SmokeEater Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Been lurking reading everyone's thoughts, great job guys, but man, this doesn't look good at all... Getting that feeling on the back of my neck like I do before big tornado days. I'll be around all weekend nowcasting. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Good lord at that Experimental HRRR run, from start to end. Maybe too many storms scrunched up together, but that is a very intimidating simulated reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 0Z HREF/SREF-blended tornado probability guidance. It is more difficult to get higher probabilities, so the large 10% is actually pretty significant. As for my coverage area (Texas) it does seem we'll be dealing with a higher tornado risk compared to what I thought 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Been lurking reading everyone's thoughts, great job guys, but man, this doesn't look good at all... Getting that feeling on the back of my neck like I do before big tornado days. I'll be around all weekend nowcasting. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk I appreciate that greatly. I only have access to NWS radars and your radar pictures are quite helpful. Will be monitoring this situation closely Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Just for the sake of posterity, here's an observed hodo derived from the VWP @ SHV from 4/2/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 In my mind, storm mergers/interaction are the only thing that lead me to be a bit hesitant to put this in 4/28/14 territory. Good discussion with Lyza on Twitter. Low level shear is a bit more impressive tomorrow, but I’d counter that with somewhat less impressive lapse rates/instability and similar to slightly less deep layer shear. Profiles are also rather saturated this go around. High res guidance show a lot of convection, possibly early in the event, which may be a limiting factor. Numerous tornadoes appear likely, along with at least a few EF-2+. If storms are not too cluttered or in close proximity along the prefrontal trough, then you’ll get several long-track, tornadic supercells. Don’t overlook the warm sector east into Mississippi as well before 00z. Deep layer wind profiles are even more impressive there, suggesting you may see long residence time if you manage to pop a sustained supercell or two. Wind profiles become more meridional farther west into East Texas, but a QLCS tornado threat may still evolve. Fortunately the tornado threat seems limited north of the AR/LA border due to a mass of convection and weak buoyancy. Each event is different. A great parameter space isn’t always a slam-dunk outbreak, but odds favor an outbreak tomorrow for a variety of reasons. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Via Twitter, New Orleans and Fort Worth are doing special soundings at 6 and 18Z in support of VORTEX-SE. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Just for the sake of posterity, here's an observed hodo derived from the VWP @ SHV from 4/2/17 SRH was more impressive (than forecast for tomorrow) over a large chunk of Louisiana on 4/2/17. That being said, each outbreak is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Just now, Quincy said: SRH was more impressive (than forecast for tomorrow) over a large chunk of Louisiana on 4/2/17. That being said, each outbreak is different. The region of best instability that day was much further south, and predominantly south of the crazy hodographs in central and northern LA, so i don't think the comparison is entirely fair. Somewhat better overlap between great low-level profiles and instability projected for tomorrow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I'll agree with Quincy that the prevalent low-level saturation that has shown up in most convection allowing models makes me every so slightly concerned. On the other hand, there isn't extremely strong WAA/synoptic ascent through the warm sector. Also agree that low-level lapse rates could be a tad steeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Even more bullish for 16z tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 41 minutes ago, Quincy said: In my mind, storm mergers/interaction are the only thing that lead me to be a bit hesitant to put this in 4/28/14 territory. Good discussion with Lyza on Twitter. Low level shear is a bit more impressive tomorrow, but I’d counter that with somewhat less impressive lapse rates/instability and similar to slightly less deep layer shear. Profiles are also rather saturated this go around. High res guidance show a lot of convection, possibly early in the event, which may be a limiting factor. Numerous tornadoes appear likely, along with at least a few EF-2+. If storms are not too cluttered or in close proximity along the prefrontal trough, then you’ll get several long-track, tornadic supercells. Don’t overlook the warm sector east into Mississippi as well before 00z. Deep layer wind profiles are even more impressive there, suggesting you may see long residence time if you manage to pop a sustained supercell or two. Wind profiles become more meridional farther west into East Texas, but a QLCS tornado threat may still evolve. Fortunately the tornado threat seems limited north of the AR/LA border due to a mass of convection and weak buoyancy. Each event is different. A great parameter space isn’t always a slam-dunk outbreak, but odds favor an outbreak tomorrow for a variety of reasons. Great summary! I have a feeling if something goes in the eastern target, it’s going to put down the most significant tornado of the day. If I was chasing, I’d seriously consider taking a gamble on that target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 And Saturday begins as expected.... Mesoscale Discussion 0311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 Areas affected...Southwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 130440Z - 130645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across southwest TX over the next few hours. Some severe hail is possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...Strong moisture advection throughout the evening has significantly modified the low-level air mass across the region. Dewpoints across the area have increased 10 to 15 degrees over the last 3 hours with much of the region now characterized by dewpoints in the upper 40s and low 50s. At the same time, ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving through northern Mexico continues to increase, resulting in both an increase in high-level cloudiness over the region and a deepening of the surface low centered near FST. Continued moisture advection amidst this ascent, surface convergence, and increasing instability is expected to result in eventual convective initiation. Current expectation is for most of these storms to be elevated north of the warm front, although surface-based development cannot be entirely ruled out later tonight across portions of the Edwards Plateau. Vertical shear supports updraft rotation, with hail possible within the more persistent and robust updrafts. