Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

So now it is all coming out. Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who serves at the pleasure of the president said that NOAA officials would be fired if they do not rectify the situation from the Birmingham National Weather Service's tweet that Alabama would not be affected by Dorian. That is why NOAA made the statement last week. You can get fired by a scientific truthful weather forecast because it contradicts the inaccuracy of the president's comments. Unreal.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

So now it is all coming out. Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who serves at the pleasure of the president said that NOAA officials would be fired if they do not rectify the situation from the Birmingham National Weather Service's tweet that Alabama would not be affected by Dorian. That is why NOAA made the statement last week. You can get fired by a scientific truthful weather forecast because it contradicts the inaccuracy of the president's comments. Unreal.

Puts a rather shabby light on things, doesn't it. Base. Disgraceful. Outrageous. And sadly, unsurprising.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

So now it is all coming out. Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who serves at the pleasure of the president said that NOAA officials would be fired if they do not rectify the situation from the Birmingham National Weather Service's tweet that Alabama would not be affected by Dorian. That is why NOAA made the statement last week. You can get fired by a scientific truthful weather forecast because it contradicts the inaccuracy of the president's comments. Unreal.

This won't happen. He 'threatened' to fire them. Won't happen because yes, it is ridiculous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I hear ya...it wouldn't take much to out-do what Dorian delivered here that's for sure.  

Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK?

The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) 

Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK?

The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) 

Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity 

Anytime you have a storm moving parallel to the coast you have reduced swell. That being said we had lots of barrels here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, correnjim1 said:

i wouldn't hold my breath

I'm not, and I don't think anyone else when it comes to a Northeast landfall/impacts a week+ out.  Just implying that it looks like its going to be an active period next month so anything can happen. One well-timed trough or build in of a ridge and things could get interesting up the EC. First ingredient is there, waves off Africa with lots of coming activity

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK?

I think EPO had more rain and less wind than ACK.  Hope that's true for wind; the remains of Arthur several years back had our logging contractor salvaging a lot of windthrow on the land we manage in Cutler.  Would prefer not to have a repeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those of you that are interested, you can watch the first episode of Hurricane Man.  I thought the episode which featured Hurricane Michael was well done. I am not sure if this link will work if you don't use facebook.   https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F317ye9a

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

For those of you that are interested, you can watch the first episode of Hurricane Man.  I thought the episode which featured Hurricane Michael was well done. I am not sure if this link will work if you don't use facebook.   https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F317ye9a

Won't work for those of us who have either cut the cord or, like me, never had any cable or any other "TV provider".  Would love to see Josh's show, but I get turned down with a message saying "your xfinity service does not include this program".  I only use them for internet and mobile, which apparently isn't enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Won't work for those of us who have either cut the cord or, like me, never had any cable or any other "TV provider".  Would love to see Josh's show, but I get turned down with a message saying "your xfinity service does not include this program".  I only use them for internet and mobile, which apparently isn't enough.

Download sci go app its free for the first 2 episodes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Download sci go app its free for the first 2 episodes

Near as I can tell by googling, it still requires a sign-in, it's marketed as "free with your TV provider". I don't see anything about free episodes without a sign-in, do you have a link that says different?

Note: I do not want to sign up for any free trials that require giving up a credit card number in advance. Been burned before doing that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is persistent in forming a tropical system down in the tropics and bringing it up north towards or over the East Coast.  Way out in fantasy land but run after run has a system with a trough coming in from the west.  If it forms and how it interacts is unknown but if you are a tropical fan this is a setup you would want.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

GFS is persistent in forming a tropical system down in the tropics and bringing it up north towards or over the East Coast.  Way out in fantasy land but run after run has a system with a trough coming in from the west.  If it forms and how it interacts is unknown but if you are a tropical fan this is a setup you would want.  

James' Patriots season nearly canceled on that run. Yeah, that pattern could get a cane into NE. We'll keep an eye on it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

GFS is persistent in forming a tropical system down in the tropics and bringing it up north towards or over the East Coast.  Way out in fantasy land but run after run has a system with a trough coming in from the west.  If it forms and how it interacts is unknown but if you are a tropical fan this is a setup you would want.  

Yeah, there's a decent signal for a MJO wave later this month into early October. Could get interesting with increased activity and midwest/east trough pattern with the north atlantic ridge. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if there's some pan-systemic nature to the planetary system of teleconnectors, air, sea and land, that "gestalt" favors those "MJO wave" looks at this time of year(s). Thing is, I'm not ready to doubt those looks out of hand because we've actually hit some of those.  Most of the time we end up with something flatter/tamer, more climate-like in terms of autumn amplitude, but there have been some oddities increasing in frequency, too.   For example, there have been more October verified patterns either conducive to snow, or supportive of, than I can remember ever occurring through the previous 25 years before 2000.  In fact, 1/3 to 1/2 of those years since, and I'd be willing to throw those white thanks givings in recent years into the mix of the "October" distinction - I mean obviously the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about Julian calendar temporal designations when it's cycling through its anomalies... etc..

Obviously if one is concerned with TCs affecting the eastern seaboard, some sort of negative anomaly ivo the OV while there is a western Atlantic Basin subtropical ridge helps your cause.  TC gets guided into the key slot region of the outer Bahamas and then the perennial over-zealous PNAP structure completes the relay and there we go. But, seeing as we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time setting that quintessential pattern in the models, it also seems we have one on the D11 charts at all times. 

So I guess in short .. I wonder if the models are like setting themselves up for over-production of TCs in the east because of their predilection for these pattern orientations.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both the 12z GFS and the ECMWF show an organized TC in the Southern Bahamas in the Day 9-10 time frame. Obviously a lot can change, including land interaction, but the setup is pretty intriguing for the East coast and New England with a well timed, relatively deep trough moving through the lakes.

If the TC arrives early or the front speeds up, it could punt the storm OTS like the GFS. The Euro verbatim looks like it would be somewhat of a phase, similar to Floyd. 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_11.png

091500.png
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro run at 12z is looking rather Ominous for the east coast 9-10 days from now.  Saw it over on the Tropical headquarters forum...take a gander if you want to see something in a precarious spot, with a big trough digging in.

Trough is moving east not digging. Fantasy land 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Trough is moving east not digging. Fantasy land 

Definitely Fantasy Land....but being it's Fantasy Land, anything can happen and change.  Just making some conversation about the latest run.  We all know its always a very low chance something Tropical visits us up here..but there's not much else to talk about currently.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

kind of funny ...all these qualifiers why a day 9 or day 10 is more intriguing cuz -

..of course it is ...  

:) 

heh.. I've give that position/TC there about 10% chance of being real ( intensity notwithstanding..), over the base-line 4%, more typical of at that time range. 

which of course means there's 90% chance to be excited over just about anything else.  ... But, it's a hind-sight 2020 game of 'see' - cuz if it's there, the conclusion of foresight will of course not include the dump luck shit spray factor of models too often having phantoms there at that time range and therefore once in a while will seemingly get dapple right. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...