wxeyeNH Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 So now it is all coming out. Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who serves at the pleasure of the president said that NOAA officials would be fired if they do not rectify the situation from the Birmingham National Weather Service's tweet that Alabama would not be affected by Dorian. That is why NOAA made the statement last week. You can get fired by a scientific truthful weather forecast because it contradicts the inaccuracy of the president's comments. Unreal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: So now it is all coming out. Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who serves at the pleasure of the president said that NOAA officials would be fired if they do not rectify the situation from the Birmingham National Weather Service's tweet that Alabama would not be affected by Dorian. That is why NOAA made the statement last week. You can get fired by a scientific truthful weather forecast because it contradicts the inaccuracy of the president's comments. Unreal. Puts a rather shabby light on things, doesn't it. Base. Disgraceful. Outrageous. And sadly, unsurprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: So now it is all coming out. Wilbur Ross the Secretary of Commerce who serves at the pleasure of the president said that NOAA officials would be fired if they do not rectify the situation from the Birmingham National Weather Service's tweet that Alabama would not be affected by Dorian. That is why NOAA made the statement last week. You can get fired by a scientific truthful weather forecast because it contradicts the inaccuracy of the president's comments. Unreal. This won't happen. He 'threatened' to fire them. Won't happen because yes, it is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 this is a PRE..that Dorian setup was meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 10 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: this is a PRE..that Dorian setup was meh That Dorian set up was a Total nothing Burger for everybody except the Cape/Islands in SNE. If I got .01" I was fortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That Dorian set up was a Total nothing Burger for everybody except the Cape/Islands in SNE. If I got .01" I was fortunate. Well Dorian and its setup are gone now so maybe we'll see a little something different next week that will be favorable to an EC/Northeast impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Well Dorian and its setup are gone now so maybe we'll see a little something different next week that will be favorable to an EC/Northeast impact I hear ya...it wouldn't take much to out-do what Dorian delivered here that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: Well Dorian and its setup are gone now so maybe we'll see a little something different next week that will be favorable to an EC/Northeast impact i wouldn't hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Should be an active few weeks coming up, I fully expect a 38 redux or two. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I hear ya...it wouldn't take much to out-do what Dorian delivered here that's for sure. Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK? The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Let’s hope the Atlantic becomes a “rumba line” of storms the next few weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK? The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity Anytime you have a storm moving parallel to the coast you have reduced swell. That being said we had lots of barrels here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 5 hours ago, correnjim1 said: i wouldn't hold my breath I'm not, and I don't think anyone else when it comes to a Northeast landfall/impacts a week+ out. Just implying that it looks like its going to be an active period next month so anything can happen. One well-timed trough or build in of a ridge and things could get interesting up the EC. First ingredient is there, waves off Africa with lots of coming activity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK? I think EPO had more rain and less wind than ACK. Hope that's true for wind; the remains of Arthur several years back had our logging contractor salvaging a lot of windthrow on the land we manage in Cutler. Would prefer not to have a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 That eye Wall or Dorian. Strongest ever reported by Josh. 185 sustained ....just a eye Wall of total devestation. Made Andrew look almost weak in comparison (185 to 160) Most of S FL doesn’t realize the bomb they dodged 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 For those of you that are interested, you can watch the first episode of Hurricane Man. I thought the episode which featured Hurricane Michael was well done. I am not sure if this link will work if you don't use facebook. https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F317ye9a 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: For those of you that are interested, you can watch the first episode of Hurricane Man. I thought the episode which featured Hurricane Michael was well done. I am not sure if this link will work if you don't use facebook. https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F317ye9a Won't work for those of us who have either cut the cord or, like me, never had any cable or any other "TV provider". Would love to see Josh's show, but I get turned down with a message saying "your xfinity service does not include this program". I only use them for internet and mobile, which apparently isn't enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: Won't work for those of us who have either cut the cord or, like me, never had any cable or any other "TV provider". Would love to see Josh's show, but I get turned down with a message saying "your xfinity service does not include this program". I only use them for internet and mobile, which apparently isn't enough. Download sci go app its free for the first 2 episodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Download