yoda Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Tornado Watch up till 9am CDT in Southwestern Texas https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0049.html Severe Tstorm Watch until 9am CDT also up in W Texas... above the Tornado Watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Watch out for boundaries from those storms in East Texas into far western LA. Those could be big hotspots for pre-frontal convection by the late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Tornado warning issued by KSJT for Crockett county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Sabine Parish storm in NW LA had a hail marker for tennis to baseball size and was mentioned in the STW out for the area... that's a very rude awakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Kinney County in TX tor warning until 6 AM. Here in Dallas just gotvwoken up by some fairly loud thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Pretty dangerous looking cell directly approaching San Antonio. Massive hail and an ominous radar presentation.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 13z stays moderate risk but with really strong wording ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes -- some potentially strong to violent (EF2+) -- are possible today from east Texas to central Mississippi. Otherwise, numerous severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes from central Texas this morning to the Tennessee Valley region overnight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a leading/northern-stream perturbation will eject northeastward across from its present position over Lake Superior and northern Ontario, across Quebec. To the southwest, a deep, high-amplitude trough is evident in moisture channel imagery over NM, far west TX, and northern MX. This trough will pivot east-northeastward today, developing a closed 500-mb low by 00Z near the DFW Metroplex, and extending southwestward across Coahuila. By 12Z, that low should reach eastern MO, with trough southwestward over the Arklatex to deep south TX. At the surface, the 11Z analysis showed the primary surface low along a band of convection south of SJT. A double structure was apparent to baroclinic zones to its east: the first a quasistationary front across central TX to near a SHV-CBM-CHA axis. The southern front was quasistationary just south of UVA and SAT, becoming a warm front over southeast TX and south-central LA, then quasistationary again over coastal AL and coastal western FL Panhandle. The primary surface low should deepen and cross the Arklatex region late this afternoon into early evening, reaching the lower Ohio Valley around EVV by 12Z. The southern is expected to accelerate northward from mid/late morning, to and perhaps past the I-20 corridor in northeast TX and LA, then over Mississippi, likely merging with the northern one. By that time, a cold front should extend from the low south-southwestward across the MS Coast area, likely preceded by an organized quasi-linear MCS over the Deep South. ...TX to Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and TN Valley... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms, with the main concern being damaging tornadoes, still appears possible today in and near the categorical moderate-risk area. Only peripheral adjustments were needed for this outlook package, based on convective trends this morning and (on the eastern edge) continuity of overnight severe potential into the early day-2 period. Strong-severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Hill Country southward toward the Rio Grande. This convection will pose a severe threat into central TX through the rest of the morning. Refer to SPC watches 48-49 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term details. East of the ongoing activity, the parameter space will become very supportive of supercell/tornado potential through the day in the warm sector, with the main uncertainties being longevity and discreteness of favorable storm mode. As the southern front moves farther inland, a deeply moist boundary layer will spread across the region, with surface dew points commonly in the mid/upper 60s F and locally near 70, PW 1.5-1.75 inches, and mean mixing ratios increasing to 15-16 g/kg, with forecast soundings showing favorably low LCL. Gradual diabatic heating in pockets will weaken already meager MLCINH from midmorning onward, enabling storm formation on pre-MCS sources for weak lift such as confluence/convergence lines, and perhaps persistent/relatively deep horizontal convective rolls. Lapse rates will strengthen with westward extent, supporting preconvective MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of east TX to 1000-2000 J/kg over portions of LA and MS. Such buoyancy will be more than favorable for all forms of severe, amidst strengthening deep shear related to the approach of the mid/upper trough. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors and hodograph sizes will be quite large along and south of the warm front, with forecast soundings yielding 250-600 J/kg effective SRH. Any sustained supercells in this environment will be capable of significant tornadoes. With time this evening and overnight, convection should organize into a roughly north/south-aligned band over the lower Mississippi Valley region, as deep convergence becomes better-focused in the mass response ahead of the synoptic wave. As this occurs, the main threat in a bulk sense may become damaging wind tonight. However, given the strong inflow-layer SRH, tornadoes still will be probable from both embedded supercells and QLCS mesovortices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 There is already a tornado warned cell approaching San Antonio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Really interested to see how this goes today. That amount of SRH should allow for some serious spinners today, especially with such good dews and a low LCL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I'm not chasing in the classical sense today, since I have something something going on in Houston this evening. However, the HRRR has been rather persistent in dragging a strong triple point cell very near me around 18Z. I might see how that plays out before leaving College Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 a severe thunder storm watch for San Antonio area? SPC had tornado watches all night long further west and suddenly they downgrade to a Blue Box even though instability is now increasing as the morning goes on plus some storms will be moving near the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 San Antonio cell is tornado warmed again. Looks like it might end up passing just north of the main city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: San Antonio cell is tornado warmed again. Looks like it might end up passing just north of the main city. That said, most of the San Antonio metro area is north of the "main city" and the northern suburbs are well-populated. It looks like this storm could be moving towards some of the suburban areas of the SA metro area. I'm starting to get a little concerned for the areas near and along north/northwest Loop 1604 if this thing can hold together, especially if the rotation starts to tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Anyone have a good surface ob page? The one I usually use has been down since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Severe tstorm watch for DFw and got some pea size hail in far north Dallas EDIT: Severe warned storm heading into Collin and Denton right above the watch area because of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Golf-ball sized hail just reported in the area of Six Flags Fiesta Texas and quarter size hail at UTSA. The KSAT live stream suggests more significant hail to the north. EDIT: Baseball-sized hail north of Fiesta Texas (along Washita Way in Legend Hills). At least golf-ball sized hail in the Dominion. Seems like a major hail storm is underway in northern Bexar County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 The cell near the KGRK radar site looks like it's getting together. That one looks right on the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 minute ago, 1900hurricane said: The cell near the KGRK radar site looks like it's getting together. That one looks right on the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: The cell near the KGRK radar site looks like it's getting together. That one looks right on the warm front. Yes, it looks like that storm (between Rockdale and Lexington) has developed a hook. Would be concerned for the Bryan area if the storm tried to take a right turn, though it looks to pass north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 The number of discreet cells this early currently all over Texas is highly disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning with that one soon. Velocity is beginning to tighten up as it crosses US 77 south of Rockdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Is anyone concerned that these early storms going up across the moderate risk area might keep a lid on things? We’ve seen so many Dixie events ruined by this in the past, particularly 4-27-2014 which, outside of the Vilonia tornado, didn’t do nearly as much as it could have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said: Is anyone concerned that these early storms going up across the moderate risk area might keep a lid on things? We’ve seen so many Dixie events ruined by this in the past, particularly 4-27-2014 which, outside of the Vilonia tornado, didn’t do nearly as much as it could have. It's all north of the warm front. The warm sector is open with minimal cloud cover, so they shouldn't affect instability much at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I am concerned that the elongated north-south oriented low in Texas is now 1002-1000 mb. That WF is only crawling to the north at present. We may have to wait until later this afternoon and evening as initially expected for the tor potential to be maximized over LA and MS. As Dave Reimer noted earlier in this thread these cells n of the WF can lay down boundaries to enhance svr potential later today once the WF gets in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Already an active day. So many severe warned storms and its only 10:24 AM central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Gonna need a tornado warning urgently on the Hearne, TX cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Potential for a sig tor there. Also a TDS on the latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Gonna need a tornado warning urgently on the Hearne, TX cell. It is warned now and velocities are in excess of 100mph. That beast is spinning like a top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Gonna need a tornado warning urgently on the Hearne, TX cell. Issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 100+ kts G2GSent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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