SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Heading out to BJs today to get wholesale supplies to prepare for the super1938mega1635 heading right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 we may never hurricane again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 What Invest are y'all talking about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What Invest are y'all talking about ? 69L 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Canadian came closer.. seems the slower models are west. Also see a spin south of lake okeechobee.. models initialize on the east coast of Florida or just offshore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Tropical depression 5 ...forecast to become a hurricane as it crosses NE Caribbean that is an example of the POLITICS of forecasting . Caribbean Looks hostile l and would be lucky to make it thru as Tropical storm but IMO bc it’s close to islands Stewart is going with HRFW? And Cat 1. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Let’s see if Euro puts 98L to bed only model still taking this into more than moderate tropical storm unless UKIE bounces back this half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Euro puts 98L to bed ulmet is so bad it decided to not run there goes 3 days of F’N swells F#<^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Tropical depression 5 ...forecast to become a hurricane as it crosses NE Caribbean that is an example of the POLITICS of forecasting . Caribbean Looks hostile l and would be lucky to make it thru as Tropical storm but IMO bc it’s close to islands Stewart is going with HRFW? And Cat 1. Good luck 5pm Hello Tropical Storm Dorian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 5pm Hello Tropical Storm Dorian That’s wasnt ever a question, with a small system will probably make a cane east of Caribbean, don’t see it surviving Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about. It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet. However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about. It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet. However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing. 98L looks ots and weak. 90L is a pointless invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 98L looks ots and weak. 90L is a pointless invest. Legacy gfs has dorian Into the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about. It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet. However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing. Something is going to hit the east coast this summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Legacy gfs has dorian Into the gulf I saw that and 12z NAM. Would probably cause I'mpacts for atleast the Cape... as of now I think neither will happen.. ofcourse TWC is starting to make it seem like the Northeast could get hit by something big.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 26, 2019 Author Share Posted August 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2019 Share Posted August 26, 2019 28 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Sandysurvivor has lashed himself to an I-beam and is patiently awaiting for the world to blow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Wondering if that NAM's "Predecessor Rain Event" should be taken seriously or not. In one school, the NAM tends to over-emphasize the NW influence of cyclonic events as a general bias tendency, over the far west and northwest Atlantic, concerning extra-tropical cyclones. Not sure if that also is true for weakly bounded and/or developing TCs that are in the process of being sucked up into the westerlies. Right now, TD 6 looms out there. It has the old single tilted CB look, with shearing going on from the N clearly suggestive via various satellite channels. But, there is a coherent llv closed circulation and it sets proximal to deep oceanic heat content that is clearly coupled to the lower troposphere ...so given any relaxation at all, that system ( I would not be surprised) may get better organized at a proficient rate. This would be a short window of opportunity - although, in a lowering SRS inside the westerly channeling blah blah. In any case, as it is moving up about 400 km or so east of the mid Atlantic, we see a NAM QPF eruption/banded in a quasi arc extending roughly mid Long Island to NE Mass. That's pretty textbook "PRE," as they tend to occur on the polar side of TCs that are in the processes of recurving into the westerlies. That definition doesn't really discuss or limit the event based upon how well structure the the involved TC is - so the extend of organization may not mater. I'm not sure the NAM is very trustworthy in this specific area of deterministic weather forecasting - I'm guessing no? But it is by definition a meso model so - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 TD 6 is your baby. Enjoy it guys. It will probably rapidly intensify and pump the heights over Maritime Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2019 Author Share Posted August 27, 2019 TD6 is a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: TD6 is a mess Give it some time. Here is the high-resolution output for the PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event) from 18z NAMNEST. Edit: JMA is a double SNE-special from TD6 and Dorian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 always have the JMA for some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 WTF with the last 3-4 pages Maybe Donald Trump should just nuke this thread instead 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Gfs legacy is a wave maker wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2019 Author Share Posted August 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Give it some time. Here is the high-resolution output for the PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event) from 18z NAMNEST. Edit: JMA is a double SNE-special from TD6 and Dorian. Intensity busts as well as near stationary cyclones, etc. other factors still display the weaknesses of today's models. Watching this weak TD curve 350mi. SE of Nantucket is boring, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 I may Chase Dorian if it goes Cat 2 + 300$ round trip to FL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I may Chase Dorian if it goes Cat 2 + 300$ round trip to FL Cat. 2+ milf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Erin is with us now, TD6 has been upgraded according to the NAVY site and the 00z Best track site ATCF site. Models are coming west with the track of Erin, very close now to the benchmark and we have another three days before she can reach our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Someone should e-mail the NHC and let them know. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Someone should e-mail the NHC and let them know. lol, but I do think they upgrade it to Erin at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now