Modfan Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Might be if you believe the GFS Rather not have all the rain here; it has been fairly dry since Dorian passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Day 8-9 on the Euro is not exactly in the same ballpark as day 16 on the Goofus. Because the Euro was pretty spot on with Dorian at an even shorter lead The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Modfan said: Rather not have all the rain here; have been fairly dry since Dorian passed Hopefully we'll be able to help you out, and take some of that rain off your hands next week up here Modfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Because the Euro was pretty spot on with Dorian at an even shorter lead The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days Lol...nice point!! Euro hasn't been all too good lately with regard to TC development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Because the Euro was pretty spot on with Dorian at an even shorter lead The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 114 6z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 144 blocked in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same. They never are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Bigger threat in the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same. Well we know they aren't the same...but the point remains not to trust any one depiction too much at this stage. Certainly an interesting development overnight...but buying in to something like this at this stage, is not prudent yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 Eh, most of those ens members are offshore, even earlier on by FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Eh, most of those ens members are offshore, even earlier on by FL. Yes the strongest ones curve east ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Eh, most of those ens members are offshore, even earlier on by FL. Yup, that's why its such a low chance of a strike up here. Oh well, it was fun imagining the potential while it lasted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Day 8-9 on the Euro is not exactly in the same ballpark as day 16 on the Goofus. Point being, Get it to day 3 and then we will talk, Don't matter which model has it, We all know how tropical systems work, And generally not as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 NHC had a low bias in the 2-day and 5-day genesis probabilities last year. 70 percent forecast probabilities verified in development between 85 and 90 percent of the time and 80 percent 5-day probabilities verified in development 90 percent of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Not sure what the other Mets feel about this new "Bahama bomber" potential ... but the more I look over things, this appears to be a greater confidence that a TC will be handled, with limited/no confidence should the former actually happen... That is a highly unusual total handling in the larger synoptic scope/evolution ...noooot typically how we get a TC to run the course up the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, not many climate players are really even identifiable. Typology: ...just off the top of memory... 1 .. there is usually a 300 to 200 mb escape jet running ENE over/out of the NE U.S. region 2 .. some form of negative anomaly is settling into the 90W-80W region nearing mid latitudes over eastern N/A 3 .. some form of blocking ridge ( be it anchored in planetary wave and/or nodal cut-off ...) is lingering between 60W and 70 W over the western Atlantic Basin. ... We really only vaguely at best can identify these structures in whole based upon the operational Euro from D3.5 through D8... What the Euro is attempting to do, is pin the fledgling cyclone near the vicinity of the Bahamas and bide time ... waiting to evolve ridging and associate lower tropospheric surface +PP N of the system. This lobes over the top, ...finally, out there in the inherently less likely to even verify time frame ( anyway ) the western side of that configuration at last happens to set up a steering field to finally bring it up the coast. ... I mean, objectively, you see where I'm going...? I'd put this entirety at low likeliness at best. I suppose it is not impossible.. Fact of that matter, the models don't "really" model things that are "im"possible. Perhaps less likely ...sure.. for whatever reason. Anyway, I'd more inclined to suggest that if said ridging does lobe over top like that ...this thing might end up bumped agonizingly slowly into the interior SE somewhere ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes the strongest ones curve east ots What I meant is genesis/development related, not track. 66hr ecens are clustered off of Florida. I hope we all know that a weak wave deep in the tropics is, trackwise, pointless to obsess over..especially at the weenie range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure what the other Mets feel about this new "Bahama bomber" potential ... but the more I look over things, this appears to be a greater confidence that a TC will be handled, much less so in any track guidance type of scenario should former happen... That is a highly unusual total handling in the larger synoptic scope/evolution ...noooot typically how we get a TC to run the course up the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, not many climate players are really even identifiable. Typology: ...just off the top of memory... 