MNstorms Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Time to welcome winter back after a month long spring? Still a week out but models in strong agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Not a breath about this from my local mets so far. They're focused on the 60s forecast for Saturday through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Not a breath about this from my local mets so far. They're focused on the 60s forecast for Saturday through Monday. Like I said this is still a week out. The big thing is the models didn't see this 30 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 please. no. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, Baum said: please. no. I hope it trends south, right through ORD land. That may give the Cubs a chance to work on their pitching during the game cancellations. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 50 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I hope it trends south, right through ORD land. That may give the Cubs a chance to work on their pitching during the game cancellations. Bullpen has been appalling lol. For real though I hope this goes north. Would be nice to get some storms out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Put that thing back where it came from or so help me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Track on this one is going to depend on the strength of the -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeEPO Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Not a breath about this from my local mets so far. They're focused on the 60s forecast for Saturday through Monday. Because snow (as well as anything winter-related, like garbage cold, sleet, freezing rain) SUCKS. Why people root for winter wx is beyond me. Give me record breaking warmth and sunshine any day of the year, and perhaps some severe wx every now and then too. **** winter. Great lakes climo is such utter trash. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, NegativeEPO said: Because snow (as well as anything winter-related, like garbage cold, sleet, freezing rain) SUCKS. Why people root for winter wx is beyond me. Give me record breaking warmth and sunshine any day of the year, and perhaps some severe wx every now and then too. **** winter. Great lakes climo is such utter trash. Thanks. You just screwed us. Guess, I'll drag my snowblower out of the shed. Good news, opening day looks decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 How apropos....... this "Winter" season will be book ended by two epic off season Blizzards......possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 2 things you can usually count on for spring snowstorms, is that the model snow maps will overdo things and the local mets will under do things. So whoever's in the path of the storm once it's imminent, take the median ground between what the local mets are forecasting and what the snow maps are showing, and that's probably what's going to happen. Last Saturday was a great example of that here. Pouring rain turning to wet snow before ending had local mets acknowledging the rain would likely turn to snow but there would be little if any accumulation before the cold came in. The model snow maps showed around 3" of snow since they were forecasting at least 0.3" of qpf falling as snow. Well, that's exactly what happened, at least 0.3" of liquid fell as snow, but the accumulation translated to 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Wow! Some epic output 12Z runs on many models for the lower great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 rumor has it this has not disappeared yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Euro is a major winter storm!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Interesting to see the Euro came south and now nice hits of snow from Chicago to Detroit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Baum said: rumor has it this has not disappeared yet. Some track differences aside, we are seeing consistent model signals for a significant snowstorm somewhere in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 I'm not very familiar with the climatology of Chicago this time of year. How unusual are the amounts the Euro is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I'm not very familiar with the climatology of Chicago this time of year. How unusual are the amounts the Euro is showing? Put it this way. The latest 6" calendar day snow on record is April 6. The first 5-7 days of the month have produced pretty decent snows... not common, but not unheard of. Once you get beyond the first week of April, snows of several inches are exceedingly rare. Will roll out more stats at a later time, if warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Latest euro snow precip map... quite the southward leap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Put it this way. The latest 6" calendar day snow on record is April 6. The first 5-7 days of the month have produced pretty decent snows... not common, but not unheard of. Once you get beyond the first week of April, snows of several inches are exceedingly rare. Will roll out more stats at a later time, if warranted. My better half was born April 14,1961 in a snowstorm...so the story goes....in Downers Grove,Il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: My better half was born April 14,1961 in a snowstorm...so the story goes....in Downers Grove,Il Dailies for Chicago back then were 1.1", 5.4", 0.3". So that qualifies as a 6" storm even though there wasn't a calendar day 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Yikes, totals anywhere close to that are really going to exacerbate the upper MS flooding issues.Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 ^ well we know that's crazy. But fun even in the spring to look at a model map like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 2 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said: Looks fun. That gradient, one hell of a warm front. The F-gen would be off the charts in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 Admittedly it's early for details, but a look at the GFS forecast soundings would suggest the possibility of thundersnow. Fairly steep mid level lapse rates work their way into the cold sector. Will have a lot to consider when determining actual snow amounts. Temps look to get into the 70s on Monday in a large chunk of the potential snow area. Ground warmth will be a factor to some degree so realizing the heavier rates will be important to fight against the melting/compaction tendency. Have to consider the April sun angle as well... not that it won't accumulate during the daytime but may have more efficient accumulation at night. All in all, certainly looks like it could be a memorable April snowstorm for some areas, but I would definitely advise against riding the clown map output verbatim given the aforementioned factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 no way this sticks....not the snow...the model interpretations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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