Moosey2323 Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 That GFS run was quite dramatic. It looked a lot stronger but it also went much farther north. The 18 zulu run had Michigan at 30-40 degrees with 10 inches of snow, this run has 70 degrees with a possible severe threat? I think I'm gonna revisit this storm next week... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 All guidance has shifted well north and with a stronger system.The big difference is how guidance is handling blocking with the NAO. New guidance with the further north solution now has much less strong blocking further west, which allows much more ridging ahead of this system...allowing a much more amped and further north system.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 12z Euro is south of the 00z run, but not as far south as the Friday 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeEPO Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 So the Euro is an outlier right now? I pray that for once, it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Should be a classic early spring north/south temp gradient setting up with this one. The Euro has Hoosier in the 70s, while up at Geo's old stomping ground they're stuck near 40 at midday Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Should be a classic early spring north/south temp gradient setting up with this one. The Euro has Hoosier in the 70s, while up at Geo's old stomping ground they're stuck near 40 at midday Thursday. Tricky temperature forecast. Could envision that warm front getting hung up longer somewhere in the metro area (aided by cold lake) until the surface low makes its closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Tricky temperature forecast. Could envision that warm front getting hung up longer somewhere in the metro area (aided by cold lake) until the surface low makes its closest approach. Seems that in this early spring scenarios they tend to hang up just north of I-80 across N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Repeat of April 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 8, 2019 Author Share Posted April 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Repeat of April 2018? I want snow but I don't think I want the 2.5' the GFS is giving me. This is very similar looking to last year looking at the Euro. 2018 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 GFS not backing down at all, in fact now showing more widespread 30” totals in southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Are you ok NAM ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 8, 2019 Author Share Posted April 8, 2019 Holy Buckets! This is really turning into heck of a snowstorm. Time to get the yard stick out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 NWS Chanhassen has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the twin cities. Saying there could be some isolated 20” totals but officially forecasting 7-15” for the area. Could see winds sustained over 30mph snow its gusts over 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 As my friend from Stillwater MN says storms like these are what define population control in these areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 NWS North Platte, NE: Northerly winds will also increase on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This will lead to possible blowing and drifting snow for Wednesday night and Thursday. Current thinking is that for early Wednesday evening winds will only really have an impact on falling snow as the character of the snow will be too wet to blow much once it is on the ground. However, as the night progresses and snow ratios rise to from 15:1 to near 20:1, snow will be easier to blow once it is on the ground, resulting in not only blowing snow but drifting snow as well. Northerly winds on Thursday morning will rise to 45 to 55 mph which could result blizzard conditions and significant visibility reductions leading to continued travel concerns. While snow is expected to move east by late Thursday afternoon, blowing snow will continue well into Thursday night as winds remain above 35 mph across the region through this time. Overall, the highest snow totals will be across the northern portions of north central Nebraska where rain transitioned over to snow quicker. Lesser amounts are expected as one moves south towards I-80. After looking at recent guidance, have significantly increased totals across the north with the highest amounts generally along a line from Valentine to Spencer where up to 25 inches could be possible. Snow will taper to the south where the precipitation remained rain a bit longer. Lowest amounts at this time will be across eastern Frontier and southern Custer counties where up to 3 to 4 inches is still possible. Regardless of snow totals, the snow combined with the potential freezing rain earlier and strong winds during and after the snow, will lead to quite dangerous travel conditions across much of western and north central Nebraska. Caution should be exercised if travel is absolutely necessary on Wednesday into Thursday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Wagons north. Looks like we’ll get more of a mixed bag of precip here then purely snow. As long as MSP records 2.7” and we get to 70” on the season I’ll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: NWS North Platte, NE: Northerly winds will also increase on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This will lead to possible blowing and drifting snow for Wednesday night and Thursday. Current thinking is that for early Wednesday evening winds will only really have an impact on falling snow as the character of the snow will be too wet to blow much once it is on the ground. However, as the night progresses and snow ratios rise to from 15:1 to near 20:1, snow will be easier to blow once it is on the ground, resulting in not only blowing snow but drifting snow as well. Northerly winds on Thursday morning will rise to 45 to 55 mph which could result blizzard conditions and significant visibility reductions leading to continued travel concerns. While snow is expected to move east by late Thursday afternoon, blowing snow will continue well into Thursday night as winds remain above 35 mph across the region through this time. Overall, the highest snow totals will be across the northern portions of north central Nebraska where rain transitioned over to snow quicker. Lesser amounts are expected as one moves south towards I-80. After looking at recent guidance, have significantly increased totals across the north with the highest amounts generally along a line from Valentine to Spencer where up to 25 inches could be possible. Snow will taper to the south where the precipitation remained rain a bit longer. Lowest amounts at this time will be across eastern Frontier and southern Custer counties where up to 3 to 4 inches is still possible. Regardless of snow totals, the snow combined with the potential freezing rain earlier and strong winds during and after the snow, will lead to quite dangerous travel conditions across much of western and north central Nebraska. Caution should be exercised if travel is absolutely necessary on Wednesday into Thursday night. 25"?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 9, 2019 Author Share Posted April 9, 2019 Models have the severe storms down in Nebraska moving north and turning into snow in Minnesota. I expect insane snowfall rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 I picked up a nice 0.74" inches of rain overnight. I was not expecting more than a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Snow has started in Minneapolis, definitely going to start sticking soon. No mixing issues yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Graupel/snow mix by O’Hare. Lovely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 huge flakes in Madison, some are easily half dollar size or bigger. Already accumulating well on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Graupel/snow mix by O’Hare. Lovely.Was pouring graupel in Evergreen Park about an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Had a period of flurries to sleet to ice pellets late this morning/early this afternoon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 That is all going to be very bad for the Missouri/Red/Platte River flooding later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 10, 2019 Author Share Posted April 10, 2019 So the models two days ago had the snow starting at 10am here. Yesterday it was 4pm. Turns out it was 10am and came down heavy. 6'' of snow in 5 hours. It also many turn out to be at least 15'' here when the models had warmer all and some rain. Still not as bad as out west with 2-2.5' of snow which is insane. This looks to be the opposite of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard. Too bad it's not Easter yet so we could call it Easter Blizzard. 1991: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Right now it is just absolutely puking snow. I probably have a half inch or an inch on grassy area right now. These are probably some of the heavier pure snowfall rates I've seen all year and that is saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Well things have escalated quickly here. 2” down and easily adding an inch an hour. Good thing I left work early, the roads are snow covered....so much for the April sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 31 car temp parked on I-41 in Tosa. Snow caked on signage Everything non-paved is whitened up. Just slush on pavement yet.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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