wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Tornadic cells aiming for the general vicinity of Nacogdoches TX......34,000 pop Radar hole doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Likely TDS now NE of Crockett with an extremely strong meso aloft. Had 125 kts inbound a scan ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Likely TDS now NE of Crockett with an extremely strong meso aloft. Had 125 kts inbound a scan ago. I honestly think that tornado has been on the ground for a while now, just in bad radar area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Looks like some cells just popped west of LCH... evolution of those will likely give a hint as to how the day will go over the MDT risk area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I wouldn't be surprised if we got a long lead-time, long duration PDS watch across the moderate risk area soon. The parameters in place are already INSANE across NE TX and LA. Mesoscale analysis on the SPC page is showing 50-60kt bulk shear, 3,000-4,000 CAPE, with effective helicity values of 400-600 across most of the open warm sector. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 A picture of the Franklin tornado. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 The only things that stand out as keeping this from a potential high risk IMO is: 1) too many storms across the warm sector in LA. We're definitely going to see a few intense supercells, but those unorganized storms going up in LA could keep a lid on the number of storms that could become discrete or semi discrete. 2) How far north the warm front goes. The parameters near and south of the warm front are very high end, but to get high risk coverage, it will need to move a quite a bit further north from where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 People in Alto look to be in the path again after damaging storm earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Debris signature heading into Alto, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Low and mid level helicity is off the charts in the affected area. Question is if there is enough low level moisture to drop a tornado as we have a slowly moving warm front. The trough needs to do some kicking if we want the front to advance northward in a more rapid fashion. Otherwise central and perhaps south LA might have a greater threat than originally anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: People in Alto look to be in the path again after damaging storm earlier. I don't care for the tenor of these cells. It's like a vacuum cleaner, the first pass through town, the next runs parallel just to the north, then just to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Alto looks like it just got hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 https://www.cbs19.tv/video/news/live_breaking/severe-weather-with-possibility-of-tornadoes-moving-through-east-texas/501-2276852 . Tyler TX news station covering the Alto storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this was on the ground since Crocket and hasn't lifted, maybe even south of Crocket. Would be 30+ miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, wotan said: A picture of the Franklin tornado. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1117131600163155968 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Regarding the main risk area a bit further to the east: that grungy stuff in LA is going to have a hard time organizing. Something might organize and become dominant, but hard to see several cells breaking out of that. I'd keep an eye on that area of clearing NE of Houston to the LA border for more discrete development ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Bob Pack on livestormchasing.com live filming damage in Franklin, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Unsure how today is going to pan out further east. As I feared, lack of strong capping has lead to persistent storms all day and has held the warm front further south. Very unstable south of there. Not sure we're going to see the prime overlap of the highest instability and best shear. Hrrr still wanting to ramp things up later in northeast LA and western MS. Just everything is very disorganized now. Texas has been the hot spot so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 That storm between Cushing and Reklaw looks incredibly violent. It’s a very very rural region thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Starting to get a couplet getting into Trawick, TX. Line is going super cellular in TX. Just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Unsure how today is going to pan out further east. As I feared, lack of strong capping has lead to persistent storms all day and has held the warm front further south. Very unstable south of there. Not sure we're going to see the prime overlap of the highest instability and best shear. Hrrr still wanting to ramp things up later in northeast LA and western MS. Just everything is very disorganized now. Texas has been the hot spot so far today Lots of clearing along the MS river. West of Alexandria has been cloudy all day. The crapvaction line looks more discrete than it did a few hours ago so it may produce eventually, especially near the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, canderson said: That storm between Cushing and Reklaw looks incredibly violent. It’s a very very rural region thankfully. Tornado warning at Trawick, TX (SE of Cushing). This one, if it is a tornado, may not be rain-wrapped like some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Outflow reinforced cold front looks like it'll quickly clear most of SE TX out of the threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 My attention is on the cell near Alexandria. Meso still taking shape upstairs, but it's noticeably more isolated/robust than everything around it and heading towards the pristine delta region. EDIT: The next few scans have continued to increase meso intensity, tighten it, and inflow/low level rotation is now increasing as well. This one could be a mean one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Outflow reinforced cold front looks like it'll quickly clear most of SE TX out of the threat area.They've cancelled the tornado watch for the northwestern portion the Houston area. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 minute ago, hlcater said: My attention is on the cell near Alexandria. Meso still taking shape upstairs, but it's noticeably more isolated/robust than everything around it and heading towards the pristine delta region. I wonder if this is the cell HRRR kept on hinting at coming close to Monroe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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