Vice-Regent Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about? The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938. There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm... Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics - Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway... The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck" ... and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay... I can dig it 18z GFS is more less what he's looking for synoptically but there's simply nothing there. I don't believe it. This needs to establish a core soon or it's going to become a significant concern for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Come on John, we can be more sincere than that. We know what he means. This is after all a tropical weather subtopic. NO... I don't think we do haha But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season... When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NO... I don't think we do haha But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season... When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one.. Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season. Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing. I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world. Not again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 You should always have a plan living on the EC. That’s a given. But as john said, even if the gfs is right...:I don’t see something where a significant tropical system will cause widespread issues that some here are worried about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 99L goes into the Shredder on the 18z GFS (You just can't make this stuff up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season. Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing. I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world. Not again. Seriously? Not having power for a day was the worst feeling in the world? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 So 2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: Seriously? Not having power for a day was the worst feeling in the world? No dungeons and dragons 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: SandySurvivor - If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period.... That said, at this time this is no threat to you. NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous. Nothing. This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency. Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint: THERE ARE NONE. It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included... that tells us there are no signs. Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise... by all means, enlighten us. Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME. Am I gettin' thru. Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season. Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing. I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world. Not again. Wait until we get a mega CME. Goodbye grid for a long long time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area Ok, but we wait for the CRAS for confirmation before we really freak out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Ok, but we wait for the CRAS for confirmation before we really freak out. Yeah. What’s the Australian have? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 JMA for tropical forecasting? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 One GEFS member is on the JMA side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 Lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 I'm all in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: One GEFS member is on the JMA side The operational run too in a strange twist. Minus the sea level pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: The operational run too in a strange twist. Minus the sea level pressure. Most likely stays out.. fun for the fishes.... not going to lie though my weenie self is checking every run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Can someone QUE the Shwoegler Youtube “get in the basement vid /blizzard 78 redux” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Not gonna happen, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 It's definitely gonna happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not gonna happen, James. 34 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It's definitely gonna happen. I side with the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 The 0z Euro depicts an U/L low pressure near 50/50 at 96hr. modulate that LP less deep in time- as well as a less-than-modeled s/w rounding the base of that deep trough in Southern CA, could be more interesting. Otherwise the flow is too flat and it's an easy recurve. Whether a system even gets going.... Haven't looked at anything 0z except the 0z euro op and gfs, and fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 The 12z JMA (lol) had a much more favorable UL jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 0z Ukie is OTS, has a reasonably potent system. It's worth watching, anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 It's over Johhny....It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's over Johhny....It's over. Tasty waves, cool buzz and I feel fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 The Ukmet no longer has a deep system Thr icon no longer has a deep system The Euro still has a deep system offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It's over Johhny....It's over. What we call hell, he calls home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 Not gonna happen...is def gonna happen Weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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