wxeyeNH Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Model trends sure are not getting me excited for any tropical action up here. On a side note, what is going on with the death toll in the Bahamas? Official death toll at 50 for many days. I'm sure they have gotten some heavy equipment into that storm surge area of Great Abaco with all those shanties. From what people were saying on the ground the smell of death is everywhere in the air but nobodies? Maybe because it was a poor area with a Haitian population these people somehow don't count. Just seems like such a disconnect. 1500 missing but the death toll never rises not even by 1 or 2 people. There must be some political reason to keep it low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 6 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Should see different solutions until models initialize correctly.. recon found the center east.. but as of now looks like it's for the fishes or Bermuda. I believe the second Atlantic Hurricane on the models is a threat but maybe heads out to sea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the second Atlantic Hurricane on the models is a threat but maybe heads out to sea as well. I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. If the trough wasn't still positive with that funky cut off piece over alabama maybe this could sling it up here.......still seems far enough out that its still possible no? wouldn't take much? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 3 hours ago, ice1972 said: If the trough wasn't still positive with that funky cut off piece over alabama maybe this could sling it up here.......still seems far enough out that its still possible no? wouldn't take much? Oh no ...not Bama again....???? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 11 hours ago, ineedsnow said: I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. Give it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 12 hours ago, ineedsnow said: I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. Agree. Just need it to stall for a week, do a figure 8, and then get picked up ahead of an October trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Give it up I agree even though I'm still tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 So now i have sour milk and moldy bread, Dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: So now i have sour milk and moldy bread, Dam. Lol...yup the hype and drama of that one Euro run, when there might not have been enough time to get your sour milk and moldy bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Doldrums. Would be nice to at least get a good, early season nor'easter in here to break the routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 2 hours ago, rimetree said: Doldrums. Would be nice to at least get a good, early season nor'easter in here to break the routine. Agree!! Something like you said to break up the monotony of this boring time of year known as September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Agree!! Something like you said to break up the monotony of the this boring time of year known as September... Saving it for winter when it counts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 21 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Saving it for winter when it counts. Ok...I guess I’m cool with that too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 It's a seldom wins month, September, for those that engage in this past time solely for the entertainment/dopamine "joy" spike factor. Having to depend almost entirely upon tropics to get those "highs" in this geographic predicament ? ... ancillary hobbies folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Don’t worry, We all have hobbies Tip...quite a few fun ones actually. Nobody here is clinically depressed due to benign/quiet weather. Some of us are Just throwing it out there, that it’s fun to track and converse about exciting weather that could/looks to impact our backyards. For the most part, most of us are on this site for the excitement of active weather developing, moving towards and impacting our areas. It’s as plain and simple as that. It doesn’t mean we don’t have other things to keep us busy one bit, it just means we enjoy the active times of weather, along with everything else in our lives. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 EPS with alot of members looping now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Don’t worry, We all have hobbies Tip...quite a few fun ones actually. Nobody here is clinically depressed due to benign/quiet weather. Some of us are Just throwing it out there, that it’s fun to track and converse about exciting weather that could/looks to impact our backyards. For the most part, most of us are on this site for the excitement of active weather developing, moving towards and impacting our areas. It’s as plain and simple as that. It doesn’t mean we don’t have other things to keep us busy one bit, it just means we enjoy the active times of weather, along with everything else in our lives. I am .. this blows! It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha J/k... Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: EPS with alot of members looping now Not impossible ? But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities.. I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. . That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc. After that... heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate. It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it - I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not impossible ? But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities.. I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. . That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc. After that... heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate. It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it - I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all. So kind of what the 18z NAVGEM shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Loops...ya ain’t happening James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Cmc is way west and slower with humberto East coast landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Give it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Give it up Happy tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 There’s nothing to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There’s nothing to track. We were fooled by 2 models last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We were fooled by 2 models last night. If you’re fooled by Canadian and navgem, I have no words 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We were fooled by 2 models last night. Who is we? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Who is we? Not you or Scott but others last night. It was an interesting set of runs besides the European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 14 hours ago, ineedsnow said: So kind of what the 18z NAVGEM shows? No... there's nothing about that solution yesterday that looped - do you know what a looped trajectory looks like? ...It looks like this: I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, but the cyclone literally has to perform a trajectory that does some variation of that - Looking at that particular model run, 18z NOGAPs or NAVGEM or whatever's its designation... I don't see that happening so not sure if you understand what we mean by loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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