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/13/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 The real question is if they will go high risk at the first day 1 for Saturday. Imho, the risk to life and property should override the what ifs. There's enough there to warrant it. High risk captures the public's attention more than moderate. Again, imho. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Just now, wotan said: The real question is if they will go high risk at the first day 1 for Saturday. Imho, the risk to life and property should override the what ifs. There's enough there to warrant it. High risk captures the public's attention more than moderate. Again, imho. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk The same was said on April 2, 2017 - and there was some pretty harsh backlash when that event didn't live up to the 'high risk' expectations. It's a tough line to walk between societal impacts and maintaining scientific/meteorological integrity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 The same was said on April 2, 2017 - and there was some pretty harsh backlash when that event didn't live up to the 'high risk' expectations. It's a tough line to walk between societal impacts and maintaining scientific/meteorological integrity. I understand. The same holds true for potential tropical cyclones. Ultimately, why does the nws exist? Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, wotan said: The real question is if they will go high risk at the first day 1 for Saturday. Imho, the risk to life and property should override the what ifs. There's enough there to warrant it. High risk captures the public's attention more than moderate. Again, imho. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk I'd hold off on the 0600 OTLK and go mod but mention chance for upgrade to high... wait to see how the early morning starts out. Go for it at 1300 OTLK if everything is coming together... 1300 is 9am so people will be getting up around then and will see and hear about it on the morning news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 I'd hold off on the 0600 OTLK and go mod but mention chance for upgrade to high... wait to see how the early morning starts out. Go for it at 1300 OTLK if everything is coming together... 1300 is 9am so people will be getting up around then and will see and hear about it on the morning newsThat's more than reasonable. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 As I understand it, the svr risk level is scientifically based on the anticipated number of storms within a specified geographical area. I remember that May 3, 1999 in Oklahoma had an increasing level of risk issued throughout the day as the parameters came into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 37 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Even more bullish for 16z tomorrow... Greetings from Gregg County - about dead center of this terror map. Ill be updating tmrw as much as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 As I understand it, the svr risk level is scientifically based on the anticipated number of storms within a specified geographical area. I remember that May 3, 1999 in Oklahoma had an increasing level of risk issued throughout the day as the parameters came into focus.If nws were purely a basic science outfit, that would be valid. But as Sandy showed, that's not really how people work. Nws has a responsibility to the general public that isn't always served by scientific rigidity. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, wotan said: If nws were purely a basic science outfit, that would be valid. But as Sandy showed, that's not really how people work. Nws has a responsibility to the general public that isn't always served by scientific rigidity. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Yes, and after Sandy the NHC changed the way they issued warnings for hurricanes that had lost the warm core characteristics in a technical sense so the public could better understand the threat. With severe storms that's why I follow Hazardous weather outlooks which lead to mesoscale discussions, watches, and warnings. But then I am a wx nerd and the general public might not be that attentive. I know sociologists have studied and commented on this communication issue...most recently with the EF 4 in Alabama. We'll see how this plays out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, yoda said: I'd hold off on the 0600 OTLK and go mod but mention chance for upgrade to high... wait to see how the early morning starts out. Go for it at 1300 OTLK if everything is coming together... 1300 is 9am so people will be getting up around then and will see and hear about it on the morning news Everyone here knows about tomorrow - events being cancelled, etc. It’s a high risk without a SPC high risk mark already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Yes, and after Sandy the NHC changed the way they issued warnings for hurricanes that had lost the warm core characteristics in a technical sense so the public could better understand the threat. With severe storms that's why I follow Hazardous weather outlooks which lead to mesoscale discussions, watches, and warnings. But then I am a wx nerd and the general public might not be that attentive. I know sociologists have studied and commented on this communication issue...most recently with the EF 4 in Alabama. We'll see how this plays out today. I'm saying that's basically why I would go high risk Saturday. The general public are really the audience, not those of us who understand nuance. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 06Z is moderate risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: 06Z is moderate risk. Looking at the expansion of the Mod area, they left room for a smaller High area if needed in the next outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Looks like a Tornado Watch coming shortly potentially in SW TX https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0312.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Hatched area for sig tors on D1 is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Storms firing with large hail already in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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