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April 13th-14th Severe Threat


andyhb
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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Lots of clearing along the MS river.  West of Alexandria has been cloudy all day. The crapvaction line looks more discrete than it did a few hours ago so it may produce eventually, especially near the MS river.

Yea I'm thinking this may set up more east than originally thought due to training crapvection further west

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Just goes to show you even with extreme parameters in place, storm mode is crucial. Sfc low definitely ended up further south than models had. Persistent morning convection really held up wf. Minimal capping allowed storms to keep ongoing all day. Really needed a stronger EML to build in ahead of main wave. This was my biggest fear with this setup. Too many storms

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Incredible how messy things have stayed. Had a moment there where it looked like things might kick off, but that’s passed for now. 

Big things could still happen later, but I don’t think many would have expected one warning in the moderate risk area at peak hours, even three hours ago.

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