SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

[Cyclone-68]

10 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I was just thinking about that.  We had 6 in the 22 years between 1938 and 1960 and a scattering until Bob in 1991 but nothing since then.  It's interesting that just as the frequency of snow storms increased in 1992 we haven't had a landfalling hurricane.  Is there a correlation?

Interesting... How were the 50’s for snow around here?

[Bostonseminole]

hopefully GFS is wrong but likely a hurricane coming for the islands in about 10 days.. #Humberto #94l

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS operational ( ...haven't paid much attention to the ensemble members/means ...) has been particularly fanatical about over-coming typical track perturbation odds or order to no-problem streak a CV cyclone clear across the Atlantic basin ...just so it can quintessentially end up thru the "key slot" lat/lon near/NE of PR.  

Dorian just did this ... perhaps there is something endemic to this season that is improving base-line odds? Actually inclined to think otherwise ( ironically..), but here we are.  Unsure - but, I jokingly threw up a post several days ago that showed an idealized denudation of southern New England just like all the responsible and sanely objective posters claim to want to avoid (    )  ... Anyway, the GFS' giggedy may just be the times and the bell-curve of seasonality, and we happen to be introducing buck-shot cumulative chances to the modeling circuitry and there we go - something gets thru.   

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I was just thinking about that.  We had 6 in the 22 years between 1938 and 1960 and a scattering until Bob in 1991 but nothing since then.  It's interesting that just as the frequency of snow storms increased in 1992 we haven't had a landfalling hurricane.  Is there a correlation?

I don't understand this reticence or dismissive sort of disregard tendency that goes on surrounding Gloria in 1985. 

Fact of the matter is, that was a Cat 1 hurricane moving at 30 mph,; combining 75 mph winds with a 30 mph forward motion imposed a significant threat... And at minimum 2/3rds of that power verified at the ground .. causing a significant grid impact even across much of the interior - it's broadly eastern limbed tropical storm force wind field penetrate considerably far inland.  

I was living in Acton Massachusetts at the time... about 30 miles as the crow flies west/NW of Boston up Rt 2, and even that far removed we had many turbine roars with leaf litter flitting over roof tops and tree canopies. Plenty of tree damage downed and tangled up with a spaghetti of powerlines was dangerous, to mention... and we were out for days in that..  It was a well forecast, beautifully behaved "Long Island Express" model CV cane, so this "Meg" treatment is a baffling and bullshit frankly... 

My hypothesis is, that was the first of the modern superior coverage/dystopian histrionic storm era - really, the event heralded it in, and  'dystopia for entertainment' media had begun.  And wouldn't you know it... because it had to 'just be' a Cat 1 and not a Cat 13 to really snort the storm coke ... Ruined people's high - t may as well 've been a bust.   Perhaps not exactly?  No.  But there is  this palpable storm lust that goes on with these things in the modern era of cinematic reality we stimulate ourselves with, such that typical storm topography isn't quite textured enough anymore to meet with predisposed unrealistic expectations.   Few long words... but Gloria was not a mere scattering - it was a perfect inclusion in the 30 year periodicity for LIEs ...  If you guys are waitin' on some kind of Cat 4 run from 50 miles E of Cape Hatteras to Mt Washington... hope you live for 10,000 years because that's probably what the return rate is on this preconditioned idea of storm excitement. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Norfolk gusted to 64 .Chessy Buoy 83, impressive 

[Cyclone-68]

I suspect hitting at low tide and it’s timing was also a large factor in people’s perception of Gloria. If it did the opposite it would have been much more notable IMHO. People also tend to use ‘38 as the standard bearer in much the same way older snow weenies use ‘78 to compare every snowstorm  

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I suspect hitting at low tide was also a large factor in people’s perception of Gloria. If it did the opposite it would have been much more notable IMHO

No rain, salt taste in the air. Backside of all vegetation turned brown. Gloria was supposed to be 38 the day before. I had to evacuate my home on the beach. I stupidly left my motorcycle which was sandblasted to death when the cover was torn off. Insurance redid it but dumb move on my part. As far as impacts go, some tree loss but about as minimum as possible considering the lead up hype.

