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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think some of you are in a fantasy land when it comes to this stuff.  I get the whole Drama/Dramatic idea, but in October 2011, Most of CT/lots of Interior SNE was without power for a Week to two weeks.  It sucked. It wasn't fun, but it was not a Catastrophe, or a disaster of Epic proportions like we see in the Bahamas.   There's not going to be a 38 redux with regard to Surprise like some seem to think.  Heck, it'd be tough to get a storm of that magnitude up this way ever period...let alone on a surprise.  Those days are long gone.

So long as one is careful not to conflate "surprise" with "destruction" 

I mean it would only help to get folks under cover.  Otherwise, it wouldn't really matter whether there is element surprise...  A category 3 hurricane moving that fast, whether seen coming or not is sides the point; it is doing the same consequential shit where ever it decides to encounter land...  

Like all water access terminals and real-estate ventures spanning the last 70 years from Brownsville to Portland, most of these regions were expanded profligate with only passive concern if awareness at all to the relative rarity of a 1938 ...or a Galveston 1901 ... or a Labor Day bomb... Andrew... Maria ... etc etc... and well, these things are simply going to happen again.   The present infrastructure of the upper MA and S. SNE regions is an order of magnitude more valuable/expanded in terms of economic equivalency ... such that proportion to era would make a 1938 redux the superior loss in these modern times.  

So yes and no...  these other relativity make that no sense of ease or comfort even if one gets to know it's coming ...  

 

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49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I remember it and survived too, After 7 days with no power and 2' of water in the basement for a grand total of $3,000 worth of damage.

No floods at my place in Gardiner, but greatest calendar-day rain event I've measured - 6.41".  Also the only TC I can recall that had backside winds as powerful as the frontside, though 90% of RA came before the wind shift.  A popple stand on our Hebron lot atop Greenwood Hill was 2/3 flattened, 1/3 of trees pointed NW and 1/3 pointed SE (and 1/3 still upright, surprisingly.)

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I think some of you are in a fantasy land when it comes to this stuff.  I get the whole Drama/Dramatic idea, but in October 2011, Most of CT/lots of Interior SNE was without power for a Week to two weeks.  It sucked. It wasn't fun, but it was not a Catastrophe, or a disaster of Epic proportions like we see in the Bahamas.   There's not going to be a 38 redux with regard to Surprise like some seem to think.  Heck, it'd be tough to get a storm of that magnitude up this way ever period...let alone on a surprise.  Those days are long gone.

Thing is the area where the power was out the longest was not that big though......Hartford west into the Farmington Valley - West Hartford, Farmington, Avon, Simsbury took it hard but it wasn't all that difficult to find the supplies you needed by driving 20 minutes south.....I filled up our gas tanks for the genny when I would go to work in Cheshire, for example, for those 10 days when the gas stations at home were either without power or out of gas......if the whole state was impacted like that IDK man.....it would be worse.....

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Definitely  trending that way.. still soooo far out though.  If we still see the Euro and other models coming close on Sunday then it will start getting  really interesting being 5 or so days out.

18z euro still shows a hurricane off the SE coast. 

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