Hoth Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 lol congrats Portugal and Spain on the cane per the fantasy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 0Z ICON might of been fun if it went out further.. but it's all a fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Euro gone wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 This run. Two canes near the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 It's a dream scenario for Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 It's everything we all have been hoping and waiting so patiently for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Ummm wow! 95L really has nowhere else to go. Definitely interesting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 EURO is a epic disaster up here.. two canes 2 to 3 days apart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: EURO is a epic disaster up here.. two canes 2 to 3 days apart Every model has the first storm on the east coast except the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Well that Euro run was interesting. Another day, another fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ... now that's one that should be interesting - It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ... now that's one that should be interesting - It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going. A fairly healthy looking disturbance at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 UKMET started this yesterday at noon .The 0Z has a quick recurve south of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Actually ... to be fair ... every model has at one time or another, depicted a spin up in that region going back some four days- it's just not been very consistent, nor did they have the benefit of having an actual disturbance there to lend confidence in anything other than a phantom - it just makes it hard to know 'what' is the real origin. That's the problem with a fractal factorization running along with any propagated dynamic system - some emergence is legit... others, not so much. Anyway, I've been looking out over the CV traffic in the models and just like every year between late August onwards ... every guidance has instantiated a different TC at different times, both within their own discontinuities ...and with respect to one another - it's that buck shot time of year in the tropics. Every seabird's wake vortice seems to trundle off into the history books - It's been a good teaser year, though, so far.. Because we have this modeling earnest trough carve-out tendency in the extended at least excuse imaginable going on...and every time that happens... if there happens to be a phantom within grasping range it becomes the pen for the posting author. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 6z Euro has a 983 off the Florida Georgia line ( see what I did there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro has a 983 off the Florida Georgia line ( see what I did there) Looks like a threat to Alabama. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Fun times ahead, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like a threat to Alabama. State wide evacuation order likely...……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 What's it going to do in Philly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Now we’re in business. But are any of the east coast/NE impacts plausible from a met standpoint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 These runs are like the 384hr blizzards the GFS will have soon, Let me know when were 3 days out if there still there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like a threat to Alabama. Might be if you believe the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: These runs are like the 384hr blizzards the GFS will have soon, Let me know when were 3 days out if there still there. Day 8-9 on the Euro is not exactly in the same ballpark as day 16 on the Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Now we’re in business. But are any of the east coast/NE impacts plausible from a met standpoint? Lots of wind and rain. It looks pretty fierce at 850mb. Need to see more panels between 216 and 240. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Might be if you believe the GFS Definitely possible if it stays on the weak side and develops a bit later. Strong models UKMET/ECMWF) develop early from what i can see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Definitely possible if it stays on the weak side and develops a bit later. Strong models UKMET/ECMWF) develop early from what i can see . Most of the 12z tropical guidance shifted North with landfall near Jacksonville in about 72 hours. FWIW, the 06z GEFS were very unimpressed with a weak storm gradually making it into the Western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Definitely possible if it stays on the weak side and develops a bit later. Strong models UKMET/ECMWF) develop early from what i can see . 6z EPS rolling out now has an intial 1003 just east of the northern Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z EPS rolling out now has an intial 1003 just east of the northern Bahamas Mean with a 1002 over Abaco at 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 66 Hrs Florida 1000 mb mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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