[Cyclone-68]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

No rain, salt taste in the air. Backside of all vegetation turned brown. Gloria was supposed to be 38 the day before. I had to evacuate my home on the beach. I stupidly left my motorcycle which was sandblasted to death when the cover was torn off. Insurance redid it but dumb move on my part. As far as impacts go, some tree loss but about as minimum as possible considering the lead up hype.

It absolutely didn’t “perform” as it was once forecasted to do. And I remember the many ‘38 comparisons at the time too 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I suspect hitting at low tide and it’s timing was also a large factor in people’s perception of Gloria. If it did the opposite it would have been much more notable IMHO. People also tend to use ‘38 as the standard bearer in much the same way older snow weenies use ‘78 to compare every snowstorm  

Agree here ...  however, I was attempting to plumb that a little deeper into exposing the "fault of our gods" if you will...  

If folks were not inundated so much with increasing frequency and vividness of descriptions ... ( and mass media is hugely part of the phenomenon when they headline casts with " ..compared to x-y-z" ) ...

Sometimes a storm is just a storm.  It's not a failure or a bust or whatever, because it didn't touch-off some odd dopamine release that seems to trigger in some individuals.  If anyone 'negates' Gloria, they are futile to listen/read. 

I suppose you could say the "hype" itself busted... but that's the human faulting -

[CapturedNature]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't understand this reticence or dismissive sort of disregard tendency that goes on surrounding Gloria in 1985.

 

Not for me.  Gloria was way more impactful in Connecticut than Bob was.  I only mentioned Bob because it is the last hurricane to make landfall in New England.  There was a lot more damage here from Gloria than Bob but I did have way more rain from Bob.

The thing I've never understood is the dismissive attitude people give to category 1 hurricanes or even tropical storms.  I stood atop Mount Washington in 75MPH winds and the one thing I remember thinking was "So this is a category 1 hurricane?" and thinking I would never think the lessor of one again.  It seems like everyone just likes to focus on the extremes whether it's weather, climate change or politics.  All extreme, all the time.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Not for me.  Gloria was way more impactful in Connecticut than Bob was.  I only mentioned Bob because it is the last hurricane to make landfall in New England.  There was a lot more damage here from Gloria than Bob but I did have way more rain from Bob.

The thing I've never understood is the dismissive attitude people give to category 1 hurricanes or even tropical storms.  I stood atop Mount Washington in 75MPH winds and the one thing I remember thinking was "So this is a category 1 hurricane?" and thinking I would never think the lessor of one again.  It seems like everyone just likes to focus on the extremes whether it's weather, climate change or politics.  All extreme, all the time.

Vice versa here, Bob over Gloria.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Not for me.  Gloria was way more impactful in Connecticut than Bob was.  I only mentioned Bob because it is the last hurricane to make landfall in New England.  There was a lot more damage here from Gloria than Bob but I did have way more rain from Bob.

The thing I've never understood is the dismissive attitude people give to category 1 hurricanes or even tropical storms.  I stood atop Mount Washington in 75MPH winds and the one thing I remember thinking was "So this is a category 1 hurricane?" and thinking I would never think the lessor of one again.  It seems like everyone just likes to focus on the extremes whether it's weather, climate change or politics.  All extreme, all the time.

Actually ...  weather, yes... 

Climate change?  the opposite ... there is a wanton counter-culture toward the veracity of science, itself, a movement that attempts to evade the implication and specter of CC...  The cause for that is hugely digressive and complex, so -

I get what you mean by weather though and agreed - I touched on that since... We are preconditioned to the ever more illustrious cinema, so much so that if things fall short of expectations that get us as stimulated/aroused .. "there" in the "movie", there is a tendency toward dismissal.  Basically ...we're all assholes in that way - well, "people" are.   A person isn't...but we know how that goes - 

Anyway, Gloria was an event that broke up a growing number of dearth years and that's just unequivocal -

[Bostonseminole]

Hazey, you ever tried these guys? Man they are funny as shit on Twitter

 

 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Hazey, you ever tried these guys? Man they are funny as shit on Twitter

 

 

 

[Bostonseminole]

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOVA 
SCOTIA, AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN 
NEWFOUNDLAND. 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA, 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, THE MAGDALEN 
ISLANDS AND NORTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE, THE MOST LIKELY TRACK 
PROJECTION BRINGS HURRICANE DORIAN SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES ON 
SATURDAY, PASSING NEAR OR OVER HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT, 
AND THEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WATERS OR WESTERN 
NEWFOUNDLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. 

