Hoosier Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 57 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I was a few days ago, since it usually gets held up around I-80 in most cases. However, it looks like there is significant support for it to make it to at least the IL/WI border during the afternoon. I'm just still not totally convinced yet that it's going to get all the way to the WI border, even though much of the guidance seems to favor it. If it does, I would lean on it being delayed... like after 6 pm. Counterpoint... there won't be a lot of convection around to impede the northward progress through morning and into afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Timing sucks for those of us more or less east of 65. Do think we could see a decent QCLS line late along the cold front might at least be a decent light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2019 Author Share Posted April 11, 2019 NAM still focusing svr parameters most especially on the Calumet region of nw IN for Thursday late evening. Saving grace might be timing, squall line mode, and degree of moisture. Where does that WF finally hang up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Wouldn't mind making a run at the trip point play tomorrow out near Iowa Falls/Waterloo/Cedar Rapids. HRRR has been pretty insistent on a nice little area of backed winds, and pooled surface moisture in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Wouldn't mind making a run at the trip point play tomorrow out near Iowa Falls/Waterloo/Cedar Rapids. HRRR has been pretty insistent on a nice little area of backed winds, and pooled surface moisture in that area. Got your boosters strapped for that 50kt SMV? Though I’d probably chase too if I weren’t busy. I’ve been eying tomorrow for the past few days and think we could definitely see a tor or two, especially if the higher instability on the HRRR is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, hlcater said: Got your boosters strapped for that 50kt SMV? Though I’d probably chase too if I weren’t busy. I’ve been eying tomorrow for the past few days and think we could definitely see a tor or two, especially if the higher instability on the HRRR is realized. Yeah I won't be out either as we're buried at work right now. If it were the weekend I'd be out there just to get out and shake the rust off. I'd prob head towards Iowa Falls and wait on the developing arc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Managed to sneak in a couple good rumbles of thunder and some 1/2” hail as I got skirted by a storm this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Let's all just take a moment of silence for the beauty of today's trough on the 500mb charts and what it could have done with a properly moistened warm sector. I'm thinking 54 years ago today redux wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility (Although IIRC that one was even stronger, the max I can find today is 110kt while Palm Sunday '65 had >140kt if I'm not mistaken?). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Let's all just take a moment of silence for the beauty of today's trough on the 500mb charts and what it could have done with a properly moistened warm sector. I'm thinking 54 years ago today redux wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility (Although IIRC that one was even stronger, the max I can find today is 110kt while Palm Sunday '65 had >140kt if I'm not mistaken?). Yeah, Palm Sunday had about 140 kts max with 100+ kts leaking out into the prefrontal warm sector. There was a paper done a few years ago that had a synthetic sounding from South Bend around tornado time and I think it had like 107 kts at 500 mb. The flow for today's setup is more meridional, and overall, I don't think we would've seen an outcome like Palm Sunday even with better moisture (I guess that is the safer stance to take haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'm just still not totally convinced yet that it's going to get all the way to the WI border, even though much of the guidance seems to favor it. If it does, I would lean on it being delayed... like after 6 pm. Counterpoint... there won't be a lot of convection around to impede the northward progress through morning and into afternoon. This is looking like the likely outcome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is looking like the likely outcome at this point. 2 PM temps from N to S: UGN 42 ORD 51 JOT 58 IKK 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2019 Author Share Posted April 11, 2019 KIND has already hit 80 degrees today. Sending the warm front your way Chicago metro people. Dew point is 49. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112013Z - 112115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe weather potential is expected with developing thunderstorm activity across parts of northern Illinois by the 4-6 PM CDT time frame. It is possible that this threat may remain low enough that a watch is not needed, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Near/just ahead of the lower/mid tropospheric cold front, forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to the ongoing increase in thunderstorm activity across northwestern Illinois into southwestern Wisconsin. This activity is largely rooted above a near-surface stable layer to the north of the surface warm front, with relatively warm mid-levels and weak mid/high level lapse rates allowing for only weak CAPE. The band of convection is expected to gradually spread eastward during the few hours, with southward development into the warm sector of the surface cyclone also possible by 21-23Z. Even within the warm sector, relatively low surface dew points across parts of eastern Missouri into west central Illinois are currently resulting in negligible boundary layer CAPE. However, modest low-level moisture (reflected by mid 50s+ surface dew points) appears to be returning northward/northwestward in a corridor to the east/northeast through north of Springfield, into the vicinity of the warm front. A combination of at least weak boundary-layer destabilization along the warm front, coupled with increasing lift ahead of the occluding surface cyclone triple point (and associated eastward advancing band of mid-level forcing for ascent), may allow for at least isolated boundary-layer based storm development. This seems most likely north/northeast of the Peoria vicinity, and may include one or two supercells accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong surface gusts. Although low-level thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal, given the synoptic environment, and large low-level hodographs near/beneath 50+ kt southerly 850 mb flow, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/11/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 I'm just gonna post this here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm just gonna post this here Just make sure you are on that w-e road where it lies and you are good to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2019 Author Share Posted April 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, Stebo said: Just make sure you are on that w-e road where it lies and you are good to go. U.S. 24 special in Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 11, 2019 Author Share Posted April 11, 2019 Watching HRRR closely to see if it's correct on timing of storms tonight. Seems ok wrt present radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 DOA threat is DOA. Best chance for any severe was near the warm front and triple point in E. IA and N/C. IL...which didn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2019 Author Share Posted April 12, 2019 Yep...too little instability and moisture. On to Saturday in TX and Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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