sci go app its free for the first 2 episodes Near as I can tell by googling, it still requires a sign-in, it's marketed as "free with your TV provider". I don't see anything about free episodes without a sign-in, do you have a link that says different? Note: I do not want to sign up for any free trials that require giving up a credit card number in advance. Been burned before doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 GFS is persistent in forming a tropical system down in the tropics and bringing it up north towards or over the East Coast. Way out in fantasy land but run after run has a system with a trough coming in from the west. If it forms and how it interacts is unknown but if you are a tropical fan this is a setup you would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 22 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: GFS is persistent in forming a tropical system down in the tropics and bringing it up north towards or over the East Coast. Way out in fantasy land but run after run has a system with a trough coming in from the west. If it forms and how it interacts is unknown but if you are a tropical fan this is a setup you would want. James' Patriots season nearly canceled on that run. Yeah, that pattern could get a cane into NE. We'll keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 56 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: GFS is persistent in forming a tropical system down in the tropics and bringing it up north towards or over the East Coast. Way out in fantasy land but run after run has a system with a trough coming in from the west. If it forms and how it interacts is unknown but if you are a tropical fan this is a setup you would want. Yeah, there's a decent signal for a MJO wave later this month into early October. Could get interesting with increased activity and midwest/east trough pattern with the north atlantic ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 I'm wondering if there's some pan-systemic nature to the planetary system of teleconnectors, air, sea and land, that "gestalt" favors those "MJO wave" looks at this time of year(s). Thing is, I'm not ready to doubt those looks out of hand because we've actually hit some of those. Most of the time we end up with something flatter/tamer, more climate-like in terms of autumn amplitude, but there have been some oddities increasing in frequency, too. For example, there have been more October verified patterns either conducive to snow, or supportive of, than I can remember ever occurring through the previous 25 years before 2000. In fact, 1/3 to 1/2 of those years since, and I'd be willing to throw those white thanks givings in recent years into the mix of the "October" distinction - I mean obviously the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about Julian calendar temporal designations when it's cycling through its anomalies... etc.. Obviously if one is concerned with TCs affecting the eastern seaboard, some sort of negative anomaly ivo the OV while there is a western Atlantic Basin subtropical ridge helps your cause. TC gets guided into the key slot region of the outer Bahamas and then the perennial over-zealous PNAP structure completes the relay and there we go. But, seeing as we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time setting that quintessential pattern in the models, it also seems we have one on the D11 charts at all times. So I guess in short .. I wonder if the models are like setting themselves up for over-production of TCs in the east because of their predilection for these pattern orientations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Euro run at 12z is looking rather Ominous for the east coast 9-10 days from now. Saw it over on the Tropical headquarters forum...take a gander if you want to see something in a precarious spot, with a big trough digging in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Both the 12z GFS and the ECMWF show an organized TC in the Southern Bahamas in the Day 9-10 time frame. Obviously a lot can change, including land interaction, but the setup is pretty intriguing for the East coast and New England with a well timed, relatively deep trough moving through the lakes. If the TC arrives early or the front speeds up, it could punt the storm OTS like the GFS. The Euro verbatim looks like it would be somewhat of a phase, similar to Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Euro run at 12z is looking rather Ominous for the east coast 9-10 days from now. Saw it over on the Tropical headquarters forum...take a gander if you want to see something in a precarious spot, with a big trough digging in. Trough is moving east not digging. Fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Trough is moving east not digging. Fantasy land Definitely Fantasy Land....but being it's Fantasy Land, anything can happen and change. Just making some conversation about the latest run. We all know its always a very low chance something Tropical visits us up here..but there's not much else to talk about currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 kind of funny ...all these qualifiers why a day 9 or day 10 is more intriguing cuz - ..of course it is ... heh.. I've give that position/TC there about 10% chance of being real ( intensity notwithstanding..), over the base-line 4%, more typical of at that time range. which of course means there's 90% chance to be excited over just about anything else. ... But, it's a hind-sight 2020 game of 'see' - cuz if it's there, the conclusion of foresight will of course not include the dump luck shit spray factor of models too often having phantoms there at that time range and therefore once in a while will seemingly get dapple right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Kind of crazy seeing the GFS and EURO almost the same that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 No more or less crazy than this for the same time period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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