SEVERE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, NOVA SCOTIA, 
WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND, AND THE QUEBEC LOWER NORTH SHORE, AND THE 
MAGDALEN ISLANDS. LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTS 
OF NOVA SCOTIA, NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
ST. LAWRENCE. FINALLY, STORM SURGE, COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND 
POUNDING SURF, MAY GIVE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE 
EDWARD ISLAND, NEWFOUNDLAND, AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. 

A. WIND. 

MOST REGIONS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 90 TO 110 
KM/H, BEGINNING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING, IN 
THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA, AND TOWARDS EVENING FOR 
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS, AND SOUTHWESTERN 
NEWFOUNDLAND. NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK, WINDS 
WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE OF 120 KM/H OR MORE. BEHIND THE STORM, 
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE NORTHWESTERLIES. 
WIND IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY FOLIAGE ON THE TREES, 
CAUSING BROKEN BRANCHES AND TREE FALLS, RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES, 
BLOCKING OF ROADS, AND OTHER TYPE OF DAMAGES. 

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA 
AND EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA, WESTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, AND THE 
MAGDALEN ISLANDS. 

B. RAINFALL. 

RAINFALL WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR AS TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY LEAD TO 
FLOODING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA 
SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, AND THE MAGDALEN ISLAND WHERE 50 TO 
100 MM ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING A SWATH IN 
EXCESS OF 150 MM NORTH AND WEST OF DORIAN'S TRACK. SOME DISTRICTS 
HAVE RECEIVED LARGE QUANTITIES OF RAIN LAST WEEK, AND WITH THE SOIL 
MOISTURE STILL VERY HIGH, EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY EXACERBATE THE 
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEVERE WINDS MAY RESULT 
IN DAMAGE DUE TO FALLING TREES. 

RAINFALL WARNING FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA, WESTERN PRINCE EDWARD 
ISLAND, EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. 



C. SURGE/WAVES. 

THERE WILL ALSO BE ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF 
NOVA SCOTIA, NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. WAVES OF 7 
TO 10 METRES WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA ON 
SATURDAY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WAVES 
WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WAVES 
NEARING 12 METRES. WAVES OF 4 TO 7 METRES WILL IMPACT NORTH FACING 
COASTS OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. NOTE THAT WAVES WILL BREAK 
HIGHER ALONG SOME OF THE COASTLINES, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE 
LIKELY. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. 

STORM SURGE IS AN ISSUE, MAINLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA 
SCOTIA, THE NORTH COAST OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, SOUTHWESTERN 
NEWFOUNDLAND, AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING INUNDATION LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDE. 
HOWEVER, WHEN COMBINED WITH ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF, THERE MAY BE 
FLOODING AND OVERWASH OF WAVES. 

STORM SURGE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR BLANC SABLON, CHEVERY AND 
ANTICOSTI ISLAND, AS WELL AS THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS, OVERNIGHT

[CoastalWx]

Why can’t we get that. 

[CapturedNature]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

I agree with the language comment.  I've never understood the need for people to have to interject "colorful adjectives" in normal speech.  It's a free world though...

[Bostonseminole]

Hope the cottage is still there. We have some protection with the dunes but.

You can see St Lawrence in the distance other side of dunes

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[CapturedNature]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ...  weather, yes... 