1 .. there is usually a 300 to 200 mb escape jet running ENE over/out of the NE U.S. region 2 .. some form of negative anomaly is settling into the 90W-80W region nearing mid latitudes over eastern N/A 3 .. some form of blocking ridge ( be it anchored in planetary wave and/or nodal cut-off ...) is lingering between 60W and 70 W over the western Atlantic Basin. ... We really only vaguely at best can identify these structures in whole based upon the operational Euro from D3.5 through D8... What the Euro is attempting to do, is pin the fledgling cyclone near the vicinity of the Bahamas and bide time ... waiting to evolve ridging and associate lower tropospheric surface +PP N of the system. This lobes over the top, ...finally, out there in the inherently less likely to even verify time frame ( anyway ) the western side of that configuration at last happens to set up a steering field to finally bring it up the coast. ... I mean, objectively, you see where I'm going...? Not impossible.. Fact of that matter, the models don't "really" model things that are "im"possible. Perhaps less likely ...sure.. for whatever reason. I put this entirety at low likeliness at best. Anyway, I'd more inclined to suggest that if said ridging does lobe over top like that ...this thing might end up bumped agonizingly slowly into the interior SE somewhere ... I think anybody who is even remotely interested in Meteorology, and hasn't been living under a Rock for the last 30 years, would put this at a "Low Probability of it getting up the east coast to threaten the Northeast; even without considering all that you just mentioned. But your analysis just makes it that much more clear how little chance this has of getting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 These next 14-days are going to be extremely intriguing and the east coast should be on heightened alert. Environmental conditions across the Caribbean, adjacent Atlantic waters, and in the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for TC development and strengthening. when it comes to the east coast, it's very hard to say with certainty what we're looking at, but many of the signals within the medium to long-range are a little on the concerning side. All the pieces you want to see for an east coast threat are there, however, we don't know how they'll evolve. Given those pieces are there though...this needs to be watched extremely closely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: What's it going to do in Philly? have a cheesesteak, maybe throw some batteries at Santa. What else is there to do in philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: These next 14-days are going to be extremely intriguing and the east coast should be on heightened alert. Environmental conditions across the Caribbean, adjacent Atlantic waters, and in the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for TC development and strengthening. when it comes to the east coast, it's very hard to say with certainty what we're looking at, but many of the signals within the medium to long-range are a little on the concerning side. All the pieces you want to see for an east coast threat are there, however, we don't know how they'll evolve. Given those pieces are there though...this needs to be watched extremely closely. Just in time for the peak of hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Just in time for the peak of hurricane season. Yes sir. Very appropriate timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 There's a Kelvin wave crossing the MDR in the next couple weeks, which should also encourage development. Should be an interesting period for tracking at any rate. Beats endless talk of dews and changing leaves at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 At least it seems all the pieces will be on the chess board. Should be fun to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This. Start broadly and hone in on details once something pops a well defined center. I'll probably be the first to right off SNE right off the bat like 99.9% of the time...hell...a few years back that Hurricane (forget which one) where it was 3-days out and some models had it coming to us I told people at school we had no shot. Anyways...this is just entirely different...there are too many signals which allude to not writing this off. Even if it's like a 10% chance...that's much higher than usual. 28 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Just in time for the peak of hurricane season. climo FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'll probably be the first to right off SNE right off the bat like 99.9% of the time...hell...a few years back that Hurricane (forget which one) where it was 3-days out and some models had it coming to us I told people at school we had no shot. Anyways...this is just entirely different...there are too many signals which allude to not writing this off. Even if it's like a 10% chance...that's much higher than usual. climo FTW Hermine? The one that sat south of LI and spun itself out? Or maybe the J storm in 2017, whatever its name was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Even the local NECN met broadcast is alluding to a heightened potential late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Hermine? The one that sat south of LI and spun itself out? Or maybe the J storm in 2017, whatever its name was... Jose in 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Yeah Jose. What's funny is I think that ended up being a "closer call" after the fujiwara Anyways what makes me nervous about this is the lead time to warn people may not be very much..not saying anything major is going to happen but this is a perfect place to bring up the topic. If/when we do get a big hit...the chaos alone is going to be disastrous. You would hope there could be a good 7-8 day lead time...but realistically the lead time may only be 3-4 days...that's just not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 I forget what the lead time was on Gloria. I assume it was considerable as it was a Cape Verde storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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