" here, the next run shows a few tenths. The GFS shows a trace. 6hrs from the event and I still have no idea what to expect lol. No matter what happens it's been pretty interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Looking at obs in central IL, they are dropping about 3 degrees within the first half hour or so after precip onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Some models like the HRRR and NAM are too slow with the northward progression of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Based on soundings, TSSN is a real possibility with this event as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 My suggestion today is to chuck LOT's forecast and read the discussion. Forecast in no way can depict the range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Snow/graupel has began with a bang, already accumulating on most surfaces. Swirling around on roads already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Snow/graupel has began with a bang, already accumulating on most surfaces. Swirling around on roads already Nice fat flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 starting to get real.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 TSSN in C IL within the past hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 KPIA 141254Z 01007G17KT 1/4SM R04/4500VP6000FT +SN FG VV004 01/00 A2975 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E SLP078 P0005 T00060000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 WBBM traffic report says numerous spinouts and cars in ditches. So either hype machine or some credence and real impacts on roads already.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Absolutely ripping right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Hail report down by IKK.Lot of convection working into this main band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Looks like a shutout here. Gonna blast east into the back edge of the snow and say my farewell to snow for the season. Should only be about a 30 minute drive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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