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April 13th-14th Severe Threat


andyhb
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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Franklin cell getting ready for part 2. The cell to itself has a noticeably robust updraft and should be watched too down the line.

PDS tornado warning issued again

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Robertson County in central Texas...
  Western Leon County in central Texas...

* Until 1230 PM CDT.

* At 1140 AM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located 12 miles northeast of Franklin, or 24 miles northeast 
  of Hearne, moving northeast at 40 mph. Tornado has already 
  produced significant damage. 

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
 

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New cell to the SE now tornado warned.


The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
  Southwestern Houston County in southeastern Texas...
  Eastern Madison County in southeastern Texas...
  West central Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1215 PM CDT.
    
* At 1150 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 8 miles southeast of Madisonville, moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation

Not even noon central yet.

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I drive through that area regularly, a lot of rural residences near Highway 6 between Hearne and Calvert. Also that storm is moving up towards Franklin on US 79.
I'll actually be driving up highway 6 through there next Saturday.

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HRRR now popping areas of over 4000(!) SBCAPE later today coupled with ~400 0-1km SRH and 500+ 0-3km SRH with supercells moving through an hour later. Extremely volatile picture being painted for central/east LA if this can be realized to even half of its potential. Not sure I understand the decision to not go high at 1630z. 

hrrr_2019041316_003_31.38--91.86.png?wid

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES...
    
At 1222 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Austonio, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

Confirmed tornado for Midway cell.

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10 minutes ago, hlcater said:

HRRR now popping areas of over 4000(!) SBCAPE later today coupled with ~400 0-1km SRH and 600+ 0-3km SRH with supercells moving through an hour later. Extremely volatile picture being painted for central/east LA if this can be realized to even half of its potential. Not sure I understand the decision to not go high at 1630z. 

hrrr_2019041316_003_31.38--91.86.png?wid

I think it it is the expected number of storms in a geographical area and not their intensity that is the determining factor.

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14 minutes ago, hlcater said:

HRRR now popping areas of over 4000(!) SBCAPE later today coupled with ~400 0-1km SRH and 500+ 0-3km SRH with supercells moving through an hour later. Extremely volatile picture being painted for central/east LA if this can be realized to even half of its potential. Not sure I understand the decision to not go high at 1630z. 

hrrr_2019041316_003_31.38--91.86.png?wid

Understand the concern that they should have went high, but it’s still uncertain whether today’s high ceiling will be reached. The models haven’t been in great agreement about how long the storm mode stays discrete across LA. Given that their forecasts are probability based, that’s arguably enough of a reason to hold off until the afternoon update. 

I don’t envy their position. Today has a high of a ceiling as any set-up we’ve had in at least five years, but they don’t want to get burned overplaying it like they did with those four high risks in 2017 that underperformed.

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I wouldn't be shocked if there is a large tornado in progress on that cell, Crocket cell that is. Radar coverage really not helping out currently.
That's a notorious radar hole. When I took my spotter training, they showed an example from that general area where a damaging tornado had occurred but it was not evident from radar.

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