Climate change?  the opposite ... there is a wanton counter-culture toward the veracity of science, itself, a movement that attempts to evade the implication and specter of CC...  The cause for that is hugely digressive and complex, so -

I get what you mean by weather though and agreed - I touched on that since... We are preconditioned to the ever more illustrious cinema, so much so that if things fall short of expectations that get us as stimulated/aroused .. "there" in the "movie", there is a tendency toward dismissal.  Basically ...we're all assholes in that way - well, "people" are.   A person isn't...but we know how that goes - 

Anyway, Gloria was an event that broke up a growing number of dearth years and that's just unequivocal -

I respectfully disagree about people taking extremes on climate change.  There's the bury your head types and then there's the water world/Massachusetts will be like the tropics in a 100 years if we don't do anything types.  I see these extremes almost every day on other forums and I think it's why nothing gets done anymore.  Everyone takes an extreme perspective.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Scott, you want the destructive power of a hurricane?  i am so happy he isn't coming close enough for hurricane-force wind gusts.  I will take the heavy downpours and a few gusts to 45mph and call it a night.  Less of a power outage threat.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The models this morning have been on point with that turn to the east right as he got off the Cape Hatteras area.  He has swung way right recently but is gaining convective organization.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott, you want the destructive power of a hurricane?  i am so happy he isn't coming close enough for hurricane-force wind gusts.  I will take the heavy downpours and a few gusts to 45mph and call it a night.  Less of a power outage threat.

We’ll save you the hurricane winds for a winter storm when losing power has a higher ante....

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

We’ll save you the hurricane winds for a winter storm when losing power has a higher ante.

who is this James guy? It's like a different dude.

[correnjim1]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why can’t we get that. 

hurricanes hate us

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott, you want the destructive power of a hurricane?  i am so happy he isn't coming close enough for hurricane-force wind gusts.  I will take the heavy downpours and a few gusts to 45mph and call it a night.  Less of a power outage threat.

I kind of do, yeah. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I kind of do, yeah. 

Here's a real weather wennie, not just a lover of currier and ives snowflakes. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I respectfully disagree about people taking extremes on climate change.  There's the bury your head types and then there's the water world/Massachusetts will be like the tropics in a 100 years if we don't do anything types.  I see these extremes almost every day on other forums and I think it's why nothing gets done anymore.  Everyone takes an extreme perspective.

I think we're actually discussing similar aspect - 

Your talking point ( a valid one! ) has to do with people taking extremes in general -

I don't argue that and in fact.  I'm just offering plausible explanation(s) - it's endemic to society everywhere. 

No one wants to compromise on anything - rooted in a smoldering basis of identity crisis that is causally linked to the information boom.  Oh deal ... I'll try not to digress too far but, if we look back in history, every time information forcibly tsunamis'ed through a population, said population tended toward populist/nationalism ... Educated perspectives that at least attempt the virtuosity of an objective perspective... there is a global modality in play, and it fits that mold.  But, part of that is fear and insecurity, and contraction toward traditional perspectives is easier.  Thus, hard-liner in nature, less open-minded and less capable of compromised and/or seeing middle-grounds.  This happened before WW's I and II with the radio ...and a lot of conflict of the middle decades of last Century were also likely related to the advent of Television and the specter of outside influences triggering uncertainty in otherwise status-quo/regional biases.  Suddenly exposing the world to .... well, the world, isn't a good thing when said world has the power to destroy its self trying to protect traditionalist views.   We don't want Global duress ...because it wouldn't be like 1940 - not that that was good by any stretch.  

GW is part of that specter of uncertainty and fear - a lot of the denial is based on that, and that is why there is this apparently excessive polarization.  For those that contract, it's simply non-existent. For those that attempt to be realistic about from science/math and rationalist points of view ( however successful in objectivity, notwithstanding...), for those they get frustrated and then they push toward the other side and there goes the middle ground - poof. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Here's a real weather wennie, not just a lover of currier and ives snowflakes. 

Of course nobody wants to see anything bad happen to someone or people suffering. However, I didn't get into weather because of partly sunny skies with temps in the 70s.

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Of course nobody wants to see anything bad happen to someone or people suffering. However, I didn't get into weather because of partly sunny skies with temps in the 70s.

i don't know how weather people in San Diego deal with it.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

i don't know how weather people in San Diego deal with it.

I don't either, I gained a different perspective on destruction after the EF-1 tornado that lasted five minutes here in Harwich.  The day without power.  It was long enough without technology.  I just hate that.  I want to watch the Patriots.